The Open J: Jonnylons' Heat Offseason Run-down

Ok, so we are forced to watch the NBA Finals now for our basketball fix. It is like watching an old re-run of the Cosby show - its light, unoffensive, and the outcome is predictable. In fact, you've seen it before.

Needless to say, the Spurs area great organization run the right way. Even if they are not truly one of the all-time great teams, they keep winning championships and this one is practically gift-wrapped for them as the Lebrons just don't have enough.

So, let's focus on the Heat and their upcoming draft and the possible moves they could be making to be where they belong - in Cleveland's spot. (So it would seem Damon Jones made the right move after all...yeah, right.)

Big Target?

Rumor has it the Heat are looking to land either Rashard Lewis or Ron Artest. Well, you might as well add Shawn Marion or Amare Stoudemire to that list, too. All options are very much long shots, and it seems the Heat's chances will be tied to what other teams do first - meaning LA. Whatever option LA decides to take to appease crybaby Kobe Bryant will determine how this offseason goes down. If the Lakers deal for Jermaine O'neal (another crybaby) then that makes the market for Ron Artest basically Miami and...Miami. Other teams might step in - after all, nothing moves product in the offseason like a combination of hype, forgetfulness and a healthy dose of delusion.

Kind of like a night out.

Rashard Lewis isn't happening because the kid wants to get paid. He has been in the NBA seemingly forever, and now wants to play somewhere where he can get recognition - and a 10+ million per season paycheck. Miami has very little to offer in a sign-and-trade scenario with Seattle, so don't look for that to happen.

Ron Artest is a good possibility, but it is tied to what LA does. They have more to offer than the Heat, but would they take a chance on Artest playing with Kobe? Having Phil Jackson around could help - as he handled Artest's idol, Dennis Rodman. Stay tuned.

Amare Stoudamire or Shawn Marion? Possibly. There is speculation that the Suns are going to be retooling - they got a new GM in Steve "Blabbermouth" Kerr and they will also be looking to prove they are STILL not Bryan Colangelo's team (who simply went up to Toronto and turned that franchise around). Both players have big contracts that will be shopped. Expect a really high bidder to get one of them.

Another dark horse option could be Boris Diaw. He has his contract for 5 more seasons, at 9M a piece. The Suns might want to cut that fat off the roster since they are only into Marion for another 2 seasons and Amare, at 24, for another 4 seasons. The Heat have enough pieces to make a deal for Diaw work - starting with Jason Williams' one year 8.5M deal. That would give Kerr some flexibility next season.

Postseason Failure = Offseason Mess

This kind of brings us to the Suns, Heat, Mavs and Pistons. All these teams hit below expectations - the Suns and Mavs putting up some excellent numbers in the regular season. The Mavs being outdone by a better team; the Suns being outdone by a league office decision.

The Pistons fell to the Cavs mostly because they got too cocky while the Heat didn't produce at all this season because they were bloated from their championship - except for Wade and Zo, of course.

The other thing all these teams will be doing is retooling their rosters - which means we could see some big movement this offseason. Miami won't be able to do anything major, but could get involved with something major should they choose. If Detroit decides to go in a new direction, Billups could sign elsewhere which means the market for free agent point guards gets a little thicker. The Heat could swoop in and get someone at a better value since their services will have stiff competition.

And so goes the ripple effect: maybe the Pistons do away with Rasheed Wallace? Other PFs on the market could get cheaper, too.

With these teams rebuilding, they will be flooding the market with talents that could affect everything from how teams draft to whom they sign or trade for. Miami is bound to find a good deal.

Draft This

The Heat need a PG and they need to get younger and more athletic. There is one clear candidate that could answer these needs for the Heat: Javaris Crittenton. The freshman from Georgia Tech has big time scoring ability, height (6'5") and can play the point. He has to refine his game, and has to develop a consistent outside shot. Scouts view him as a bit of a project, but with strong upside.

He will probably be gone by the 20th pick.

About a month ago I was hollering and whooping for this guy to be drafted by the Heat. Now, it seems, everyone knows the kid and wants to get him. Even the Heat worked him out already, this past Tuesday. So who is left?

Gabe Pruitt might be a good pick. He has big time ability and played at USC, but it is not known if he would be a PG or a SG at the next level. He could play point, as he did from time to time in college, but he has a lot to learn about the postion. That said, he is an interesting physical talent that has plenty of size and scoring ability to make it in the NBA.

A more interesting pick, in my opinion, would be Italy's Marco Belinelli. As noted in a previous blog, the Heat have to turn to undervalued resources to supply their roster. Belinelli has been compared to Ray Allen, and has an excellent shot and can score from anywhere on the floor. He has enough athleticism to play one on one and get his shot, too - just don't look for him to play defense on an NBA level. Here are some highlights of him against Slovenia:



His contract status in Europe could require a buyout but Belinelli wants to play in the NBA. Probably projects to be a Mike Miller, Manu Ginobili or Brent Barry type of player.

Other guards to consider are Rodney Stuckey (Eastern Washington), Mustafa Shakur (Arizona) and Ayinde Ubaka (Cal). Stuckey is getting a lot of buzz as he works out for teams and demonstrates excellent ball-handling skills with a tremendous scoring ability. He probably projects to be a top 25 pick at this point and could be there for the Heat at 20.

Shakur has always been a promising prospect but has underdelivered while Ubaka had a big game against UCLA and was an all Pac-10 team member as well at MVP for the Bruins this season. These final two prospects project, right now, to be 2nd rounders.

There is also the mysterious Dominic James, from Marquette. He is super quick and loaded with athleticism, but is only 5'11". He can play the point, but plays more like a two guard. He may be available in the 2nd round as most mock drafts seem to forget about him entirely.

Other possibilities for the Heat at 39 are Zabian Dowdell - who the Heat worked out on this past Tuesday as well - and Florida's Taurean Green.

Most likely to happen? Miami drafts a want at #20 and a need at #39. That would be getting it backwards, it would seem, but given that the PG crop is mostly projects and backup-grade, it would seem Miami is just as likely to find what they need at the #39 spot as at the 20th. The other consideration is Riley's dislike for playing rookies and if the Heat are going to draft a PG, he most likely won't see any significant action unless the Heat grabbed Acie Law or Mike Conley - not likely to happen.

So expect Miami to draft accordingly, unless of course they deal the picks to shore up the roster.