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Wednesday, January 05, 2005

Breaking down the Heat's defense

The Miami Heat have risen to become one of the elite teams in the NBA. Their 25-8 record places them first in their division, but also marks them as the best team in the East right now.

Much has been said about Shaq and Wade's abilities on offense and how the Heat's offensive production has risen despite having to abandon their run and gun offense of a year ago with Lamar Odom, Caron Butler and Dwyane Wade pushing the ball up court around a much deeper athletic team. But last year's team, however, was not known to be able to stop opposing teams with their defense. This year's edition of the Heat has shown that it has an ability to shut teams down when it needs to - mostly in the fourth quarter when it has eeked out almost everyone of its 14 straight wins. So, let's take a closer look at the Heat's defense and see if we can characterize it.

Miami is ranked 4th in the NBA in opponent's field goal percentage (.425) per game.

The Heat are also ranked #14 in the NBA in opposing points per game (95.5). (San Antonio is #1 at 85.2 a contest)

So, you have a team that is holding its opponents to a low field goal % - an indication of good team defense - but allowing 95.5 points per game which is middle of the road. What gives?

Field goal attempts (FGAs) tell the story. The Heat is ranked #22 in the NBA (82.1 per game). They are also ranked #11 in field goals allowed (34.9). [Also, the Heat are #26 in 3point % allowed (.372) but #9 in 3PAs (14.8).]

Compare those stats with the Heat's own:
FGAs 77.4 (#24)
FGM 37.3 (#5)
PPG 101.1 (#5)

Lets look at the differentials:



Differentials Table
HeatOPPDIFF
FGAs77.482.1-4.7
FGM37.334.9+2.4
PPG101.195.5+5.6



So, what does this mean? It seems the Heat score very efficiently and in doing so, give the ball back to the opposing team which creates more opportunities for them. The Heat play good enough team defense to keep the opposing teams FG% down (again, .425) but seemed to be doomed by their ability to score efficiently (ironically). The Heat are #1 in the NBA in offensive FG% (.481) so 48% of the time they take a shot, it is going in and the other team is getting the ball back.

So, how does the Spurs average almost 10 points less a game? They score less than the Heat for one (96.8) and do it less efficiently, albeit not by much, (.463). But they also give up almost 5 less attempts per game (FGAs 77.0). Also, the Spurs give up almost 4 less FTs a game (22.7 - #4 in NBA - compared to Heat's 26.5 - #17). Combine those factors, and maybe that is illustrative of the difference.

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