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Saturday, June 30, 2007

How to Retool a Champion: Part II

The 2007 NBA Draft promised future pieces for world domination but the reality is, there are only a few pieces that could turn the tide for a franchise - and those are the first two picks in the draft.

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are can't miss prospects, if there truly is such a thing, while the rest have upside and promise but are still raw and have flaws.

Sure, there will be some talent that emerges from the subsequent ranks and the Heat's Daequan Cook could be one of those talents. His ability to shoot and score and use the floor to set up his offense would mesh nicely with the personnel on this team. Then again, Riley has to believe in Cook enough to give him playing time - which means Cook has to prove he can defend.

As that is up for debate, and exactly what the Heat intend to do with Cook during this upcoming season, it seems a bigger part of the re-tooling process for the Heat will be involved with making trades and signing free agents.

Still, the draft is vital as it can give the Heat a free shot at talent that could fill a void or shore up a need. The Heat basically wasted their 39th pick for a trade of another 2nd round pick, but it seems that the Heat didn't believe there was a talent left on the board that could help them.

But the Heat have a strange methodology when it comes to the draft. It is like they almost only value picks in the lottery, and then only like talent that goes undrafted. They make the most of the leftovers.

One of the reasons why the Spurs are so good as an organization is that they value their draft picks and use them to find the best matching talent available. Their draft this year yielded them Tiago Splitter - a lottery-tiered talent but with buyout issues - and Marcus Williams. Both players are yound and skilled and could serve as replacements a few years down the line.

The Heat? They drafted Daequan Cook, who is raw and is most likely not going to figure into the immediate plans for the Heat. At least, that is what the pundits think - who knows what Riley sees from Cook and how he reacts.

Which brings us back to the point about the Heat's drafting methodology - it is confusing at best. One of the reasons why is, they may be very good at estimating where the talent will fall. In 2003 they got Dwyane Wade - he proved to be a steal. In 2002 they drafted Caron Butler - who fell to Miami almost as a miracle. Yet the Heat got who they targeted. 2004, it was Dorrell Wright, whom the Heat had targeted as a project with upside - and it was of no concern for Riley the coach because he was not coaching the team at that time. 2005 the Heat got Wayne Simien who had demonstrated very good NBA-level skills for a big, but questions about durability, and the fact that NBA execs seem to devalue seniors, caused him to drop.

This year, the Heat grabbed Jason Smith only to get the guy they really wanted, Daequan Cook. And a draft pick and cash, too. Well, the guy they really wanted was Javaris Crittenton, but the Heat estimated he would not make it all the way down to #20.

Again, proper assessment of where talent will land.

And maybe this is the key to understanding the Heat's approach to the draft as well as their approach to re-tooling this team: it isn't about talent, but about value. Getting a talent at the best price is what is key. Of course, many would argue that the Heat have demonstrated inaccurate assessments of talent as they signed Eddie Jones, Brian Grant and Antoine Walker to big deals. Yet for some reason, the Heat excel at getting talent where others have determined to be none.

This is precisely how the Heat are going to re-tool their team - they are faced with the challenge of upgrading the complementary players and overhauling the team culture from one of apathy to one of intensity and competitiveness.

Most will write off the draft for the Heat and say it doesn't matter, but they would be undervaluing the draft and its use - teams are not supposed to find superstars at the 20th pick, they are supposed to find a serviceable professional who can contribute to your team. If a guy emerges into a superstar role, you hit the jackpot - not the other way around.

This leads us to the Summer League - where the Heat will really begin building its team. Cook will come on in and play for the Heat and show him what he can do, but so will other talents that went undrafted. Over the last couple of years, the Heat have signed Chris Quinn, Earl Barron, Robert Hite and Jerome Beasley out of their free agent activities for the Summer Leagues. They have had some interesting talents assemble in order for the Heat to get a closer look. This season will be no different, and no less important.

The Heat are still charged with finding a solution for PG, some depth to replace the soon to depart Posey and Kapono at SF, and a backup for Wade at SG as well as more perimeter defense.

The goal of the Summer League for the Heat is to find a couple candidates for these voids, and right now the Heat are on the right path as they are bringing in Trey Johnson from Jackson State. The 6'5" guard was the second leading scorer in the nation at 27.1 per game, and thrives on competition. He average 31.5 PPG against ranked opponents this past season. He is a shooter, but very athletic and can finish at the rim. He is more experienced that Daequan Cook, and that might work in his favor of not only making the team, but being a solid contributor right out the gate.

If the Heat can get a good look at Johnson, and he can prove to them he will fill their needs, the Heat just landed a pretty good pickup without having to draft the guy. This wouldn't be the first time the Heat have done this, and it most likely won't be the last.

So, we all may be somewhat befuddled and confused about the Heat's approach to the draft - and there is certainly room for criticism there - but it seems that the Heat have a strong belief in acquiring talent at the best price available. Johnson could be an example of this, and he did have his best workout when practicing for the Heat before the draft.

Maybe Randy Pfund knows something we don't? In fact, you can bet on it.

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