Trajan Langdon Can Help Heat

He mattered at Duke.

He matters in Euroleague.

He could matter in the NBA.

Trajan Langdon has been exiled to Europe and has made the best of it. There is a certain romanticism, at least in my mind, about playing professional basketball overseas. You get to see all the exotic locations around the world and really take the opportunity to grow as an individual and learn and see new things. You are like a voyager to a far away land, an alien on another planet - and in some cases, a superhero that has come to roost amongst the humble civilians of another world.

Trajan Langdon never asked for this, it was forced upon him. Interestingly, he might have never had the opportunity he had if he was being drafted during this day and age - that is, post 2K.

The NBA has changed a lot: the game now favors perimeter players - we can't stress this enough. The calls are all going to any perimeter player that can create contact; any player with an ability to create hesitation in the mind of his defender has got an edge as he will now dictate the action thus getting the call.

Langdon is one of Europe's best shooters. He shot 54% from the field this past season, and 42% from three point range. He also hit his free throw; shooting over 90% from the charity stripe. He averaged around 8 shot attempts per game, 4 from the field and 4 from three point range.

As seen in this video (don't mind the Spanish!), Langdon can create seperation with excellent body control and positioning as well as complete the play by making the shot under duress - with a hand in his face, for example:



Now, he is only 6'3" but he is extremely quick off the ground as well as laterally. He can use the floor with the best of them and does not look to force his shot (which explains his meager 8 FGAs per game) but instead waits for the game to come to him.

As noted previously, a good complementary talent on the Heat is going to be able to hit his shots, move and create without the ball, and defend. Langdon has proven this time and again while playing for Euroleague powerhouse CSKA, along with another international talent targeted by the Heat PG Theo Papaloukas.

Is there not a more perfect scenario for Langdon to try and show why the Cavs picked him #11th overall in the '99 draft? He gets to play off of Wade and Shaq, and that will leave a ton of opportunities for Langdon to let if fly from outside. He will be able to take the PG on defense, and allow for Wade to guard the SG instead or even have Wade switch off with whomever is playing SF.

It is time to bring the Alaskan Assassin back to the US. It is time to bring the traveler to his final destination - the sunny beaches of Miami. Just in time to matter once again, and to win another championship - this time, in the NBA.

How to Retool a Champion: Part II

The 2007 NBA Draft promised future pieces for world domination but the reality is, there are only a few pieces that could turn the tide for a franchise - and those are the first two picks in the draft.

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are can't miss prospects, if there truly is such a thing, while the rest have upside and promise but are still raw and have flaws.

Sure, there will be some talent that emerges from the subsequent ranks and the Heat's Daequan Cook could be one of those talents. His ability to shoot and score and use the floor to set up his offense would mesh nicely with the personnel on this team. Then again, Riley has to believe in Cook enough to give him playing time - which means Cook has to prove he can defend.

As that is up for debate, and exactly what the Heat intend to do with Cook during this upcoming season, it seems a bigger part of the re-tooling process for the Heat will be involved with making trades and signing free agents.

Still, the draft is vital as it can give the Heat a free shot at talent that could fill a void or shore up a need. The Heat basically wasted their 39th pick for a trade of another 2nd round pick, but it seems that the Heat didn't believe there was a talent left on the board that could help them.

But the Heat have a strange methodology when it comes to the draft. It is like they almost only value picks in the lottery, and then only like talent that goes undrafted. They make the most of the leftovers.

One of the reasons why the Spurs are so good as an organization is that they value their draft picks and use them to find the best matching talent available. Their draft this year yielded them Tiago Splitter - a lottery-tiered talent but with buyout issues - and Marcus Williams. Both players are yound and skilled and could serve as replacements a few years down the line.

The Heat? They drafted Daequan Cook, who is raw and is most likely not going to figure into the immediate plans for the Heat. At least, that is what the pundits think - who knows what Riley sees from Cook and how he reacts.

Which brings us back to the point about the Heat's drafting methodology - it is confusing at best. One of the reasons why is, they may be very good at estimating where the talent will fall. In 2003 they got Dwyane Wade - he proved to be a steal. In 2002 they drafted Caron Butler - who fell to Miami almost as a miracle. Yet the Heat got who they targeted. 2004, it was Dorrell Wright, whom the Heat had targeted as a project with upside - and it was of no concern for Riley the coach because he was not coaching the team at that time. 2005 the Heat got Wayne Simien who had demonstrated very good NBA-level skills for a big, but questions about durability, and the fact that NBA execs seem to devalue seniors, caused him to drop.

This year, the Heat grabbed Jason Smith only to get the guy they really wanted, Daequan Cook. And a draft pick and cash, too. Well, the guy they really wanted was Javaris Crittenton, but the Heat estimated he would not make it all the way down to #20.

Again, proper assessment of where talent will land.

And maybe this is the key to understanding the Heat's approach to the draft as well as their approach to re-tooling this team: it isn't about talent, but about value. Getting a talent at the best price is what is key. Of course, many would argue that the Heat have demonstrated inaccurate assessments of talent as they signed Eddie Jones, Brian Grant and Antoine Walker to big deals. Yet for some reason, the Heat excel at getting talent where others have determined to be none.

This is precisely how the Heat are going to re-tool their team - they are faced with the challenge of upgrading the complementary players and overhauling the team culture from one of apathy to one of intensity and competitiveness.

Most will write off the draft for the Heat and say it doesn't matter, but they would be undervaluing the draft and its use - teams are not supposed to find superstars at the 20th pick, they are supposed to find a serviceable professional who can contribute to your team. If a guy emerges into a superstar role, you hit the jackpot - not the other way around.

This leads us to the Summer League - where the Heat will really begin building its team. Cook will come on in and play for the Heat and show him what he can do, but so will other talents that went undrafted. Over the last couple of years, the Heat have signed Chris Quinn, Earl Barron, Robert Hite and Jerome Beasley out of their free agent activities for the Summer Leagues. They have had some interesting talents assemble in order for the Heat to get a closer look. This season will be no different, and no less important.

The Heat are still charged with finding a solution for PG, some depth to replace the soon to depart Posey and Kapono at SF, and a backup for Wade at SG as well as more perimeter defense.

The goal of the Summer League for the Heat is to find a couple candidates for these voids, and right now the Heat are on the right path as they are bringing in Trey Johnson from Jackson State. The 6'5" guard was the second leading scorer in the nation at 27.1 per game, and thrives on competition. He average 31.5 PPG against ranked opponents this past season. He is a shooter, but very athletic and can finish at the rim. He is more experienced that Daequan Cook, and that might work in his favor of not only making the team, but being a solid contributor right out the gate.

If the Heat can get a good look at Johnson, and he can prove to them he will fill their needs, the Heat just landed a pretty good pickup without having to draft the guy. This wouldn't be the first time the Heat have done this, and it most likely won't be the last.

So, we all may be somewhat befuddled and confused about the Heat's approach to the draft - and there is certainly room for criticism there - but it seems that the Heat have a strong belief in acquiring talent at the best price available. Johnson could be an example of this, and he did have his best workout when practicing for the Heat before the draft.

Maybe Randy Pfund knows something we don't? In fact, you can bet on it.

You Can't Cook Without Heat

"He couldn't crack the starting lineup of a college team..."

Cook has a "weak work ethic and a massive ego."

"Cook unlikely to help Heat find the right path."

Welcome to Miami, Daequan. Apparently, you have a lot of work to do. And you have a lot to answer for.

Pretty much across the board, no one in the media likes this pick. Or are they really hiding how they truly feel?

To be fair, when the Heat draft a talent like Jason Smith, a talent with an indistinctive name from a virtually unknown basketball conference, and then trade that pick down one slot for a different player, some cash and a 2nd round pick in 2009, people are just going to be downright confused.

But are the Heat?

"Do we have a specific plan? Yeah," Pfund said. "You try to draw those lines [on draft prospects] and make decisions, and then we try to never tell you guys where the lines were drawn. Because, a lot of times, you end up having to do things that were not exactly what you wanted to do."

Huh?

Did the Heat really want Cook, but figured they would draft Smith as the best athlete available and trade him to someone who wanted him? Or did they just not care and take whatever was the best deal that came along? Because Javaris Crittenton was drafted in front of the Heat's 20th pick by the Lakers, we will never really know the true intentions behind the Heat's move.

Yet let's not focus on that but instead look at Daequan Cook.

As a 6'5" freshman shooting guard, on the runner-up team in the NCAA tourny this season, there is a lot of potential that is untapped. Cook's ceiling is pretty high, after all he was a McDonald's All American with Greg Oden and Mike Conley, his fellow OSU teammates now turned millionaires. Then again, so was Kevin Durant, Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton - that shows what kind of grade of basketball athlete Cook is. Crittenton and Cook are the last of that list to get drafted.

But why?

1. This draft is deep, deep, deep. Loaded with freshman talents that all came out at the same time, there was bound to be some players that fell down the draft.

2. Concerns over Cooks second half of play at OSU and the fact that he wasn't a starter on that squad to begin with.

Yet the guy is only 20 years old. He had one season of college and was on the second best team in the country, and a part of one of the best incoming freshman classes of all-time.

Should the Heat expect an immediate return on Cook? No. Could it happen? Yes.

First of all, dispense with the notion that a position title defines a player - in today's NBA it just doesn't. Teams want to find players that are athletic and versatile. With the NBA's new rules which favor perimeter players in this league, there is a quicker return on investment for building around a perimeter based offense.

Cook has the skills necessary to excel in the NBA: he has a great midrange shot, can stick the three and is athletic and explosive enough to drive past his defender and finish strong at the rim with contact. If Rodney Stuckey can get the label as a "poor man's Dwyane Wade", then I see no reason to not gauge Cook to have a similar impact. Put Cook at Eastern Washington and how well do you think he plays in the Big Sky conference?

Yet on the Heat, he will not have to be Dwyane Wade - just his accomplice. With Wade running the offense and dominating the ball - and being the team's best player and its best playmaker - there is little reason to really focus on finding a point guard. If the Heat were to get a PG, ideally it would be one that would hit open shots and play without the ball - now, does that sound like a real point guard?

Cook had an inconsistent Orlando performance, sure, but that camp is composed of 5 minute runs and usually everyone is focused on displaying their own individual skills and are not concerned with playing smart and effective basketball bent on winning. That means some players are going to amass a lot of mistakes, but they could also display some headiness and adjust. After all, it is a free for all - and Cook was able to turn some heads with a 22 point explosion at the end of the camp.

Adjustments were made, and interest was restored.

Kind of like being on a team with Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr - who both share the same agent, Mike Conley, Sr - there is bound to be some hiccups. Cook may have had an inconsistent season because of personal agendae as individual players were more concerned with showcasing their skills; then again the rumor is that OSU had a team-first constitution. More marketing?

And yes, Cook's ego seems huge. He doesn't lack confidence and will take the big shot and will find the big shot for himself. Every great player has a sense of overvalued ego, isn't that right Michael or Kobe?

Now, I am not saying that Cook is going to be the next great NBA player; but in fact he doesn't need to be. There already are two of the greatest players in the league on his new team, the Miami Heat. All Cook has to do is find the crease, find enough space to shoot his deadly midrange jumpers or pop off some three point shots - which he did at 42% for the Buckeyes this past season.

And you thought Oden created space? Wait 'til you meet Shaq, Daequan.

Oh wait, you already did, you say?

It's true - Shaq personally spent the entire day with Cook when he came in on Sunday to work out for the Heat. That must count for something, right?

So, as big as Cook's ego may be, it will be dwarfed in comparison to Shaq's and it will be humbled by the things Dwyane Wade does each day. There will be good influences all around him, and he will get some of the best coaching in the league. The only question is, is he hungry enough to prove himself and fight and scrap to be the best? Does he have what it takes internally to excel in the NBA?

Because that is what the Heat were missing most of all last season - hunger.

He has the physical skills and he has a healthy dose of ego to push himself and expect to be competitive - and to win. Playing alongside Dwyane Wade, he may not prove to be the greatest guard selected in this draft - but he won't have to be.

If Cook can hit his shots he will get his share of playing time. After all, it has been mentioned several times by several different beat writers that Dorell Wright's mysterious cameo appearance tonight was precisely an illustration of this - it was about how hard one needs to work to get into the starting lineup, and how one has to be consistent in hitting shots to stay there. It was inferred by Wright that because of his lack of consistency shooting the ball that he was taken out of the rotation.

If anything, Cook is ready to shoot the ball and he has something to prove. The Heat are taking a bit of a risk, but it really isn't all that much of a risk given Cook's talent and experience as a player at such a young age.

I think this pick is going to work out. It may not be immediately clear at this time, and I even question if the Heat has a plan here or if they are just flying by the seat of their pants. Daequan Cook's talent is there, the only real question is will he work hard enough to maximize it? If so, the Heat may have stolen a big talent out of this draft. If not, they waisted the pick.

But what else can you expect drafting at the 20 spot? Even in a draft as deep as this, there is going to be some doubts in the later first round. Yet with Cook, I find very little to question.

Heat Draft Daequan Cook

The early results are in: Miami has taken an interesting route to answer some questions.

They got younger and more athletic by landing Daequan Cook from Ohio State. The 6'5" shooting guard freshman was traded to the Heat, along with a 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft and some cash, by the Sixers for Jason Smith. The Heat drafted Smith at 20 while the Sixers drafted Cook at 21 and traded with the Heat for essentially one spot higher on the draft poll.

Cook, comparing his own game to that of Ray Allen (who was dealt to the Celtics), gives the Heat probably one of the best midrange shooters in the draft. He is explosive and athletic, and has the ability to finish at the rim and draw contact as well.

Take a look at Cook's Heat workout:
Daequan Cook Interview

Cook looks like a prospect that is ready to go and be an impact player offensively. He could work well with Wade as Wade will handle the ball and setup the offense while Cook can find a spot on the floor to pick his shot from and even take the ball to the hoop and draw contact. He has an ability to finish a drive in dramatic fashion and he also has three point range as well.

Daequan Cook has big time potential, eventhough there are some doubts about that. The reason why the Heat were able to take him at the 21st pick was due to the depth of this draft and in part, to Cook being overlooked. He reportedly impressed Heat officials at the Orlando pre-draft camp, and impressed them the more they saw him play during his first and only college season.

But questions remain about his second half college season performance and his championship game disappearing act as well. Certainly, there are things he needs to improve upon; one is becoming a more consistent ball handler and developing his court vision and decision making. He has the ability to take his man off the dribble and coupled with a talent like Dwyane Wade, that could be lethal for opposing teams.

Cook is a high value pick and could turn out to have more of an impact than some of his higher drafted peers but there are some things he needs to fine tune - and to be honest, a pick in the lower half of the 2nd round will have some kinks to work out. Surprisingly, there aren't as many kinks in Cook's game as some might suspect. Just some questions and doubts that he seemed to start to clear up in workouts since his college career ended.

Further Reading
MiamiHeatwave Forum Reactions

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The Heat drafted 7'2" project Stanko Barac with the 39th pick, but dealt the "Stan Van Gundy" pick to the Pacers for a 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft. Looks like the Heat will have some work to do for that draft as they now have two more picks in that draft in the second round.

2007 Point Guard Draft Ranking

Well, with the 20th pick tonight, the Miami Heat are faced with upgrading their team's talent pool in an effort to win now and get back to the Finals. Pat Riley, never one to depend on youthful talents, is faced not only with this challenge but also with overcoming his own stigma in order to help guide this team back to its promise.

Since it remains to be seen how this draft will shake out, and whether or not the Heat will even draft depending on need or on best available talent, let's look at what we do know - that Miami needs to at least consider as first priority drafting a point guard.

Let's run through the list here and see what we got.

1. Mike Conley, JR - he's arguably the top point guard prospect due to his leadership skills on the runner up OSU team. He's quick, he smart, and he has terrific handles. The question is, how much easier was the game for him since he was playing with Greg Oden? Definetly looking to be the first PG taken in the draft and a safe pick.

2. Javaris Crittenton - the young freshman has big upside, but is very raw and needs seasoning. He has the ability to play defense in the NBA right now, and his length and size make him an ideal NBA PG prospect. Very athletic, but needs more consistency on his shot.

3. Rodney Stuckey - probably the most hyped PG you have never heard about. Coming out of a small college, Eastern Washington, Stuckey dazzled his school's fans and their opponents with his back to back Big Sky MVP seasons. 6'5" combo guard that can score and defend. In terms of ceiling, this guy might have the most of any PG prospect in this draft, but it is unknown how good he will be with raised competition.

4. Acie Law, IV - a senior out of Texas A&M that lead his team with his big shots and heart. Has all the tools to be a successful PG in the NBA, but his lack of explosiveness is a concern. 6'3", which makes him an average size PG but can he be a successful defender on quicker, bigger NBA guards?

5. Gabe Pruitt - another combo guard, the 6'4" Pruitt was a big part of USC's successful 2007 campaign. He can score, he is athletic and can take his man off the dribble at any moment. He has the ability to play very good defense, but his skills are a PG are largely untested and unproven. He can get too cute at times, and also try to do too much and can turn the ball over. With some refinement, he could be a successful NBA scorer and "tweener". Should be available for the Heat at #20.

6. Petteri Koponen - another combo guard that is drawing rave reviews from scouts, the 19 year old Finnish wonder is 6'5" and has excellent upside as a playmaker and ball handler. The only question really remains is if he can play for an NBA team this season - is he ready and can he get over here? He struggles on 1-1 defense and seems to have difficulties with more physical players - needs to bulk up some and get stronger. Very young, very good upside.

7. Zabian Dowdell - Virginia Tech's 6'3" PG with a 6'9" reach. Defense, defense, defense. He has a solid outside shot, but is not a scorer. He has excellent ball handling ability and can run an offense pretty efficiently. Dowdell's hallmark, however, is his defense - he can flat out shut anyone down with his athletic ability and massive wingspan. Excellent fit for a team with a proven system that doesn't require their PG to score as much, but needs defense. Would be a pretty good pickup for the Heat in the 2nd round, but may not even need to be drafted as teams seem to be overlooking him.

8. Aaron Brooks - undersized at 5'11", he can shoot and score but his playmaking skills are inconsistent. Can get too careless and lacks good court vision - can get tunnel vision. Has great athleticism and can crossover with the best of them, can create opportunities and break down defenses, but seems to need seasoning in working within a team concept.

9. Taurean Green - listed generously at 6'0" but was a key component to Florida's back to back championships. Another system guy, Green has a pretty good outside stroke and has shown a knack for clutch play, hitting big shots when Florida needed it. His handles are just not good enough, can be somewhat clumsy and tentative with his dribble, so he could have problems at the next level really seperating himself from his defender. Can run a solid offense and be an efficient participant in a system, but limited ceiling. Solid 2nd round pick.

There is still Bobby Brown (Fullerton) and Ramon Sessions (Nevada). Both are looking to be 2nd rounders, but it doesn't seem at this point that neither will contribute too much although Sessions has some upside and is optimistically compared to Jarrett Jack. So, who knows?

Right now, it seems the Heat will have a shot at Pruitt on down. If Law wiggles on down to the Heat it most likely will be due to teams above overvaluing another position or certain traits like raw athleticism and talent - this is why I have Crittenton listed at #2 on the PG draft board. His talents make him too intriguing to pass up even though a guy like Law could step in right away and contribute. If Stuckey and Law make it down to Miami at the 20th pick, they should take a chance on Stuckey but that is unlikely as the Pistons have been noted as the favorites to pick Stuckey at 15.

Miami Heat Draft Strategy

Ira Winderman, in his blog, was waxing philosophically - that is, about the Heat's draft philosophy.

Yes, much of it will depend on what kind of mood Pat Riley wakes up in that day, but for the most part the Heat have to focus on winning now and they will have to do that by getting younger and more athletic. Of great importance is the Heat's need for perimeter players and in today's NBA, the game favors perimeter players much more than they arguably ever had.

The Heat have a strong need at point guard, as Jason Williams is an unknown factor due to his health issues while Gary Payton has all but retired. Chris Quinn is a solid prospect, but not exactly what Miami is looking for - or can't replace.

There is speculation that maybe Wade should shift over to PG and let the Heat go out and find a SG replacement.

Really, it doesn't matter.

Essentially, the Heat have two guards and both must be able to handle the ball and set up the offense. In today's NBA, with the defender being restricted in how they can defend, the perimeter player with an ability to drive will excel. Point guards are now being asked to score more and actually distribute less.

"With the game being dominated by ballhandlers, I think your point guard has to give you 10 to 15 every night," Trail Blazers scout John Gabriel said. "When they're your best players, you don't want them passing the ball. You want them scoring the ball."

Think about it, if your best scorer spends his energy passing the ball and limiting his scoring opportunities, but instead defers to a weaker scorer, what is the sense in that?

Wade, as the Heat's best player probably ever, is going to run the offense and pick his spots and create efficient scoring opportunities. He can set up his teammates and be a playmaker, but he will thrive first on his ability to score and threaten the opposing team's defense. Wade's ferocious drives to the basket often result in highlights or free throw attempts - and everyone knows I swear by FTAs.

This is also why the Suns have been more successful, why the Warriors made a big noise this postseason, and why Tony Parker had such a huge impact in the Finals.

The Heat don't have to really worry about drafting or acquiring a "true" point guard, that much Winderman is right about. But they also don't have to worry about moving Wade to point guard - as that is a move made in name only anyway.

The main problem here is limited thinking. Gone are the days when you need to have 5 positions on the floor - with the new NBA rules forcing more responsibility on perimeter players anyway, there is also the need for players to be more versatile.

Not to mention, Wade is not nearly as effective waiting for his shot - he needs to have the ball in his hands to force the defense to collapse on him. Any scheme teams try to throw out Wade gets shredded, but he needs to have the ball in his hands to do that. Especially in crunch time.

Drafting a point guard to handle the ball forces Wade to play off of him and also cuts down his effectiveness. The Heat would actually be limiting the potential of their best player.

So, in essence, the Heat actually could afford to draft a "tweener", a guard that is capable of playing both positions, and at the same time the Heat wouldn't have to be reliant upon the newly drafted player as much. This is due to Wade's abilities.

Although Randy Pfund denied the report that the Heat guaranteed Pruitt would be drafted at the 20 spot if available, as ESPN claimed, the Trojan point guard could fit this precise mold we are laying out here.

Besides, if the Heat want to acquire a pass-first PG with a good shot, they could draft Taurean Green or even Zabian Dowdell in the second round with their 39th pick. Or they could just sign Steven Blake and bring the guy back to his hometown.

As for the draft, expect the Heat to do what they typically do - draft the best talent available.

Speaking of, it is time to unleash Dorell Wright. And with both Posey and Kapono on their way out, Riley needs to focus on drafting a guard and giving PT to Wright. I agree with Ira on that final point - playing Dorell Wright.

Heat PreDraft Prospect: Gabe Pruit

USC's Gabe Pruitt could be the #20 pick in this year's NBA draft and thusly, he could move from the left coast to the East coast.

Andy Katz of ESPN has reported that the Miami Heat have promised Pruitt would not fall below the 20th pick. This has been corroborated by other teams, according to Katz (and props to JNeezy for bringing it to our attention).

What this means is that the Heat could have their man already pegged, unless someone they have ranked higher on the draft board falls to them - in which case Pfund would be earning that paycheck a heck of a lot easier.

Most of you may not know who Gabe Pruitt is, after all he plays for Tim Floyd's USC Trojans and we here on the East coast typically ignore the West coast games due to their late start times. And who really thinks the Pac 10 has the depth of the ACC or SEC for that matter.

Gabe Pruitt might be exactly what the Heat need. He's an athletic scorer that can finish at the rim and is not afraid to drive to the hoop. He has that ferocious attack you want, and he can hit his shots from outside with very good consistency. Yes, he has NBA three point range. He raised his FG% to .486 (up from .405) and improved his three point shot dramatically (.450 from .380).

He's got size for a PG at 6'4" and 170lbs - he could stand to bulk up some, but that will come as he is only 21 years old. Defensively he has good hands and great anticipation getting 1.9 steals per game this season (2.2 last season).

Really the only downside is whether or not he is a true point guard. He is a bit of a sleeper as a result as most do not know what he could do as a point guard in the NBA, but that is not something that should concern the Heat. With Wade running the show, and the offense running through him, the Heat don't have as great a need for a true PG as they may seem. Wade is going to handle the ball during clutch situations, as Riley trusts his abilities when it matters - and frankly, Wade is the best player the Heat have ever had so why wouldn't he trust him? Pruitt has the ability to switch between PG and SG roles as he can hit his outside shot while also taking his man off the dribble.

Keep an eye on Pruitt come draft night - he should be available at the 20 spot and if Riley isn't trying to pull off some draft trickery, it looks like the Heat have found their man.

More Draft Jockeying

Things have slowly been changing with the draft, and just in time. The draft is only a few days away on June 28th and it seems that things could get more interesting for the Heat.

Aside from all the rumors over big trades, which could see the Heat getting involved as a third team to help facilitate a move, there are the constant ups and downs of some of the talent in this season's crop.

The latest? Apparently Acie Law's stock is dropping because a lot of the GMs and execs are liking what they see from the more raw and undeveloped talents in this draft. Guys like Javaris Crittenton, originally slated to be there for the Heat at #20 are now sliding up the charts - which is actually good news for Miami as Law would be a better fit in that he could have a more immediate impact. That and the fact that Riley has never been a patient coach coddling along young talent, of course.

Then there is another dark horse seemingly emerging out of nowhere: Petteri Koponen. We first talked about him in our discussion on PG prospects back on May 26th. Not too much was known about the young, Finnish PG other than he had size and some pretty good physical skills to match. He's young (19) and his favorite player is Steve Nash - something the Heat could definetly use. Koponen is getting quite a lot of hype, having made an impression at the latest Nike Hoops Summit:



He is young, and might not possibly stay in the US to play in the NBA for this upcoming season, but with the 39th pick the Heat are most likely going to take on a project anyway. A player like Koponen might pay dividends down the line. Chad Ford remarked:

Koponen, according to multiple team sources, stood out with his poise, shooting and ability to adapt his game to the speed of the workout. One executive went so far as to say he saw enough to rank Koponen as the fourth-best point guard in the draft.

Also, keep an eye on Taurean Green and Glen Davis. Both were fine college players that helped their respective teams win, and both seem to be see-sawing back and forth on the draft boards. Green has gone up, but some concerns over his size and ball-handling have him staggering a bit, but he may still fall somewhere between the Heat's 20th pick and 39th picks.

As for Davis, "Big Baby" has dropped a ton of weight, from 360 to around 290. He has pretty good agility - even with all that weight - and has an interesting mental makeup that could help him excel in the NBA: a sense of humor. Coupled with his idol Shaq, who knows what could come of it. The Heat already boast another college talent that came from a winning program that also shed a ton of weight to get into the NBA. Maybe being around Udonis Haslem could help.

Miami Heat Pre-Draft 2007

The Miami Heat have been busy this offseason looking at draft prospects. As it stands, Miami currently has the 20th pick and the 39th pick in this year's draft extravaganza.

This current crop of talent is deeper than in recent years, and will probably rival the '03 draft class in terms of impact.

Who Has Worked Out

Aaron Gray - C 7' 270lbs Pitt
Jared Dudley - SF/PF 6'7" 225lbs Boston College
Curtis Sumpter - SF 6'7" 225lbs Villanova
Darryl Watkins - C 6'10" 241lbs Syracuse
Javaris Crittenton - PG 6'5" 198lbs GTech
Zabian Dowdell - PG 6'3" 190lbs VTech
DJ Strawberry - SG/SF 6'5" 201lbs Maryland
Nick Young - SG 6'6" 200lbs USC
DeAndre Rice - SG 6'3" 190lbs FAU
Taurean Green - PG 6'0" 177lbs UF

Needs

The Heat are in need of a PG and could use some depth at SF and even C.

Point Guard (PG) is a need because Jason Williams health is a yearly issue. He is in the final year of his contract, so we can all expect him to be a bit more healthier and bouncier than in recent years - mostly because his knees have gotten better since surgery, but also because he is in his "walk year". The Heat have the option to deal him, but could also keep him around. At any rate, a PG prospect that could step in as a backup and possibly as a starter is ideal since Gary Payton is all but set to retire and Chris Quinn is a free agent.

Small Forward (SF) is a need because two members of this past season's rosters, both James Posey and Jason Kapono, are free agents - and they both play the swing position. Kapono is definetly going to test the market since he got an opportunity to show his shooting abilities with the Heat last season while James Posey has had a very solid career as a defensive dynamo and intense team leader. Both could end up in another zip code next season; and both could be retained. Either way, if the Heat can grab another SF prospect out of the draft, it will give them some insurance.

Center (C) is a need, but not a real priority at this time. Both Alonzo Mourning and Michael Doleac are in the final years of their contracts - it still is not known is Zo is coming back. And with Shaq getting up there at 35 with another 3 seasons left, a backup to the Big Fella is vital. Someone is going to have to fill those big shoes someday, too.

Who Fits

With the Heat needs, in order, being a PG, SF, and C, and the picks being the 20th and the 39th, expectations have to be tailored to find depth instead of looking for that big time prospect. Most likely the Heat won't find that big time steal and future NBA star; but then again, this draft is deep enough that they just might.

Some safe picks? For PG, Acie Law would be an excellent pick, but he most likely won't be available at the 20th pick. The Clippers have been rumored to all but promise Law he will be in LA - I can see it now, LA Law. Still, some mock drafts have Law falling a bit as the draft most likely will start getting enamored by gazelle-like athletes and won't care about college credentials as much. If that is the case, the Heat may get a sniff at Law - and if they do, they better take it because they haven't had the chance to draft a decent PG since...Jameer Nelson.

There are other options though. If the Heat go with the philosophy of taking the best talent available, they may be able to snatch up a PG with the 39th pick. Taurean Green looks like a solid, second round pick to take a flyer on. He was the PG for the two time national champs and has a steady game, nothing flashy but a safe prospect. If you wanted to get even more risky with the 39th, look at Arizona's Mustafa Shakur who has the size and talent but questionable gametime execution and consistency; or perhaps Ayinde Ubaka who has had some pretty good games as Cal's PG; Bobby Brown from Cal St. Fullerton whose perogative (couldn't resist) could be to become a solid NBA player. Zabian Dowdell, whom the Heat have worked out, has the tools to be a competent NBA PG and can play excellent defense and he could also be available at 39.

Getting back to the 20th pick, if the Heat were to take the best option available, there are several prospects worth looking at that could very well provide scoring and the option to play occasional PG.

Javaris Crittenton is the young, athletic PG from Georgia Tech whose downside is he is young and has a lot to learn. He has tremendous upside, but it seems that NBA execs will not be able to pass up on that temptation and he could be gone by the 20th pick. The other question is, would Riley really want to play a 19 year old PG? Ask Dorrel Wright.

Gabe Pruitt is the big, strong scorer from USC that was more of a "tweener" than a true PG. He can play both positions, but his ball handling and decision making are shaky. Still, with Riley's offense running through Wade, does it really matter who brings the ball up past half court? Pruitt could be a big time scorer in the NBA as he has good range and a solid set of skills that will allow him to create his own shot and get around his defender.

Marco Belinelli is another tantalizing option. He is Italian and has been playing in their highest grade leagues for years now, and at 21 seems ready to test the NBA. He has some big time international experience, as he was a part of a strong Italian team this past summer in the World Basketball Classic. He has a quick release and is among one of the best young shooters in the game today. He also has pretty good athleticism and can play both the SG and PG positions - although it is preferential he play the latter. A big concern about Belinelli is his contract - he may have to wait another year to report to his NBA team.

The Heat could go with the most talented player available, in which case they just might take a chance on Derrick Byars, a senior from Vanderbilt. He is probably the most complete player in the entire NBA draft, and has all the tools to excel at the NBA level. He might not be a star, but he surely could replace a guy like James Posey or even Jason Kapono.

As for centers, Darryl Watkins (Syracuse) and Aaron Gray (Pitt) are possible options. Watkins looks to be a 2nd rounder and has been compared to Kendrick Perkins, has some athleticism and some shot-blocking ability but needs work. Gray is a seven footer and weighs about 270lbs. He has developed his game at Pitt and is starting to turn some heads. He is projecting to be a late first rounder or possibly an early second rounder, so he could be available for the Heat, but he will have to either be a reach or fall to the Heat out of luck.

Another good pick for the 2nd round could be ACC player of the year Jared Dudley. He is a PF trapped in a SF body (6'7") but has a very high basketball IQ that will help him overcome his athletic shortcomings. He is not going to outleap anyone or have that sizzle and flair for the dramatic dunk, but he can score and play excellent basketball within a system. Probably another player that would mesh well with Riley's system and intensity.

There is a lot that can change between now and June 28th. Some teams are going to target different players and that will gradually change over the next couple of weeks. What Miami has to do is choose whether it will address its needs now or go for the best talent available when it picks. If history is any indication, Miami will draft based on who is the best talent and shore up needs afterwards. The free agent period begins July 1st, and there are a few FAs out there that could provide the Heat with options to meet their need for a PG. In fact, some of the FA options could be better than the ones available in the draft - Jason Hart, Steven Blake and Jannero Pargo to name a few.

The Open J: Jonnylons' Heat Offseason Run-down

Ok, so we are forced to watch the NBA Finals now for our basketball fix. It is like watching an old re-run of the Cosby show - its light, unoffensive, and the outcome is predictable. In fact, you've seen it before.

Needless to say, the Spurs area great organization run the right way. Even if they are not truly one of the all-time great teams, they keep winning championships and this one is practically gift-wrapped for them as the Lebrons just don't have enough.

So, let's focus on the Heat and their upcoming draft and the possible moves they could be making to be where they belong - in Cleveland's spot. (So it would seem Damon Jones made the right move after all...yeah, right.)

Big Target?

Rumor has it the Heat are looking to land either Rashard Lewis or Ron Artest. Well, you might as well add Shawn Marion or Amare Stoudemire to that list, too. All options are very much long shots, and it seems the Heat's chances will be tied to what other teams do first - meaning LA. Whatever option LA decides to take to appease crybaby Kobe Bryant will determine how this offseason goes down. If the Lakers deal for Jermaine O'neal (another crybaby) then that makes the market for Ron Artest basically Miami and...Miami. Other teams might step in - after all, nothing moves product in the offseason like a combination of hype, forgetfulness and a healthy dose of delusion.

Kind of like a night out.

Rashard Lewis isn't happening because the kid wants to get paid. He has been in the NBA seemingly forever, and now wants to play somewhere where he can get recognition - and a 10+ million per season paycheck. Miami has very little to offer in a sign-and-trade scenario with Seattle, so don't look for that to happen.

Ron Artest is a good possibility, but it is tied to what LA does. They have more to offer than the Heat, but would they take a chance on Artest playing with Kobe? Having Phil Jackson around could help - as he handled Artest's idol, Dennis Rodman. Stay tuned.

Amare Stoudamire or Shawn Marion? Possibly. There is speculation that the Suns are going to be retooling - they got a new GM in Steve "Blabbermouth" Kerr and they will also be looking to prove they are STILL not Bryan Colangelo's team (who simply went up to Toronto and turned that franchise around). Both players have big contracts that will be shopped. Expect a really high bidder to get one of them.

Another dark horse option could be Boris Diaw. He has his contract for 5 more seasons, at 9M a piece. The Suns might want to cut that fat off the roster since they are only into Marion for another 2 seasons and Amare, at 24, for another 4 seasons. The Heat have enough pieces to make a deal for Diaw work - starting with Jason Williams' one year 8.5M deal. That would give Kerr some flexibility next season.

Postseason Failure = Offseason Mess

This kind of brings us to the Suns, Heat, Mavs and Pistons. All these teams hit below expectations - the Suns and Mavs putting up some excellent numbers in the regular season. The Mavs being outdone by a better team; the Suns being outdone by a league office decision.

The Pistons fell to the Cavs mostly because they got too cocky while the Heat didn't produce at all this season because they were bloated from their championship - except for Wade and Zo, of course.

The other thing all these teams will be doing is retooling their rosters - which means we could see some big movement this offseason. Miami won't be able to do anything major, but could get involved with something major should they choose. If Detroit decides to go in a new direction, Billups could sign elsewhere which means the market for free agent point guards gets a little thicker. The Heat could swoop in and get someone at a better value since their services will have stiff competition.

And so goes the ripple effect: maybe the Pistons do away with Rasheed Wallace? Other PFs on the market could get cheaper, too.

With these teams rebuilding, they will be flooding the market with talents that could affect everything from how teams draft to whom they sign or trade for. Miami is bound to find a good deal.

Draft This

The Heat need a PG and they need to get younger and more athletic. There is one clear candidate that could answer these needs for the Heat: Javaris Crittenton. The freshman from Georgia Tech has big time scoring ability, height (6'5") and can play the point. He has to refine his game, and has to develop a consistent outside shot. Scouts view him as a bit of a project, but with strong upside.

He will probably be gone by the 20th pick.

About a month ago I was hollering and whooping for this guy to be drafted by the Heat. Now, it seems, everyone knows the kid and wants to get him. Even the Heat worked him out already, this past Tuesday. So who is left?

Gabe Pruitt might be a good pick. He has big time ability and played at USC, but it is not known if he would be a PG or a SG at the next level. He could play point, as he did from time to time in college, but he has a lot to learn about the postion. That said, he is an interesting physical talent that has plenty of size and scoring ability to make it in the NBA.

A more interesting pick, in my opinion, would be Italy's Marco Belinelli. As noted in a previous blog, the Heat have to turn to undervalued resources to supply their roster. Belinelli has been compared to Ray Allen, and has an excellent shot and can score from anywhere on the floor. He has enough athleticism to play one on one and get his shot, too - just don't look for him to play defense on an NBA level. Here are some highlights of him against Slovenia:



His contract status in Europe could require a buyout but Belinelli wants to play in the NBA. Probably projects to be a Mike Miller, Manu Ginobili or Brent Barry type of player.

Other guards to consider are Rodney Stuckey (Eastern Washington), Mustafa Shakur (Arizona) and Ayinde Ubaka (Cal). Stuckey is getting a lot of buzz as he works out for teams and demonstrates excellent ball-handling skills with a tremendous scoring ability. He probably projects to be a top 25 pick at this point and could be there for the Heat at 20.

Shakur has always been a promising prospect but has underdelivered while Ubaka had a big game against UCLA and was an all Pac-10 team member as well at MVP for the Bruins this season. These final two prospects project, right now, to be 2nd rounders.

There is also the mysterious Dominic James, from Marquette. He is super quick and loaded with athleticism, but is only 5'11". He can play the point, but plays more like a two guard. He may be available in the 2nd round as most mock drafts seem to forget about him entirely.

Other possibilities for the Heat at 39 are Zabian Dowdell - who the Heat worked out on this past Tuesday as well - and Florida's Taurean Green.

Most likely to happen? Miami drafts a want at #20 and a need at #39. That would be getting it backwards, it would seem, but given that the PG crop is mostly projects and backup-grade, it would seem Miami is just as likely to find what they need at the #39 spot as at the 20th. The other consideration is Riley's dislike for playing rookies and if the Heat are going to draft a PG, he most likely won't see any significant action unless the Heat grabbed Acie Law or Mike Conley - not likely to happen.

So expect Miami to draft accordingly, unless of course they deal the picks to shore up the roster.

Heat Get Compensation for Van Gundy

Reportedly, Stan Van Gundy is leaving Miami to go to Orlando to scratch that itch to coach he has. On a side note, maybe we can get the real story once he is out of Miami and out of Riley's grasp.

The Heat are losing a terrific coaching talent, but one that would probably never grace the bench again - at least at the AAA. It's a bit disappointing, too because SVG is a very good basketball coach. I have argued in the past that he would actually be a better fit in this modern NBA than Riley for what Miami needs to do.

The price to lose a possible future replacement and to send him to a franchise not only in your own division, but in your own state? A second round pick.

And I'll take it.

Sure, it isn't quite the steep pace the Heat paid to get Riley back in '95 from the Knicks or even the price the Bucs paid for Jon Gruden. But for a coach that was on the bench for roughly two seasons? Not to bad.

Especially in this year's draft.

The Heat are getting the Magic's 39th pick, to go along with their 20th pick, and also have the option of flip-flopping with the Magic's first round pick next season - as long as it is not a lottery pick. And should Van Gundy do his job, and Miami theirs, we could see Miami get a mid-first rounder next season, too.

The Heat basically get the right to draft another player just by letting their coach go elsewhere. A coach that was doing little else than "scouting" and serving out his contract as a consultant.

There are some interesting prospects in the draft this year, and it is a deep draft. What this does is it frees Miami up to go after want more than need. At 20, they would have to take a PG that they needed to have. They still might, but instead, with the 39th pick, they could still get a PG that could serve the team's interests. Let's face it, whomever Miami drafts at 20 is as likely to play as whomever they draft at 39. Riley doesn't trust rookies and there are some PGs that could be available at 39 that could be serviceable.

Florida's Taurean Green, fresh off his second straight national championship run, could be yet another Gator added to this Heat roster. Jared Jordan, the college leader in assists; Mustafa Shakur, the ever-promising Wildcat PG; or perhaps Oregon's undersized PG Aaron Brooks could all be had at 39.

Miami now has a chance to get value at the 20th spot and find a backup PG at the 39th pick if they so choose. Or they could trade both picks to go up the charts and get something better. Or use either pick to help land a veteran in a sign-and-trade deal -- perhaps Ron Artest or Rashard Lewis?

The Heat just gained more possibilities to play around with because of Van Gundy's departure. So eventhough Miami is losing a possible head coach to take over, it wouldn't have happened until Shaq's contract ran out anyway. SVG could still take over for Riley when that time comes. In the meantime, Miami gains another draft pick and even more possibilities.

Detroit's Fall May Not be Good for the Heat

I might be the only one that is going to say this but, I think that Detroit's loss to the Cavaliers is not good. Not for the NBA, and not for the Miami Heat.

Not good for the NBA because it will not get a chance to display the best two teams in the league. That was the Western Conference semifinals, but the Suns were not allowed to really showcase themselves as they suffered a controversial summons from the big wigs upstairs. We all know that. But the Cavs and Pistons were two teams that benefited more from a misguided Bulls team - and an arrogant and gimpy Heat team - than they did from their own talents. The Cavs are a one man show, and peaked this season with their series win over the Pistons. They will disappear into thin air like Lebron's pregame ritual - witness that.

The Pistons are really the 2nd best team in the East - behind the Heat - but would offer a better challenge to the Spurs than the Cavs could possibly dream up. They matchup better, they are more experienced and have faced the Spurs in teh Finals before (2005), yet the Cavs exposed the Pistons for the overconfident wreck they are.

Truthfully, I could care less who wins the title because it was not the Heat - who had a legit shot at it but couldn't "turn it on" when they needed to. Mission failed. That said, the Cavs will not even put up much of a fight for the Spurs, whereas the Pistons would have at least made it interesting. Detroit's loss was bad for the NBA.

But for Miami? Yes, Detroit's failure to advance to the Finals was bad for them, too.

How? Well, on the surface of things, it would seem that the demise and possible breakup of the Pistons would be good for Miami. Well, it does seem that way. The problem, however, is it could make Pat Riley think that the team could stand pat again and actually stand a pretty good chance of getting back to the Finals themselves.

With Detroit out of the picture, Miami (almost by default) is the lone juggernaut in the East. Every other team - Cleveland included - is going to be viewed as incomplete which will only underscore any delusions of grandeur Miami might start to suffer from.

This would be a grave miscalculation. Miami has to retool and improve the supporting cast. It doesn't have to be drastic, but it does need to happen. They have to refuel and acquire players that are going to be hungry and capable enough to help win a title. The Heat are going to have to get younger, leaner, meaner, and yes, more athletic. Despite Detroit's possible collapse and breakup, Miami has to step it up in order to get over the hump they created for themselves this season.

Detroit's demise might actually deflate the sense of urgency Miami may have been feeling. The embarrassment of losing a first round series to a lower seeded team and getting swept in the process has to remain fresh. The fact that Cleveland is in the Finals should burn the cerebral cortex of everyone in the Heat organization. Not because Cleveland is a bad team, but because Miami is better. And that alone may give them a dangerous false sense of confidence.