Deal or No Deal?

The question is becoming paramount, almost the defining point of this season - should Miami trade for help or not?

The Heat are 8-24 and even as Ira Winderman points out, it is with great optimism at this point the Heat could get back to contending for a playoff spot. Let alone a shot at the title. The Heat would have to win 33 of their remaining 50 games to get to that .500 winning percentage which basically assures a playoff spot. That means 33-17 the rest of the way and there is no reason to estimate that as probable.

The season, as it stands, is a failure. The only questions to be answered is how many games will Whaq show up for and how many games will Riley coach from here on out.

The Heat have to commit to the future - that is what Riley himself seems to be commenting about.

So the answer is obvious - the Heat are in win maybe mode. They need to refocus on the young players they have (Cook, Wright, Barron, Quinn, Joel Anthony and Alexander Johnson) and see where that takes them. Maybe even Cook, Wright and Wade could turn out to be something akin to the Odom, Butler and Wade lineup that was on the verge of shocking the world (at least Indiana) in the 2003-2004 season.

Even Isiah Thomas, the league's worst GM, realizes that today's NBA game is a small man's game. Riley, for all his coaching talents, has only begun to realize this last season. At least publicly. But let's not make the same mistake Thomas has made - taking whatever is available and forcing it to work - that seems to be what this past offseason was about.

Sure, Riley tried this offseason: yet as Yoda says, "do or do not, there is no try". And he did not improve the Heat's chances with the players he acquired. Thankfully, he did not put the Heat in as bad of a position as Isiah did with the contracts he got in return. Arison wouldn't sign off on it.

The Heat now are forced to build around what they have. What they have is a frustrated young superstar in Wade who doesn't like losing. What they have is a grumpy old center that has to find a way to recover his game as it slips from his mighty hands. Shaq's refusal to reinvent himself in his latter years is the true reason why Miami is faced with the fall from grace few championship teams have ever faced. The Heat look more like a flash in the pan than a sustaining force. A trend more than a classic.

But there is hope if one chooses to see it. Daequan Cook looks to be a legit NBA scorer with star potential - he has the mental makeup to stay in this league and build with Wade. So does Dorell Wright - when Riley actually plays the both of them which injury has forced him to.

Riley's inability to change also has been his downfall. Stan Van Gundy always showed an ability to work with whatever he was given - just look at how much his team changed from 03-04 to 04-05 and how the Heat sustained success. He did something even Riley in his rigidness could not do.

There should be no deal for Miami unless it is a deal for the future and not for the now. Any deal to try and salvage this season should be predicated on the fact that the Heat are not going to win a championship this season but look to the future instead. If Riley, proving stubborn and ever the optimist, makes the mistake of dealing for parts to win now, he is mortgaging the future on his narrow view as a coach instead of a broader view which is demanded of a GM.

There is no greater illustration of this than Riley's gamble on Jason Williams knees. The Heat's 2007-2008 season was bet on his creaky knees being healthy and as a result the Heat franchise has stumbled and now are found on their knees.

Training Camp 2007: It All Starts Here

The offseason hasn't been kind to the Miami Heat - in fact, it seems like they put the "off" in offseason.

From the misses on Mo Williams, Mickael Pietrus, Juan Carlos Navarro - even Charlie Bell - Miami was unable to add a marquee name to its roster. Heck, even a somewhat vague name would have helped.

There is hope though. After years of stacking up with veteran help signing to the bare minimum, Riley FINALLY shifted gears a bit and stocked up on young talent - signing them to the bare minimum.

There is a noted difference in camp with the younger crowd. The team seems a bit more hungry and energetic - things they definitely were not last season.

The buzz? Keep an eye on Jeremy Richardson. We have been pretty high on this guy's athletic ability and his skills offensively. He was kind of labeled a project with some upside, but he has matured physically and with the Heat's system, they may be able to fine tune him enough to get into the rotation. Riley has commented that Richardson reminds him of a young Glen Rice, which would obviously be a good thing for the Heat since they will need to find an offensive shooting presence off the bench to replace Jason Kapono.

Another young guy to keep an eye on is Alexander Johnson. If he can show his promise and deliver consistent performances, he could squeeze into the backup PF role that was envisioned for Wayne Simien. Johnson, however, has more skill, more size, more explosiveness. If both he and Richardson can show they belong, the role for Antoine Walker, the Heat's most controversial and most inefficient player, becomes diminished.

At point guard there seems to be some excitement over Jason Williams' quickness returning. He has said that he feels the best he has in about 5 years, and that his lateral quickness is back and he can actually penetrate into the paint. Everyone has been raving about J-Dub's ability to pass the ball and how his energy level is up. Shedding 15 pounds and resting some surgically repaired knees will help.

Which brings us to Williams' backup, Smush Parker. It seems an ankle injury that never healed is bugging him, keeping him limited in practice for now. Rest assured, that the Heat have a capable backup PG that could keep pushing the tempo once Williams' is resting on the bench. Riley, of course, realizes he cannot push Jason Williams as much, but if healthy, it would be more prudent to keep him minutes limited so he can endure the regular season for the post season.

Yet, if Parker is not able to practice, there is an interesting battle for the 3rd spot heating up between Chris Quinn and Brian Chase. Chase was recently signed by the Heat after Shaq recommended him to Riley. The ex Utah Jazz point guard displays great quickness and agility and proves to be a tough defensive assignment at only 5'9". He is also pushing pressure on Chris Quinn to make the final roster.

As for other tidbits from the start of camp, there is Penny Hardaway's future with the Heat, which seems to be that of veteran presence off the bench much like Shandon Anderson was or even Eddie Jones was of last season. Also, Daequan Cook continues to show promise - the good news is he is playing with confidence and he is in shape. If he can continue to develop his game, he might get some solid minutes in the regular season.

And then there is the biggest question mark of all, Dorell Wright. If he can finally live up to the promise of being the Heat's only high school draft pick ever, it would be a boon for the Heat. He has grown, he has filled out some, and he seems to be taking a much more mature and professional approach this summer as he takes on probably his more pivotal point of his career. If he can show defensive skill while at the same time controlling the ball and hitting his jumper consistently, Riley may have found his starting small forward. If not, the Heat may be pressed to make a move.

The Open J: Grab Bag

So the offseason has been a bit slow, but some of you have been stopping by and reading what we are covering these days. Time to return the favor!

I pulled this question out of one of our comments, posted by jasond76. He asked:

I agree about Johnson, actually. Although I honestly had to research him to become more familiar with what he could offer, I really think he could be a positive player for the Heat. Anyone Hollinger rates as a top 10 rookie around the all-star break is a great addition. With all of the interest Haslem is garnering, is there a chance we might trade Haslem for other needs (SF, a younger/healthier PG) and consider giving Johnson major minutes?

Hollinger rated Alex Johnson in the top 10 rookie class, huh? I didn't know that, very interesting.

I think we have to be realistic about something - Udonis Haslem has probably the most value of the Heat players that we could part with. Sure, you could argue that Jason Williams does, since he has a one year deal. But Haslem's age and affordable contract, coupled with his production and experience, make him an excellent candidate to be a complementary piece for a playoff team. The question is, as I believe I understand jasond76's suggestion, is can the Heat actually afford to part with him? On another "Open J" article, I actually posted that the Heat should trade UD.

So, my answer is yes.

The only question is, to whom? First things first - can Alexander Johnson push Haslem from the starting spot? Quite possibly. That isn't to say UD is not any good, just that Johnson has vast potential and it has gone quite untapped since his college days at FSU. He is explosive, athletic, and with those gifts comes confidence that he can perform at the pro level. He can rebound, he can score, and his long reach enable him to defend better and hurry his assignments and force them to shoot contested shots. UD gets better positioning, but that is something Johnson can work on and obtain with experience. Johnson has a solid midrange game, not quite as good as UD's, but Haslem was not polished by any means coming into training camp as an undrafted rookie with the Heat a few years back.

Yes, Haslem is expendable, and for that very reason he should be dealt. We Heat fans tend to overvalue him, but coupled with another asset, something tangible could be yielded in return.

Also, watch this Charlie Bell signing very carefully. If the Heat are able to retain him, this could be a signal that a move is imminent. On its own, this Bell signing has very good value as the Heat gain a shooter and scorer in Bell that could complement Wade's game and even afford the Heat to play Bell alongside Wade while giving Bell the point guard as the defensive assignment. And they could do so with confidence. This of course means that Jason Williams could be just a bit more expendable, but it would also mean that the Heat would have to be confident with Smush Parker as their starting PG.

The Johnson signing definitely makes Haslem a bit more expendable. Signing Bell could mean that we would be free to drop another asset into the pot to pull the trigger on a deal. We'll see if the gambit pays off.

Thanks again, jasond76 for the question. Keep 'em coming!

Alexander Johnson Fits in Miami

He's young and he is under appreciated. Most fans will not have heard of Alexander Johnson, unless they were Florida State basketball fans - like myself.

I had the privilege of watching Alexander Johnson play basketball at FSU while Leonard Hamilton was just starting up his program and right away I was impressed with his physical ability.

Johnson seems to be cut in that same mold as a Charles Barkely, a physical player with a strong power game and the ability to explode and surprise opponents. See for yourself:



Johnson has a long wingspan and can play on both ends of the floor. He is a gifted athlete, has good agility and quick feet and can get up off the floor very quickly - sometimes it can be somewhat surprising as he looks slower than he is. Just check that video above.

He can stick the jumper to about 18 feet, he has good form and a high release point and he can play physical down low in the block. He also has shown great passing ability and at FSU he was frequently used to set up plays at the top of the key.

Also while at FSU, Johnson often took on the tough, physical assignments and proved he was up to the task. In fact, it almost seemed as if he preferred it. He might have struggles against smaller, quicker players but only because of his positioning and understanding of defensive techniques needs some help when guarding players. However, he is a very strong rebounder on both ends of the floor due to his physical nature, his vertical leap (around 40") and his reach. In fact, some scouts and experts marked Johnson the 2nd most athletic big man in the draft behind Tyrus Thomas.

The Heat just got younger at PF and expanded their roster up to 18 players by signing Johnson. He also signed a high value contract for 2 years at 1.5M - this demonstrates the Heat are thinking more shrewdly about their situation. With Shaq and Wade eating up a bulk of the finances, the Heat have to be smarter with their spending which means they need to focus on younger talent that could be cheaper and fit their system while at the same time tolerating more risk on the court. Alexander Johnson just makes sense.

Further Reading:
Ex-FSU Star Signs with Miami

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Also, keep an eye on PJ Brown. Rumor has it he would like to retire after this season and he might be looking to do it in Miami where he would have a chance to win a title and finish up where he spent his better professional years.