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Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Ron Artest Would Be Perfect in Miami

That's right. Ron Artest.

Let that soak in for a second - if you can.

If any player out there that could help turn this Heat team around immediately and also put that fire back in the Heat it would be Ron Artest.



Yes, the same guy that was tossed from the Triple A for having a nuclear meltdown as a Pacer back in 2003. You may remember, he bumped into Pat Riley and incited the Heat bench. In the first quarter of that game, Riley was protesting to an official about Artest's blatant foul on Caron Butler. This got a tech for both Butler and Riley, and Artest came over as Riley was talking to the officials and had some words for the Heat coach. Riley told Artest to go away - which he did until the 4th quarter. After making a layup and drawing a foul, Artest flexed his right arm at the Heat's bench. Keith Askins, bow tie and all, started yelling at Artest and the two had words while Riley actually pushed Artest away.

"Coach Riley was into it," Artest said. "Their bench was into it. We were into it. That's how it's supposed to be..."

That is exactly what the Heat were missing this past season: focus.

No player is more controversial these days in the NBA and we don't need to recount the suspensions and antics of Ron Artest. Yet, no one can deny the fire and intensity Artest plays with nor is there any player with more upside and a better price tag at this time.

Simply put, Artest brings a sizzle to the Heat they have not had since they acquired Shaq. The funny thing is, this deal could prove to be more important.

He can defend any position on the floor, which will give the Heat great flexibility. Artest can also play with the ball or without the ball on the offensive side of things which makes him an excellent candidate to complement Shaq and Wade's offensive sets as the two of them will dominate the ball.

It may not be as complicated to land Ron Artest as it seems. He is currently locked in for a few more years at $7.5 million. The Kings are apparently looking to deal him or Mike Bibby, but if the Heat play their cards right, they could acquire Artest. For starters, Artest's unpredictable antics drive his value down and his contract further undercuts Artest as an asset. The Heat would have to match the NBA salary rule (125% + 100K) and a possible deal that would meet those goals would be Udonis Haslem ($5.5M) and Dorell Wright ($1.3M) for Artest.

Why that deal would work: The Heat would be flexible enough to play Artest at PF or SF, and the Heat could have an option like Simien at PF or even Kapono/Posey at SF (depending on who was re-signed).

Of course, the Heat could trade beleaguered forward Antoine Walker for Artest straight up, but there is little incentive for the Kings to make that move as they just seem to want to move the liability that is Artest's contract. Giving up Haslem and Wright would sweeten the deal most likely beyond anything other teams would be willing to part with.

Ron Artest has tremendous upside and the history of the Heat organization dealing with "character" issues has been positive mostly due to Pat Riley's influence and commanding presence. In fact, it might just be the missing component for Ron Artest's career.

It also seems Ron Artest has always been the most dire of Dennis Rodman impersonators, except Artest actually has a very good offensive game as well. The Rodman era Bulls were wise to let Rodman do his thing, but proved their strength by not letting it be a distraction. On a team like the Heat, highlighted with brand named superstars like Dwyane Wade and Shaq, taking a chance on the nutty antics of Artest could have the same result - a team that is fierce, intimidating, and focused. It is a heaven or hell type of deal: heavenly in championships follow, hellish in darkness beyond comprehension.

It is a chance that the Heat should take. It achieves what Pat Riley is setting out to do this offseason - reclaim the Heat culture. Adding Artest might also get Zo and Posey to stay on board, too. For opponents of the Heat, that is a frightening proposition. Artest could also challenge Shaq's lethargy and apathy in a good way - in practice and on the floor. He could also help disguise it.

The offseason has begun. And Ron Artest, strangely, is exactly what the Heat need.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Trade Shaq? Has Everyone Lost Their Mind?

Recently, Ira Winderman wondered aloud about the possibility. Thank God the man has some sense.

The thought, to be honest, is on everyone's mind. One of our members over at the forum asked if the Heat made a mistake in trading for Shaq, opting out of the potential of that 2003-2004 team which sported a young, athletic nucleus of Wade, Odom, Caron Butler, Rafer Alston, Udonis Haslem and Rasual Butler. The argument is tantalizing but as ridiculous as a voice mail from Alec Baldwin.

That team would have had some nice playoff runs and would have helped integrate Stan Van Gundy into the NBA coaching fabric as he would have proven to be one of the bright young strategists in this league.

Yet, make no mistake, they wouldn't have been favorites to win any title. They may not have even had enough to get by the Pistons.

As we reflect on a disappointing 2006-2007 season, a sad attempt at a title defense, we must keep in mind that for a team to be disappointing must mean there was some expectation in the first place.

The entire championship team returned this season, so there is little reason for excuse - even with the injuries. True, the Heat starting lineup basically never got a chance to develop consistency - over the last 2 years the starting 5 haven't been able to play a full 82 games together. That contrasts greatly to the Bulls and Pistons, who have been extremely lucky in not having any significant injuries over the last several years.

So, let's stop this nonsense about the Heat not being a good team anymore. If you project the same kind of injuries and obstacles on other teams in this league, let's see if they even make the playoffs.

Shaq is now the poster boy for what is wrong with the Heat. And there are 20 million reasons why that is the case yet the idea of trading Shaq away from the Heat would be to bleed out this franchise of its purpose. You cannot rebuild this team with Shaq on it; and you cannot rebuild it by trading him away. The Heat and Shaq are married to one another, like a symbiotic relationship the two need each other. For starters, with all the negative attention Shaq has garnered, his value has plummeted and you wouldn't get like for like. Plus, as good as Dwyane Wade is, the Heat would be making a mistake in thinking that they could build around him at this point and win a title. Just ask the Lakers about such "innovative" thinking.

Sure, this new NBA favors the perimeter offense - all the more reason not to invest in overvalued talent. The market, to break it down as an economist, is quite large when it comes to perimeter talent; yet it is a challenge to yield a decent post player.

Look at the teams left in this playoff race - Suns, Spurs, Jazz, Warriors, Pistons, Bulls, Cavaliers and Nets. Only the Spurs and Jazz have dominant post players, everyone else is running crazy with perimeter-oriented offenses. Now, that would seem to indicate that the paradigm has shifted but if we peel back and take a look, only the Rockets and Heat - of the teams eliminated - have dominant centers. The Rockets went 7 games - against the Jazz. The Heat? Well, they had a sub par performance not in just the playoffs but for the entire regular season and still had a decent shot at the title. Why?

Of course Shaq now is not the '93 model or even the '98 model or even the '04 model. But he still is the most dominant big man in the entire game and part of his skill set that is conducive to the game is his ability to pass the ball. In fact, Shaq has to be one of the better passers in this league. He had a decent playoff against the Bulls too, scoring points efficiently and effectively. Where Shaq needs to change things for the better is upstairs in the ol'noggin of his. His physical strength is very much there as his agility. Shaq cannot afford to get stupid fouls or even cannot play 40 minutes anymore, but for the 30+ he can play he can leave it all out on the court and play at a higher level than practically any other big man on any given night.

Really, why follow the trends? If the Heat try and do a makeover this offseason, it would prove nothing more than Miami living under a panic and that Riley is a tool with no strength of vision. And for a man who envisioned a parade down Biscayne on his arrival over ten years ago, that would be a fallacy.

Miami needs to retool, not rebuild. The Heat blasted the whole clip, time to reload. They will be forced into doing that, but you certainly don't rewrite the script. The Heat has plenty of reasons to believe they will be back at the top next season - and it starts with reason #32. Trading Shaq would be an even bigger mistake than not trading for him in the first place.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Heat Need to Turn to Alternative Sources for Talent

The Miami Heat have financial troubles. Not the kind generated at the box office, but the kind generated by a tight cap and heavy contracts.

Shaq is locked in for another 3 years at $20 million. Dwyane Wade's payday is going to be bumped up about $8 million, from 3.8 M to 12.4M.

That's $32 million for just two players.

The cap was only $53.136M last season, leaving the Heat about $20 M to play with before they get into luxury tax trouble, which they most certainly will be in. To give an idea, the salary cap has risen by about $4-5 M each season:

2006-07 $53.136 million
2005-06 $49.5 million
2004-05 $43.87 million

So, on the positive side of things, Miami could see the cap go up to about $58M this season. And they will need every penny of it because the remaining nine players under contract brings the Heat up to $66M, or about $8M over the cap.

This leaves the Heat with their mid-level salary cap exception (MLE), somewhere in the range of $5M, and with the veteran minimum contract option - which the Heat have an unlimited number with which to form out their team.

That means they have about 5M to re-sign Posey and/or Kapono. Most likely, the Heat will only retain one and it will be debatable whether or not they should use the entire MLE to do just that. To re-sign Posey, it would cost the Heat all of the MLE, for Kapono probably half.

The veteran minimum contracts could be extended to veteran NBA players looking for one year deals to win a championship and fulfill that part of their careers.

To sum up, the Heat cannot realistically overhaul their team roster outside of major trades; they will have to retool their roster by touching up a couple of pieces here and there. Of the players with trade value, realistically only Udonis Haslem (youth, decent contract), Jason Williams (expiring contract) and Dorell Wright (expiring contract, potential) have any value. Antoine Walker has another three years with the contract going up to 8-9M over the subsequent seasons which might undercut his value considering his statistical production this past season.

That leaves the draft and an unconventional talent pool that must be both undervalued and affordable for the Heat's needs.

Miami has the 20th pick in the draft. Although there are some interesting options at that slot (we will be reviewing possible picks in the coming weeks), it is more likely that Riley would trade away the 20th pick than actually use it. Draft picks tend to be overvalued because execs get caught up in the potential of players and drive up their value as well. Yet, if Riley is serious about changing the culture of the Miami Heat back to what it was before they won a championship, this is where he needs to take a stand. The Heat need to draft a young talent that can contribute right away and they have needs at point guard, shooting guard and even small forward. The Heat have to get more athletic.

Coupled with Dorell Wright, the draft pick has to be able to play off of Wade and Shaq, which means he cannot rely on scoring with the ball in his hands, but by scoring without the ball. This goes for any trade in potentia that the Heat might be looking at.

The other part of this equation has to come from an uncervalued source of basketball talent - the international community.

This is where Randy Pfund and his scouts have to make their money if the Heat are going to change things for the better. The team is locked into its financial situation for at least the next three years - or as long as Shaq has a contract with the Heat. As noted earlier, the Heat cannot rebuild but need to retool and the international pool has a lot of talent that could be utilized for just this purpose.

For example, look at the San Antonio Spurs. They have a very good basketball culture; the players are well-coached, disciplined and understand their roles. They are the definition of professional, and they are arguably the best franchise in the NBA. Some of their key members are foreign players - Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker. They also added more depth by going back to the well and grabbing guys like Beno Udrih and Fabricio Oberto. The Miami Heat need to take notice and emulate this as well.

Besides, Miami is a cosmopolitan city and can offer many amenities to international players that could help them feel more at home and adjust to the rigors of playing in the NBA and living in the United States. International players are starting to pop up with more regularity and are having more of an effect on the game than ever before. Tony Parker's best friend, Boris Diaw, is a big commodity for the Suns.

The Heat has two main objectives - to return to the Heat culture of the past and to get more athletic. In order to do this, the Heat have to meet their goals by sidestepping the financial trappings they are faced with in the form of the salary cap and the luxury tax penalties. The manuevering has to begin while at the same time considering the current personnel and whether or not they will fit into the plans going forward.

Over the coming weeks, we will also be targeting and highlighting possible free agents, draft picks, as well as international veterans that might be able to help the Heat's cause. The 2007 offseason promises to be as interesting at the 2005 offseason did for the Miami Heat. The only question remaining is, will it be enough to get the Heat back to the Finals?

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

It's Time to Prove Your Worth Shaq

It doesn't get any easier to swallow. Shaq is guranteed $20 million dollars for another three years. So, when you tell a Heat fan that Shaq is old and doesn't have any lift, be prepared to get at the very least an evil glance in return. Saying such things is akin to swearing, or kicking a man while he's down.

Yet, it is only half true.

Shaq, despite what some may believe, has been here before. Maybe not swept in the first round, but definetly sitting on his giant couch watching the rest of the basketball universe go on without him. The last time that happened? His rookie season in Orlando - and that was a best of five series. Three games lost and out. This time, against the Bulls, it was a four game dismissal.

It is a bit harsh to put it all on Shaq. After all, his team didn't show up as a whole, but when you get paid the megabucks Shaq does, it's hard to overlook his production, too.

The biggest thing that most are saying now is that this confirms that Shaq is too old, too slow and doesn't have the ability to finish around the hoop like he once did. In part, it was because of the Bulls stellar defense and the way Ben Wallace kept tricking Shaq that made him look the way he did.

To his credit, Shaq is the hardest specimen in the entire basketball pantheon to officiate. His opponents notoriously flop around to accentuate Shaq's brute force. Heck, most of these guys wouldn't have a career without Shaq. Just ask Scott Pollard. All Ben Wallace did was do the same - PJ Brown all but confirmed it in the press saying they were simply "better actors" than the Heat and could use their flopping, as thespians, to get the calls.

Shaq blew up on Ed Rush after Game 1. Score Bulls 1, Miami 0. And that was for the psychological boxscore.

This naturally leads to Shaq being more tentative in his game, as he gets in foul trouble and will get called for just about anything.

Now, this is not to make an excuse. Shaq has to adjust and refine his game more - but he has to work at it. Shaq has to develop a hook, some kind of midrange attack that will allow him to at least make his defenders hesitate. As it stands, it is either he will back in for the dunk or pass it out. Defenders take their chances on Shaq trying to dunk and let their teammates guard the potential outside targets.

This in turn limits Shaq and makes him one-dimensional. It just so happens that, well, this has always been what Shaq is.

The way the Heat lost this season has to send a message to Shaq. If he truly wants to be considered among the greats of all-time, if not the greatest, he has to work. Riley has said as much saying that this season has proven once and for all that a veteran team cannot just turn it on for the playoffs and win. He also admitted that players did not put in the work necessary to kick off the season the right way. The opening night loss to the Bulls ended up being a preview of the end of their championship reign, too.

And it was simply because the Heat just didn't show up. They didn't work and they didn't have the right attitude.

Shaq resembles all of what is wrong with the Heat especially now. It is his apathy towards the regular season that tends to characterize him to outside fans. The question is, does Shaq take this attitude to hide his diminishing skills or because he is spoiled by his own success?

For Shaq to be successful, he finds himself needing to get back to the basics and work again. He needs to work on his free throws - getting at least 60% consistently would greatly enhance his scoring and his effectiveness. Right now, he has no right whatsoever to be on the floor to close out games.

More importantly, for the Heat as a team to be successful, Shaq has to lead the way on the defensive end grabbing more rebounds than anyone and defending the paint properly so that teams won't just barrell down the lane to draw fouls on him. (Or course, the latter requires the Heat to get better defense on the perimeter...but let's stay on topic here.)

If Shaq is truly one of the greats, if he is trule worth the $20 million dollars he is penned for, he needs to prove it. And to do this, he needs to prove it not just on the court at game time, but before and after by practicing. Shaq needs to improve his free throw shooting. He needs to work on getting better positioning on defense, boxing out and grabbing more rebounds - around 13+ a game. He needs to work on a different look offensively that will enable him to be effective from 10-15 feet out.

Shaq has to totally transform himself just to prove he is still worth the investment. Can he do it? The desire is there as he demonstrated after the fallout season of 2003-2004. The question is, will Shaq yield to that desire of excellence and will he sacrifice for the benefit of the team.

To do so would truly erase the critics and prove himself to be among the greats.

Market Watch: Potential Free Agents for Miami 2007 Offseason

Welcome to Miami, Bienvenido a Miami.

We are expecting some big changes this offseason for the Heat, who are really a year behind in making adjustments. After their championship season in 2006, there were many of us here at MiamiHeatwave.com that realized the Heat needed to tweak things:

A backup PG with some youth
A solid option for a #3 scorer
More youth and depth

A year later, and that is what everyone is saying. Again.

The knock that the Heat are old is moronic. This team is not too old as the main catalyst for their team is Dwyane Wade. Udonis Haslem is young as is Jason Kapono. Those are three starters right there. James Posey is hardly a step slow, too. Alonzo Mourning is arguably the best backup center of all time and looks like a starter for several other NBA franchises - but most likely he will retire which means he will need to be replaced. Antoine Walker is what he is - but age is not a factor for his game.

The only guys you have to concerned about are Gary Payton and Jason Williams. Payton is going to hang them up this offseason and Jason Williams, who can still play, doesn't seem to be able to get back to his old self. He is relatively young at age 32, hardly an old man by NBA standards (just ask Steve Nash). His knees still seem to bother him as he doesn't practice in order to rest himself through the regular season.

The Heat are likely going to lose Payton and Zo, and possibly even Kapono and Posey. That is four roster spots that have to be replaced despite any chants of "uno mas".

Here are some options for Miami as they head into the offseason a little earlier than anticipated:

Guards
G Steven Blake, Nuggets
: Miami native that is a pass-first PG with the ability to stick the open J, hit the three, and penetrate off the dribble to set up the pass.
G Demarr Johnson. Nuggets: Athletic talent that hasn't found his niche in Denver, but could provide youth, athleticism and depth for the Heat behind Wade.
G Matt Barnes, Warriors: Getting some PT and exposure in the playoffs. Provides youth, scoring and athleticism.
G Jason Hart, Clippers: Solid PG that could blossom with Riley's system.
G Mo Williams, Bucks: Quick PG with ability to penetrate and score. Would be an interesting duo with he and Wade.
G Earl Boykins, Bucks: Undersized but can man the point and score.
G Jaque Vaughn, Spurs: Solid PG with good skills. Ideal backup.

Forwards
F Andres Nocioni, Bulls: Longshot, but would be a great #3 for this team (restricted).
F Jerry Stackhouse, Mavs: Would add depth, but not my cup o' tea.
F Gerald Wallace, Bobcats: Priority #1. If we can get this guy to come to Miami, we would be unstoppable.
F Luke Walton, Lakers: Could provide some hustle and shooting and possibly replace Kapono or Posey should one leave.
F Brian Skinner, Bucks: Could be used as a backup C or PF. Great rebounder and could complement Shaq.
F Joe Smith, 76ers: Experienced vet that could add scoring depth for the frontcourt and offer moments of big time plays.

Centers
C Desagana Diop, Mavs
: Could be solid backup to Shaq. Maybe cheaper than Doleac.
C/F Malik Rose, Knicks: Another potential backup C for Shaq although undersized.
C Micheal Olowakandi, Celtics: Could be a great backup C and practicing with Shaq might learn a thing of two.
C Primoz Brezec, Bobcats: Has some range and could be used as a backup C and possibly a PF. Maybe expendable in Charlotte.
C Mikki Moore, Nets: Made huge strides this season with significant PT. Could get a big payout, but would be a great pickup for frontcourt depth for Miami.
C Jamaal Magliore, Trailblazers: Skills have seemed to take a complete dive, but still has size and could benefit from coming in off the bench to relieve Shaq.
C Melvin Ely, Spurs: Made a splash last season for the Bobcats to help relieve injuries. Could be a cheap alternative to add to the team.

Changes are a'comin. There are other possible targets that could be had via a trade, but at this time we won't investigate that option as the postseason is not quite over. Yet, keep an eye on the Boston Celtics and what they do with Sebastian Telfair, who is under scrutiny for his latest arrest. Riley has never shyed away from characters, and Telfair has exactly what the Heat need - athleticism, youth and talent - and it might be a fraction of the cost.

The Heat will need to build around Wade first, Shaq second. They could look to run more if Riley the coach can promise Riley the GM to return to the Lakers' Showtime playbook. Of that list above, Gerald Wallace would be the best option as he would provide a strong #3 scorer with youth and athleticism as well as the ability to score without the ball as both Wade and Shaq are going to dominate the ball.

Discuss who you want Miami to sign HERE.