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Monday, August 06, 2007

Could the Heat Trade for Jermaine O'neal?

Apparently, Jermaine O'neal wants out of Indy and a trip to LA. That's nice. But since we are speculating here, why not see if Miami could be a suitable option for the other O'neal?

The rumor is that the Lakers have been pushing for JLo, as I like to call him due to his incessant on-court whining, but have been only offering Andrew Bynum and Kwame Brown as integral parts of the deal. The Pacers want Odom, but the Lakers want to keep Lamar to integrate further into their triangle which is the crux of Phil Jackson's "genius" label, eventhough it comes from Tex Winters.

Can the Heat trump that deal? Possibly.

Jermaine O'neal is scheduled to make 19.7M, 21.3M and 22.9M over the next three years. That is pretty sizeable.

The Heat could counter with Jason Williams (8.9M) and Antoine Walker (8.5M) for a total of 17.4M.

This leaves the Heat about 2.3M short in the financial aspect of the deal. So, throw in Udonis Haslem (6.0M) and the Heat are roughly up 3.7M. The Pacers could counter with Jamaal Tinsley, who makes 6.3M this upcoming season: Heat would be -2.6M.

Now the Heat could counter with offering Dorell Wright (1.7M) or they could take one of the aforementioned players off the board (Udonis Haslem, or even Jason Williams or Antoine Walker) and instead use James Posey as a sign-and-trade to make the numbers stick.

The question remains, is this a more attractive offer for the Pacers than Bynum and Brown? It could be because they would be getting O'neal's contract off the books and getting solid value in return. Jason Williams would come off their books and free the Pacers up to spend roughly 8M more next season. They could also get Walker off the books via a buyout or ride it out one more season and get him off the books in 2008-2009. The Pacers would also get rid of Jamaal Tinsley's risky contract - he has 4 more years left (6.3M, 6.7M, 7.2M, and 7.5M) and with injury concerns.

For the Heat, it would be an interesting move that would generate some more buzz to counter the Boston trade for Kevin Garnett. The Heat would gain that legit third star they need to take pressure off of Shaq and Dwade and it might be enough to vault them back into championship contention immediately. The Heat would also gain a floor leader whose skill set would complement Wade and Shaq's much better - a strong defender who can handle the ball and move the offense. With Jermaine O'neal, the Heat wouldn't require Tinsley to score but he could stick the open shot when needed.

Ultimately, the Heat would give up:
Jason Williams
Antoine Walker
Udonis Haslem
Dorell Wright
and/or James Posey

and recieve from the Pacers in return:
Jermaine O'neal
Jamaal Tinsley

Of course, that is 4 or possibly 3 players that the Pacers would recieve in exchange for two and roster moves would have to be made to make room.

The real question is, why couldn't the Heat get involved in trade talks with the Pacers? Couldn't they offer just as much if not more than the Lakers? Would they be willing to do so? Would it cost the Heat too much down the road? The answer to that last question is not really. Sure, they would have three players with around a combined 55M payroll, but the contracts would last until Shaq's final season 2009-2010. Both O'neals would come off the books and Wade would have a player option in place should he choose to invoke it.

It's too much of a risk to not try and make that move. Especially as how much better the East has gotten this past offseason.

5 comments:

JasonD76 said...

While I personally would prefer not to include Dorell Wright, I don't think Indiana would be motivated to do this trade. Sure, I'd love it as a Heat fan, but I wouldn't do it if I were an Indy fan. Still, one can dream, right?

Unknown said...

Well, why would Indy deal him for Bynum and Brown?

JasonD76 said...

Well, for one, they're getting a 19 year old big man that's putting up 15+ per. Secondly, they're not helping out conference rivals. Thirdly, O'neal has expressed interest in going to LA.

JasonD76 said...

When I say PER, I mean the Hollinger stat that is a decent way of calculating a player's overall contribution, not points per night. Trust me though, I'd love to see O'neal come to Miami as well.

Unknown said...

I know about PER. I am not trying to diminish O'neal's stats, although I think he is a bit overrated but would be ideal on a team with legit superstars, but instead show that the Lakers aren't offering enough to get O'neal in a trade. If LA can lowball, why can't Miami?