Miami Heat Pre-Draft 2007

The Miami Heat have been busy this offseason looking at draft prospects. As it stands, Miami currently has the 20th pick and the 39th pick in this year's draft extravaganza.

This current crop of talent is deeper than in recent years, and will probably rival the '03 draft class in terms of impact.

Who Has Worked Out

Aaron Gray - C 7' 270lbs Pitt
Jared Dudley - SF/PF 6'7" 225lbs Boston College
Curtis Sumpter - SF 6'7" 225lbs Villanova
Darryl Watkins - C 6'10" 241lbs Syracuse
Javaris Crittenton - PG 6'5" 198lbs GTech
Zabian Dowdell - PG 6'3" 190lbs VTech
DJ Strawberry - SG/SF 6'5" 201lbs Maryland
Nick Young - SG 6'6" 200lbs USC
DeAndre Rice - SG 6'3" 190lbs FAU
Taurean Green - PG 6'0" 177lbs UF

Needs

The Heat are in need of a PG and could use some depth at SF and even C.

Point Guard (PG) is a need because Jason Williams health is a yearly issue. He is in the final year of his contract, so we can all expect him to be a bit more healthier and bouncier than in recent years - mostly because his knees have gotten better since surgery, but also because he is in his "walk year". The Heat have the option to deal him, but could also keep him around. At any rate, a PG prospect that could step in as a backup and possibly as a starter is ideal since Gary Payton is all but set to retire and Chris Quinn is a free agent.

Small Forward (SF) is a need because two members of this past season's rosters, both James Posey and Jason Kapono, are free agents - and they both play the swing position. Kapono is definetly going to test the market since he got an opportunity to show his shooting abilities with the Heat last season while James Posey has had a very solid career as a defensive dynamo and intense team leader. Both could end up in another zip code next season; and both could be retained. Either way, if the Heat can grab another SF prospect out of the draft, it will give them some insurance.

Center (C) is a need, but not a real priority at this time. Both Alonzo Mourning and Michael Doleac are in the final years of their contracts - it still is not known is Zo is coming back. And with Shaq getting up there at 35 with another 3 seasons left, a backup to the Big Fella is vital. Someone is going to have to fill those big shoes someday, too.

Who Fits

With the Heat needs, in order, being a PG, SF, and C, and the picks being the 20th and the 39th, expectations have to be tailored to find depth instead of looking for that big time prospect. Most likely the Heat won't find that big time steal and future NBA star; but then again, this draft is deep enough that they just might.

Some safe picks? For PG, Acie Law would be an excellent pick, but he most likely won't be available at the 20th pick. The Clippers have been rumored to all but promise Law he will be in LA - I can see it now, LA Law. Still, some mock drafts have Law falling a bit as the draft most likely will start getting enamored by gazelle-like athletes and won't care about college credentials as much. If that is the case, the Heat may get a sniff at Law - and if they do, they better take it because they haven't had the chance to draft a decent PG since...Jameer Nelson.

There are other options though. If the Heat go with the philosophy of taking the best talent available, they may be able to snatch up a PG with the 39th pick. Taurean Green looks like a solid, second round pick to take a flyer on. He was the PG for the two time national champs and has a steady game, nothing flashy but a safe prospect. If you wanted to get even more risky with the 39th, look at Arizona's Mustafa Shakur who has the size and talent but questionable gametime execution and consistency; or perhaps Ayinde Ubaka who has had some pretty good games as Cal's PG; Bobby Brown from Cal St. Fullerton whose perogative (couldn't resist) could be to become a solid NBA player. Zabian Dowdell, whom the Heat have worked out, has the tools to be a competent NBA PG and can play excellent defense and he could also be available at 39.

Getting back to the 20th pick, if the Heat were to take the best option available, there are several prospects worth looking at that could very well provide scoring and the option to play occasional PG.

Javaris Crittenton is the young, athletic PG from Georgia Tech whose downside is he is young and has a lot to learn. He has tremendous upside, but it seems that NBA execs will not be able to pass up on that temptation and he could be gone by the 20th pick. The other question is, would Riley really want to play a 19 year old PG? Ask Dorrel Wright.

Gabe Pruitt is the big, strong scorer from USC that was more of a "tweener" than a true PG. He can play both positions, but his ball handling and decision making are shaky. Still, with Riley's offense running through Wade, does it really matter who brings the ball up past half court? Pruitt could be a big time scorer in the NBA as he has good range and a solid set of skills that will allow him to create his own shot and get around his defender.

Marco Belinelli is another tantalizing option. He is Italian and has been playing in their highest grade leagues for years now, and at 21 seems ready to test the NBA. He has some big time international experience, as he was a part of a strong Italian team this past summer in the World Basketball Classic. He has a quick release and is among one of the best young shooters in the game today. He also has pretty good athleticism and can play both the SG and PG positions - although it is preferential he play the latter. A big concern about Belinelli is his contract - he may have to wait another year to report to his NBA team.

The Heat could go with the most talented player available, in which case they just might take a chance on Derrick Byars, a senior from Vanderbilt. He is probably the most complete player in the entire NBA draft, and has all the tools to excel at the NBA level. He might not be a star, but he surely could replace a guy like James Posey or even Jason Kapono.

As for centers, Darryl Watkins (Syracuse) and Aaron Gray (Pitt) are possible options. Watkins looks to be a 2nd rounder and has been compared to Kendrick Perkins, has some athleticism and some shot-blocking ability but needs work. Gray is a seven footer and weighs about 270lbs. He has developed his game at Pitt and is starting to turn some heads. He is projecting to be a late first rounder or possibly an early second rounder, so he could be available for the Heat, but he will have to either be a reach or fall to the Heat out of luck.

Another good pick for the 2nd round could be ACC player of the year Jared Dudley. He is a PF trapped in a SF body (6'7") but has a very high basketball IQ that will help him overcome his athletic shortcomings. He is not going to outleap anyone or have that sizzle and flair for the dramatic dunk, but he can score and play excellent basketball within a system. Probably another player that would mesh well with Riley's system and intensity.

There is a lot that can change between now and June 28th. Some teams are going to target different players and that will gradually change over the next couple of weeks. What Miami has to do is choose whether it will address its needs now or go for the best talent available when it picks. If history is any indication, Miami will draft based on who is the best talent and shore up needs afterwards. The free agent period begins July 1st, and there are a few FAs out there that could provide the Heat with options to meet their need for a PG. In fact, some of the FA options could be better than the ones available in the draft - Jason Hart, Steven Blake and Jannero Pargo to name a few.