Lottery Fate for Heat Tonight

The thread is pulled and ready to be snipped. The fate of an awful 20th season for the Heat will finally be realized tonight. Will the spoiled fruits of their labors be rewarded with a #1 pick or will they slip down the slope to the #4 pick and force to rethink their quick turnaround?

The Heat are a playoff team right now, let's face it. A healthy Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and a solid supporting cast can get them back to the postseason. But this is not just about getting back, but about getting back on top.

The top pick would assure the Heat of a better chance of getting there.

The Heat also have limited financial options. Sure, after this season they will be rid of Shawn Marion's contract, but if they want to keep him they have to pony up. Getting a young stud at a reduced rate for a few years would help greatly in their rebuilding efforts. Even if rumors of Carlos Boozer's desire to play in Miami are true, the Heat cannot be realistically expected to make a big splash in the trade market.

Then again, no one thought Antoine Walker's contract could be moved. Or Shaq's for that matter.

So, the Heat will find out what fate awaits their draft this year. Finally, we can end the speculation about what pick the Heat will have and start focusing on the talent that is available and what effect it could have on this team. I still say with the number one pick the Heat should draft...Michael Beasley. Tonight, we find out if that is even a possibility.

Discuss with us.

Training Camp 2007: It All Starts Here

The offseason hasn't been kind to the Miami Heat - in fact, it seems like they put the "off" in offseason.

From the misses on Mo Williams, Mickael Pietrus, Juan Carlos Navarro - even Charlie Bell - Miami was unable to add a marquee name to its roster. Heck, even a somewhat vague name would have helped.

There is hope though. After years of stacking up with veteran help signing to the bare minimum, Riley FINALLY shifted gears a bit and stocked up on young talent - signing them to the bare minimum.

There is a noted difference in camp with the younger crowd. The team seems a bit more hungry and energetic - things they definitely were not last season.

The buzz? Keep an eye on Jeremy Richardson. We have been pretty high on this guy's athletic ability and his skills offensively. He was kind of labeled a project with some upside, but he has matured physically and with the Heat's system, they may be able to fine tune him enough to get into the rotation. Riley has commented that Richardson reminds him of a young Glen Rice, which would obviously be a good thing for the Heat since they will need to find an offensive shooting presence off the bench to replace Jason Kapono.

Another young guy to keep an eye on is Alexander Johnson. If he can show his promise and deliver consistent performances, he could squeeze into the backup PF role that was envisioned for Wayne Simien. Johnson, however, has more skill, more size, more explosiveness. If both he and Richardson can show they belong, the role for Antoine Walker, the Heat's most controversial and most inefficient player, becomes diminished.

At point guard there seems to be some excitement over Jason Williams' quickness returning. He has said that he feels the best he has in about 5 years, and that his lateral quickness is back and he can actually penetrate into the paint. Everyone has been raving about J-Dub's ability to pass the ball and how his energy level is up. Shedding 15 pounds and resting some surgically repaired knees will help.

Which brings us to Williams' backup, Smush Parker. It seems an ankle injury that never healed is bugging him, keeping him limited in practice for now. Rest assured, that the Heat have a capable backup PG that could keep pushing the tempo once Williams' is resting on the bench. Riley, of course, realizes he cannot push Jason Williams as much, but if healthy, it would be more prudent to keep him minutes limited so he can endure the regular season for the post season.

Yet, if Parker is not able to practice, there is an interesting battle for the 3rd spot heating up between Chris Quinn and Brian Chase. Chase was recently signed by the Heat after Shaq recommended him to Riley. The ex Utah Jazz point guard displays great quickness and agility and proves to be a tough defensive assignment at only 5'9". He is also pushing pressure on Chris Quinn to make the final roster.

As for other tidbits from the start of camp, there is Penny Hardaway's future with the Heat, which seems to be that of veteran presence off the bench much like Shandon Anderson was or even Eddie Jones was of last season. Also, Daequan Cook continues to show promise - the good news is he is playing with confidence and he is in shape. If he can continue to develop his game, he might get some solid minutes in the regular season.

And then there is the biggest question mark of all, Dorell Wright. If he can finally live up to the promise of being the Heat's only high school draft pick ever, it would be a boon for the Heat. He has grown, he has filled out some, and he seems to be taking a much more mature and professional approach this summer as he takes on probably his more pivotal point of his career. If he can show defensive skill while at the same time controlling the ball and hitting his jumper consistently, Riley may have found his starting small forward. If not, the Heat may be pressed to make a move.

Could the Heat Trade for Jermaine O'neal?

Apparently, Jermaine O'neal wants out of Indy and a trip to LA. That's nice. But since we are speculating here, why not see if Miami could be a suitable option for the other O'neal?

The rumor is that the Lakers have been pushing for JLo, as I like to call him due to his incessant on-court whining, but have been only offering Andrew Bynum and Kwame Brown as integral parts of the deal. The Pacers want Odom, but the Lakers want to keep Lamar to integrate further into their triangle which is the crux of Phil Jackson's "genius" label, eventhough it comes from Tex Winters.

Can the Heat trump that deal? Possibly.

Jermaine O'neal is scheduled to make 19.7M, 21.3M and 22.9M over the next three years. That is pretty sizeable.

The Heat could counter with Jason Williams (8.9M) and Antoine Walker (8.5M) for a total of 17.4M.

This leaves the Heat about 2.3M short in the financial aspect of the deal. So, throw in Udonis Haslem (6.0M) and the Heat are roughly up 3.7M. The Pacers could counter with Jamaal Tinsley, who makes 6.3M this upcoming season: Heat would be -2.6M.

Now the Heat could counter with offering Dorell Wright (1.7M) or they could take one of the aforementioned players off the board (Udonis Haslem, or even Jason Williams or Antoine Walker) and instead use James Posey as a sign-and-trade to make the numbers stick.

The question remains, is this a more attractive offer for the Pacers than Bynum and Brown? It could be because they would be getting O'neal's contract off the books and getting solid value in return. Jason Williams would come off their books and free the Pacers up to spend roughly 8M more next season. They could also get Walker off the books via a buyout or ride it out one more season and get him off the books in 2008-2009. The Pacers would also get rid of Jamaal Tinsley's risky contract - he has 4 more years left (6.3M, 6.7M, 7.2M, and 7.5M) and with injury concerns.

For the Heat, it would be an interesting move that would generate some more buzz to counter the Boston trade for Kevin Garnett. The Heat would gain that legit third star they need to take pressure off of Shaq and Dwade and it might be enough to vault them back into championship contention immediately. The Heat would also gain a floor leader whose skill set would complement Wade and Shaq's much better - a strong defender who can handle the ball and move the offense. With Jermaine O'neal, the Heat wouldn't require Tinsley to score but he could stick the open shot when needed.

Ultimately, the Heat would give up:
Jason Williams
Antoine Walker
Udonis Haslem
Dorell Wright
and/or James Posey

and recieve from the Pacers in return:
Jermaine O'neal
Jamaal Tinsley

Of course, that is 4 or possibly 3 players that the Pacers would recieve in exchange for two and roster moves would have to be made to make room.

The real question is, why couldn't the Heat get involved in trade talks with the Pacers? Couldn't they offer just as much if not more than the Lakers? Would they be willing to do so? Would it cost the Heat too much down the road? The answer to that last question is not really. Sure, they would have three players with around a combined 55M payroll, but the contracts would last until Shaq's final season 2009-2010. Both O'neals would come off the books and Wade would have a player option in place should he choose to invoke it.

It's too much of a risk to not try and make that move. Especially as how much better the East has gotten this past offseason.

Free Agent Watch: Best Options for Miami Heat

With all the talk about landing big name free agents circulating in relation to the Miami Heat, I wanted to take a second and remind everyone that the likelihood of it happening is very very small.

The Heat have virtually no wiggle room due to big ticket items like Dwyane Wade (12.5M) and Shaq (20M) and are forced into finding more cost effective alternatives due to their financial constraints.

The Heat have a payroll for the upcoming season that is estimated to cost $64M for 9 players - the most attractive assets are Jason Williams and his 8.9M expiring deal and possibly James Posey's sign-and-trade potential as the Heat can offer him a better deal than his new team could and there is expected to be competition for his services. The Heat, realistically, cannot match offers from other teams to keep Posey (yet, as this article will show they really shouldn't anyway).

The rest:

Antoine Walker has 2 years at 8.5M with a team option in 2009-2010
Udonis Haslem has 3 more years at 6M rising to 7M in 2009-2010
Micheal Doleac is in his final year at 3.1M
Zo is in his final year at 2.7M but it is only speculated that he is returning
Dorell Wright is in his final year at 1.7M but Heat can match offers next season
Wayne Simien will make 997K with a team option for 1.8M next season

Now, owner Mickey Arison has stated he will pay luxury tax dollars for a player that is worth it - so that is the main reason for public speculation about the Heat acquiring another big name. Yet the reality is, there are teams with slightly more to offer and the chances for the Heat are not as good as some in the media might dare to portray.

Yet, there is plenty of hope left for the Heat to re-tool their lineup. In fact, the options that are out there can be much more enticing.

I am going to outline a couple of unrestricted free agent options that could immediately help this team get better and deepen its talent pool in the areas it needs help. What are those areas? Good question, and a great place to start.

Let's play GM:

Point Guard.

The Heat need point guard depth as Gary Payton is retiring (not official yet...but 99% chance he does not return with the Heat), Jason Williams has question marks over each knee and Chris Quinn is solid, but not proven enough to build with.

Options.

- Steve Blake. He is a hometown kid with a pass first mentality and his motor runs but never blows a gasket out there. He knows his limits and plays safe, smart basketball. He has pretty good handles, can penetrate and can stick the open three. Not going to offer too much defensively, but for the price would be a much more valuable alternative to Jason Williams. As such, would free up the Heat to deal Williams and his expiring contract.

- Jason Hart. Despite being 31, has a lot of minutes still in him, but just needs a place to play. A very good defender for his position, not a huge scorer but a solid passer and can shoot the open three - the only question is can he knock it down consistently? Can run an offense and do what is asked and for the price, could be another valuable alternative to Gary Payton - may only take the veteran minimum depending on the market.

- Brevin Knight. Probably the best defender at his position on the market, but concerns about his durability is what got him on the open market in the first place. Basically, he's fragile, but when he is healthy he is one of the better floor generals and playmakers at his position. Great assist man and offers low turnovers. Can't shoot to save his life, but can get to the rim and create. Not a scorer, but has his nights. Could be had for the veteran minimum and could start on the Heat because Wade will do most of the heavy lifting on offense and Knight could hold it down defensively.

- Jannero Pargo. Another rangy guard that has great quickness and athleticism, but needs a place to play. He can shoot the three and can run an offense; defensively he can get busy while bouncing in and out of lanes and has the physical tools to guard his man. May cost a little bit more because he has a perceived potential that could result in a higher ceiling of the guards available. Like Blake, may be looking for the entire MLE (mid-level exception worth about $5.6M).

Small Foward.

The Heat have another hole forming at small forward due to the free agent status of James Posey and the now-departed Jason Kapono. The Heat at least have Dorell Wright, a building piece in that spot, and can play Antoine Walker at the small forward position (where he started, incidentally, for the championship team in 2006) although it isn't recommended.

Options.

- Ime Udoka. Very good perimeter defender as well as solid shooter: he can hit the three, he can hit his free throws and he won't try to do too much on offense. An excellent candidate to replace James Posey and he will do so at a much cheaper price (made 744K last season). Starter caliber SF with excellent defense and spot up shooting as well as tough and physical and will battle for loose balls and rebounds. His age (turning 30) could price him down which makes him a bargain for the cash-strapped Heat. Only 3 years as a pro in the NBA which means, like Hart, has a lot of game left in his legs at this point.

- Jumaine Jones. Another tough perimeter defender that could lock down the SF position but has a little more experience scoring the ball with other teams. Actually younger than Udoka, but has more experience in the NBA. Just a very good and solid all around game, he also can replace Posey at a fraction of the cost - only made 744K last season as well.

- Devean George. This guy always seems like he has more potential, extremely gifted athlete and can defend at SF, PF and even SG. Has a nice shooting touch and can score the ball from time to time and will have his break out games as well. Has experience and has played with Shaq back in his Laker days. Might cost a bit more than Udoka and Jones, however, as he has had a more consistent NBA career. Opted out of a guaranteed $2M contract for next season, so not as much value especially considering his disappointing performance last season with the Mavs.

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Not only would these options answer questions for the Heat and address needs, they would also offer a strong package of complementary pieces that could build around Wade and Shaq for the next three years. Each player listed should be signed using the MLE and the only ones looking to use the entire MLE are Blake and possibly Pargo.

Signing these players also frees the Heat up to move other pieces and contracts that are on the books. For example, finding a replacement for Jason Williams allows the Heat to deal Williams; finding a replacement for James Posey allows the Heat to deal Pose. What this means is the Heat could sign-and-trade Posey, coupled with Williams' expiring contract, and get back a bigger piece to obtain that third scoring option they so badly need. This does not require the Heat to deal Udonis Haslem or Antoine Walker, which they also cold do provided they get back a PF in the deal to account for Haslem's loss - such a PF does not have to be an all-world talent, instead he just has to rebound and help spread the floor. It is debatable at this time if Simien could do this himself, although it remains a very good possibility.

The Heat don't have to rebuild, just reload. They can do this affordably given the options on the market but it would be advisable that they move quickly as teams are looking to make that quick deal in the beginning of the free agent period so that teams don't have a chance to sign-and-trade with their own free agents.

Dorrel Wright Should Start

This is a plea for sanity. Pat Riley, you paying attention?

Look, it isn't that I don't love what you have done with the place, but it is time to tweak things just a bit more. The funny thing is, you don't really have a choice.

Dwyane Wade is out. He will rehab and I sense he will only come back to the Heat if he thinks it is really worth it. Sounds like an audition? Well, it is.

Jason Kapono, in the midst of a huge slump, twists his ankle and is going to be out for the meantime. It might be 5 games, it might be more. Strangely, I don't feel that bad about it because it seems Wade made Kapono the player he is more so than Shaq was going to. Just look at Kapono's recent games: in his last 6 games, he has only scored double digits twice (17 against Cleveland, 24 against the Knicks). Before that, you would have to go back 1 month to catch a game where the Kap'n didn't drop double digits on a team.

So, here Riley sits behind his desk, the shades drawn close to keep the light from entering. Dark, dank, Riley, hands on his forehead supporting his head over his desk while he stares at his roster. Now what? Now who? What will work?

The Heat are 3.5 games in back of Washington for the division lead. The Heat are in sole possession of the 6th spot in the standings and only 7.5 in back of Detroit for the #1 spot. Things couldn't be better considering.

Yet, the Heat are going to have to rely on an older team to get them into the playoffs. Shaq, drawing rave reviews around the league, is the Shaq of old, and at 35 that seems like no minor accomplishment. Yet, let's not forget that the Diesel has only played in 19 games this season.

This is precisely the reason now is the right time for Dorell Wright. The Heat have a veteran heavy team, and although two of them -- Shaq and Eddie Jones -- have seen lighter action, the rest of them have not.

Dorell Wright is a better solution for a starter over Walker and Posey. Why? Well, Walker is just horribly inconsistent - some nights he's on, some nights he never gets out of his warmups. Or at least he shouldn't.

As for Posey, he is the energy guy in this lineup. He seems more comfortable coming off the bench and giving the Heat a boost when they need it. He is the Red Bull of this team, just pop him open and let him go.

Wright presents an interesting possibility to the Heat's starting lineup. For starters, he can play the 2 guard or small forward, but considering Riley is starting EJ for Wade, it seems Wright would be mostly at SF.

Wright has long arms, and can defend smaller or bigger players. He is an excellent rebounder - bringing a dimension that Kapono doesn't. He can also handle the ball and bring it up over the half court - if Riley wanted to cut JWill loose for a moment. Wright can score inside or outside - his shot is coming along and maturing. Plus, Wright has shown more poise on the court and understands what to do at certain times offensively.

If this kid is going to develop and be a part of this franchise, Riley has to let him go loose out there. Now is his chance. The crazy thing is, Riley doesn't have much choice.

To roll Walker out as the starting SF would be to kill the bench's potential for scoring - which has scored 30+ points in the last two contests. And with the premium on scoring with this team already, you might not want to mess with the rhythm.

Sure, Wright doesn't have the range that Kapono has or even Posey, but that isn't the thing the first unit needs as much. EJ is serving Shaq the ball in the post, which was helping keep team defenses honest from doubling Shaq. Yet, EJ's stroke isn't quite there yet, but he can make that three off of a Shaq re-post or kick -- Kapono wasn't being given that chance by Riley anyway. So, Wright would replace Kapono and that dynamic suffers nothing.

The other thing to consider is Wright can create with his dribble. If Shaq is having a hard time in the post, kick it out and around to Wright who could penetrate and create - something Payton is not having much success doing.

Wright adds another dimension of athleticism, of speed, heck, of youth to this team. If this team is going to get deeper into the playoffs, they might as well have everyone sharpened and ready to go.

It's the Wright time for Wright.

Walker is Playing with Fire

Who would have thunk it? Antoine Walker is now playing his best basketball all season, and all it took was a deactivation from Pat Riley, due to fitness qualifications, to get his attention.

Three games back, each time dropping 13 points while coming off the bench, and each time out he has hit three 3pointers. He is shooting 52% from the field since his return, 53% from downtown.

Some cite the return of the old leather ball as helping Walker out, and he has echoed this sentiment. Whether or not it is true, it is certain that Numero Ocho is playing with more confidence now than he was at any point in this season and part of that could be due to the return of the old ball, something he is more familiar with. A perfect snapshot was during the Lakers game, which the Heat lost but showed their offense is ready to match up with anyone, Walker passed up a three point shot and took the ball into the painted area to set up a teammate. This demonstrates that Walker is growing his game and understands that he doesn't need to shoot three pointers to be an effective scorer or teammate, but to use that as a weapon to create plays.

Walker got his body fat percentage down to the 10% mandate Riley demanded of him. Folks, I ain't gonna lie - that isn't easy to do. For anyone. Heck, mine I just found out is, let's say over 20%. (I won't reveal how high as, well, I have to spare SOME dignity! Besides, I joined a gym! Riley hasn't deactivated me just yet from this blog...but if he reads this, he just might...) To get it down to 10% is quite a physical achievement - so let's not question Walker's commitment to the team any longer. It is easy to do from the sidelines, where we sit in our ivory towers judging players without knowing their situations, all too easy, but Walker is a competitor and wants to win and contribute to this team's success.




And now he has that opportunity and is making the most of it. Walker has been a very polarizing figure among us Heat fans; some claim he is a bum only concerned with his own numbers, others see him as a very competitive guy who is trying his best to adjust to his new role.

I think it is time we start fresh with Walker. Toine' is showing signs of growth and maturity. He is adjusting to his role and may continue to come off the bench for the remainder of the season - as Jason Kapono looks to keep his hot shooting hand in the starting spot.

The Walker Wiggle is back. Sure, he was the guy when asked why he shoots so many threes he replied,"because there are no fours" but that is what we have to love about the guy. He will do whatever it takes to win and to get his team over the top.

And since his return, he has been playing pretty good basketball. Let's hope it continues.