The Open J: Wade and the Art of War

Dwyane Wade must be feeling philosophical these days. Maybe it is the copy of Sun Tzu's Art of War that Riley gave him to read.

The Heat are on a 10 game losing streak - trying to replicate their 17 game losing streak obviously. That means they are 1 for their last 28. Nice. And how is Miami all of a sudden going to turn it around? Look:

"I thought Coach really came in and made a statement of no matter what our record is we're going to continue to do what we do, and do it better," guard Dwyane Wade said.

So, the Heat are going to play spotty, confused defense, shoot inefficient and ill-timed shots, while at the same time taking a long time to set up their offense despite having no low post scoring threat. Not only that, but they are going to do it better than they had before! Wow! What a brilliant revelation!

Now of course, I love D-Wade and everything he brings to the team. And yes, I am taking this statement out of context - probably. But this only exemplifies how lost this team is.

Riley pulls a schizo trade off by dealing Shaq for Marion - good. Then proceeds to sit on the rest of the plan which should have been:

• dealing expiring contracts for talented players of similar paygrade that could help the team form its new offensive philosophy
• and possibly deal Haslem and Smush Parker in the process to help the Heat upgrade their talent pool

Yet here we are - basically the same team that got us here to 9-43 and how is that going to change? By doing the same - but better!

That is like the U.S. foreign policy these days - we are going to fix things by doing the same but better! Katrina victims, fret not. FEMA has learned their lesson. Next time we will do the same - but better!

I mean it works for movies: Rambo, the same ol'tired storyline - but better! Ishtar - the same great movie - but better!

Really, if Miami wants to improve, it has to change the horse in this race. Riley couldn't afford to stand Pat on the trade deadline - this team needs an overhaul and by not pulling the trigger on something for Smush Parker or the expiring contracts of Jason Williams and Ricky Davis he set the Heat back. Or at least made his work that much harder.

Miami can't play defense against a JV girls team right now. And Wade is the biggest culprit. He couldn't guard some slob coming onto the court from one of those fancy seats next to the team's bench, let alone any NBAer coming off the actual team bench. But that is only symptomatic of the entire Heat team - save Marion and Banks because they are coming from a team, gasp, that actually plays better defense (that is pretty hard to imagine though: PHX plays better defense than Miami?).

Read closer Wade. Ask Riley to reiterate his point - because Sun Tzu would never have said to conquer one's enemy one just has to keep doing what he always did - but better! That mentality will never force a breakthrough of change, which this franchise desperately needs. They just sold out their biggest chances at contending for a title every season in the near future. They got back a very nice player in return, but don't have enough to fix things, let alone get back to the playoffs. Monumental changes are needed and frankly to read Wade's quote is laughable.

But hey, at least they aren't quitting. They are going to do the same thing - but better!

Meanwhile, young players like Daequan Cook are sitting on the bench while the rest of us wonder if they even have any future here. Riley needs to find out and stop playing guys who don't have a future here.

The Open J: Sign PJ Brown?

The offseason is looking bleak for the Miami Heat, but there are still options available that could re-tool this team - as we have been stressing.

Another consideration, which may seem somewhat innovative and different, would be to get older.

The biggest problem for Miami last season was staying healthy: Shaq and Wade missed a combined 73 games last season. So it would seem getting older would only put the Heat more at risk of injury.

Yet, with very few financial tools as their disposal (as practically every team has the same tools to use at this time) the Heat have to meet the challenge of shoring up their roster in preparation of getting back on top. Orlando, Charlotte, even Washington and Atlanta have all improved their talent pools so winning the Southeastern division will be more of a challenge.

So, with all the retirees moving to South Florida, why not get one more? An old familiar face like PJ Brown.

Chicago power forward P.J. Brown remains available, but he reportedly favors a Florida team, the Magic or Heat, or possibly retirement. Arizona Central

It makes sense on many levels, not to mention continuing the trend of recycling ex-Heatians like Eddie Jones and Alonzo Mourning. What's one more?

More importantly, PJ Brown would still have a lot to offer this team. He brings a mental toughness that would agree with Zo, as well as a desire and intensity to win that would also complement Zo's. He can rebound, can still defend very well, and can stick that midrange jumper when needed. He would be a strong addition for a backup PF, and could even spend time at C if need be.



More importantly, he could be had for the veteran minimum $1.1M and would offer more incentive to deal Udonis Haslem to fill in at another place of need.

Sure, getting a guy who is almost 40 may seem like insanity. But this is a guy Riley can trust and he still has something to offer a team and he would get the chance to retire as a member of the Miami Heat. He could give you a solid 20 minutes a game and with the expected depth of this team, once the dust settles this offseason, he may not have to give you that much playing time and would serve as an excellent insurance policy - certainly a better option than Michael Doleac who could also be traded away as well.

The Open J: Trade Udonis Haslem

Look it is nothing personal. I love Udonis Haslem - his hustle, his grit, even his cornrows. You can keep the Gator history though (sorry, I'm a Nole). But right now, the way the market is and with the Heat trying to retool towards another championship, the time is nigh and every option needs to be explored.

Udonis Haslem is a valuable asset that is not irreplaceable. That means trade him.

It was nice for Udonis to come out in the papers yesterday and talk about how much he wants to stay in Miami and finish out his career, and also that he understands that this is a business. We would all like to keep you, if it wasn't for this darned lousy offense we have.

Udonis Haslem has a three year deal that will see him get paid 6M, 6.5M and 7.1M over that span. It's a solid deal that most teams would like to have on their rosters and he is only 27 years old. He can rebound, play defense both in the post and out on the wing, and can stick both the midrange jumper and his free throws. And he's a champion.

Irreplaceable? No.

Right now there are options on the open market that could fill in - Alexander Johnson, Melvin Ely and even Lawrence Roberts. Neither one of those options would create a hole, and even could upgrade the offense from the 4 position. Haslem is limited into a complementary role despite Riley's best efforts to try and free up Udonis - according to Riley, at least.

More pressing needs at the guard and small forward positions require the Heat to account for those needs as they are a higher priority. With limited salary options due to the cap and luxury tax cap, the Heat are faced with making a trade or two to fill those needs. Of all the assets on this roster, Udonis Haslem makes a lot of sense to deal because the market has similar talent available and at a fraction of the cost. Not to mention that dealing Jason Williams doesn't make sense because it would create a hole at PG and create more of a problem for Miami's goal of retooling the roster.

You never want to deal out of desperation.

Also, the Heat have options on the current roster that could fill-in for Haslem: Wayne Simien, Earl Barron and Antoine Walker. Sure Walker is streaky, but he can man the PF if you decided not to sign anyone and he could create matchup problems - however, he is best suited to coming off the bench. Wayne Simien has a similar skill set to Udonis, but is bigger (6'9"), longer (wingspan 7') and has better offensive moves - he just has to stay healthy. Then there is also Earl Barron, who has plenty of offense but questions remain whether or not he would be a good defender - for a center. Move him to PF and it could click as he would be able to guard PFs more easily as well as take them outside with his midrange game and outside shot.

The free agent market has options and the Heat have options on their current roster that they could use to replace Udonis Haslem. He is not irreplaceable and the Heat have more pressing needs elsewhere. Unfortunately, if the Heat are going to win again, they are going to have to be willing to surrender everything, even their own heart.

The Open J: What I'd do for Heat this offseason

Ira Winderman has unleashed his master plan of what he would do if he was in charge of the Heat. I am kind of glad he isn't.

Going after Steve Francis is smart, if it is almost assuredly going to end in mediocrity. Why? Well, the Heat have the following payment options they could tender:

1. The minimum level exception (MLE): $5.3 million
2. The bi-annual cap exception: $1.8 million
3. The veteran minimum (unlimited offers): 1.1 million

Now Francis has been bought out by Portland meaning he just got $30M for doing literally nothing. On top of that, 50% of whatever he gets in a new deal goes to Portland as part of the buyout agreement. Like Ira said, money is not an issue so Miami is competing with other teams not in how much money is to be offered, but in the situation. The Heat could get Francis for roughly 1.1 million and this would be a cost effective risk to take. If it doesn't work out, it doesn't cost the Heat much and Francis would most likely still be an asset to trade. Yet he is good friends with Shaq and his game could be an interesting complement to Wade's in that his skill set is very similar - not a great three point shot, aggressive game. Francis is a volume scorer, however, (see Walker) and if not getting the ball enough might not be able to get into the flow of the game. Still, at the cost, it is worth kicking the tires and taking Francis for a spin.

I think Mickael Pietrus is going to come to Miami. I can't figure out why the Warriors would let this guy go but hey, I am not going to quibble with that. His skill set would be a great fit in Miami - great rebounder, athletic, tough, can shoot, young. He could play the 2 or the 3 and offer the Heat a solid third option on the floor with Shaq and Wade. He can D up the tough assignments but also create enough havoc on the offensive side to help the Heat push those matchups. His flexibility would be ideal since Wade will be flopping from shooting guard to point guard and Pietrus could allow for Wright to develop into the starter we are all hoping to see. So far, so good.

Even Juan Carlos Navarro I agree with. But we have to swallow Etan Thomas or Brendan Haywood, that is for sure. Thomas is going to be make between 6.3M and 7.3M over the next three seasons while Haywood is going to earn between 5M and 6M - I would rather the latter. If the Heat were to make a deal with the Wizards it would be along those lines, it's true. I think Navarro and Haywood would offer more value because Haywood is younger and still has some ceiling left - let's face it, Washington doesn't have a game plan that would utilize Haywood's skill set as much as they are perimeter oriented. In Miami, Haywood would practice with Shaq and Zo everyday and something would just have to click, wouldn't it? Of course, that means we would have to deal Doleac as we would have no need for 4 centers on this team.

So far, that would net us:

• Francis $1.1M
  
• Pietrus $3.5M+
  
• Navarro $3M (plus buyout 2-3M)
• Haywood $5M

That is getting expensive, but of course it would be offset by a trade (Posey for Pietrus, Haslem for Navarro and Haywood?) and it would still leave us with part of the MLE, the 1.8M exception and as many 1.1M vet contracts as we can use.

I don't think dealing Doleac for Anthony Johnson is a bad move, but it might not be necessary. We would be investing in too many point guards at a certain point when what we really needa are longer defenders to mix up with other teams like the Bulls. So, these are the guys I would sign to round out the Heat roster:

• Sign Ime Udoka. He could be had for roughly $3M. Allegedly he has an offer for 3 years at $12M total - that figure is likely to include raises over the subsequent seasons and Miami could match that. Consider him a young Bruce Bowen with more offense - he can shoot the three, can lock down on anyone defensively, and is a very good rebounder.
• Sign Travis Diener. A solid PG prospect, he could replace JWill if he goes down with an injury or for some reason walks at the end of this season. I agree with Ira that there is a feeling that Williams will show up big time this season but it will depend on Riley letting him play. Diener, on the other hand, played alongside Wade in college and can do a lot of the same things Williams can do, just not quite as flashy. Cheap, probably $1.1M or less.
• Sign Alexander Johnson. If we are going to trade away Haslem, we need to get some PF depth back. If any of these deals go through, Johnson could provide a very strong option at PF and for a great cost - less than 1M. He's young and has a great power game (see previous blog entry).
• Sign Dahntay Jones. at 6'6" we get more size; he can matchup defensively with more players and can also knock down his shots (41% from three). He is athletic and just looking for a good chance and Miami would be a great fit for his game. He can play alongside Wade or go small at SF, too. Made 1.8M last season, offer him the bi-annual exception to play with the Heat.
  
• Re-sign EJ. $1.1M should get it done, and Eddie is reliable, professional, and could play in key situations when you need something done along the way.

Where does that put things under my plan?

• Udoka $4M
• Diener -$1M
• Johnson -$1M
• Jones $1.8M
• EJ $1.1M

That means for the MLE you get Udoka, Diener and Johnson while for the bi-annual you get Dahntay Jones and for a veteran minimum contract you keep EJ. That is five players that can contribute right away and you are still free to explore Francis (at 1.1M), a trade with the Warriors for Pietrus (sign-and-trade) and possibly even still explore the Navarro situation (he would have to take less money in this case, but he would be freed from his Barcelona club) as a trade could still make that happen.

You also gain more flexibility as you also must keep an eye on Trey Johnson and Jeremy Richardson from the Summer League, but if these acquisitions are made you really only need Trey Johnson.

Final Roster:

G Jason Williams
G Dwyane Wade
G Steve Francis
G Daequan Cook
G Trey Johnson
G Travis Diener
G/F Dahntay Jones
G/F Mickael Pietrus
G/F Eddie Jones
G/F Ime Udoka
F Antoine Walker
PF Alexander Johnson
PF Udonis Haslem
PF Wayne Simien
C Shaquille O'neal
C Alonzo Mounring
C Micheal Doleac

Of course, that is over 15 players, but not all moves would need to be made. There are plenty of options still out there that could be had for the Heat that could drastically improve their roster and it doesn't mean they should go after the tried and true veteran players that are looking to latch on with a winner because they have health concerns or bought out contracts.

The Heat have to be smart and go for value and with the market the way it is, there are plenty of options that could be had well below percieved value (Pietrus, see also Matt Barnes).

The Open J: Jonnylons' Heat Offseason Run-down

Ok, so we are forced to watch the NBA Finals now for our basketball fix. It is like watching an old re-run of the Cosby show - its light, unoffensive, and the outcome is predictable. In fact, you've seen it before.

Needless to say, the Spurs area great organization run the right way. Even if they are not truly one of the all-time great teams, they keep winning championships and this one is practically gift-wrapped for them as the Lebrons just don't have enough.

So, let's focus on the Heat and their upcoming draft and the possible moves they could be making to be where they belong - in Cleveland's spot. (So it would seem Damon Jones made the right move after all...yeah, right.)

Big Target?

Rumor has it the Heat are looking to land either Rashard Lewis or Ron Artest. Well, you might as well add Shawn Marion or Amare Stoudemire to that list, too. All options are very much long shots, and it seems the Heat's chances will be tied to what other teams do first - meaning LA. Whatever option LA decides to take to appease crybaby Kobe Bryant will determine how this offseason goes down. If the Lakers deal for Jermaine O'neal (another crybaby) then that makes the market for Ron Artest basically Miami and...Miami. Other teams might step in - after all, nothing moves product in the offseason like a combination of hype, forgetfulness and a healthy dose of delusion.

Kind of like a night out.

Rashard Lewis isn't happening because the kid wants to get paid. He has been in the NBA seemingly forever, and now wants to play somewhere where he can get recognition - and a 10+ million per season paycheck. Miami has very little to offer in a sign-and-trade scenario with Seattle, so don't look for that to happen.

Ron Artest is a good possibility, but it is tied to what LA does. They have more to offer than the Heat, but would they take a chance on Artest playing with Kobe? Having Phil Jackson around could help - as he handled Artest's idol, Dennis Rodman. Stay tuned.

Amare Stoudamire or Shawn Marion? Possibly. There is speculation that the Suns are going to be retooling - they got a new GM in Steve "Blabbermouth" Kerr and they will also be looking to prove they are STILL not Bryan Colangelo's team (who simply went up to Toronto and turned that franchise around). Both players have big contracts that will be shopped. Expect a really high bidder to get one of them.

Another dark horse option could be Boris Diaw. He has his contract for 5 more seasons, at 9M a piece. The Suns might want to cut that fat off the roster since they are only into Marion for another 2 seasons and Amare, at 24, for another 4 seasons. The Heat have enough pieces to make a deal for Diaw work - starting with Jason Williams' one year 8.5M deal. That would give Kerr some flexibility next season.

Postseason Failure = Offseason Mess

This kind of brings us to the Suns, Heat, Mavs and Pistons. All these teams hit below expectations - the Suns and Mavs putting up some excellent numbers in the regular season. The Mavs being outdone by a better team; the Suns being outdone by a league office decision.

The Pistons fell to the Cavs mostly because they got too cocky while the Heat didn't produce at all this season because they were bloated from their championship - except for Wade and Zo, of course.

The other thing all these teams will be doing is retooling their rosters - which means we could see some big movement this offseason. Miami won't be able to do anything major, but could get involved with something major should they choose. If Detroit decides to go in a new direction, Billups could sign elsewhere which means the market for free agent point guards gets a little thicker. The Heat could swoop in and get someone at a better value since their services will have stiff competition.

And so goes the ripple effect: maybe the Pistons do away with Rasheed Wallace? Other PFs on the market could get cheaper, too.

With these teams rebuilding, they will be flooding the market with talents that could affect everything from how teams draft to whom they sign or trade for. Miami is bound to find a good deal.

Draft This

The Heat need a PG and they need to get younger and more athletic. There is one clear candidate that could answer these needs for the Heat: Javaris Crittenton. The freshman from Georgia Tech has big time scoring ability, height (6'5") and can play the point. He has to refine his game, and has to develop a consistent outside shot. Scouts view him as a bit of a project, but with strong upside.

He will probably be gone by the 20th pick.

About a month ago I was hollering and whooping for this guy to be drafted by the Heat. Now, it seems, everyone knows the kid and wants to get him. Even the Heat worked him out already, this past Tuesday. So who is left?

Gabe Pruitt might be a good pick. He has big time ability and played at USC, but it is not known if he would be a PG or a SG at the next level. He could play point, as he did from time to time in college, but he has a lot to learn about the postion. That said, he is an interesting physical talent that has plenty of size and scoring ability to make it in the NBA.

A more interesting pick, in my opinion, would be Italy's Marco Belinelli. As noted in a previous blog, the Heat have to turn to undervalued resources to supply their roster. Belinelli has been compared to Ray Allen, and has an excellent shot and can score from anywhere on the floor. He has enough athleticism to play one on one and get his shot, too - just don't look for him to play defense on an NBA level. Here are some highlights of him against Slovenia:



His contract status in Europe could require a buyout but Belinelli wants to play in the NBA. Probably projects to be a Mike Miller, Manu Ginobili or Brent Barry type of player.

Other guards to consider are Rodney Stuckey (Eastern Washington), Mustafa Shakur (Arizona) and Ayinde Ubaka (Cal). Stuckey is getting a lot of buzz as he works out for teams and demonstrates excellent ball-handling skills with a tremendous scoring ability. He probably projects to be a top 25 pick at this point and could be there for the Heat at 20.

Shakur has always been a promising prospect but has underdelivered while Ubaka had a big game against UCLA and was an all Pac-10 team member as well at MVP for the Bruins this season. These final two prospects project, right now, to be 2nd rounders.

There is also the mysterious Dominic James, from Marquette. He is super quick and loaded with athleticism, but is only 5'11". He can play the point, but plays more like a two guard. He may be available in the 2nd round as most mock drafts seem to forget about him entirely.

Other possibilities for the Heat at 39 are Zabian Dowdell - who the Heat worked out on this past Tuesday as well - and Florida's Taurean Green.

Most likely to happen? Miami drafts a want at #20 and a need at #39. That would be getting it backwards, it would seem, but given that the PG crop is mostly projects and backup-grade, it would seem Miami is just as likely to find what they need at the #39 spot as at the 20th. The other consideration is Riley's dislike for playing rookies and if the Heat are going to draft a PG, he most likely won't see any significant action unless the Heat grabbed Acie Law or Mike Conley - not likely to happen.

So expect Miami to draft accordingly, unless of course they deal the picks to shore up the roster.