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Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Free Agent Watch: Best Options for Miami Heat

With all the talk about landing big name free agents circulating in relation to the Miami Heat, I wanted to take a second and remind everyone that the likelihood of it happening is very very small.

The Heat have virtually no wiggle room due to big ticket items like Dwyane Wade (12.5M) and Shaq (20M) and are forced into finding more cost effective alternatives due to their financial constraints.

The Heat have a payroll for the upcoming season that is estimated to cost $64M for 9 players - the most attractive assets are Jason Williams and his 8.9M expiring deal and possibly James Posey's sign-and-trade potential as the Heat can offer him a better deal than his new team could and there is expected to be competition for his services. The Heat, realistically, cannot match offers from other teams to keep Posey (yet, as this article will show they really shouldn't anyway).

The rest:

Antoine Walker has 2 years at 8.5M with a team option in 2009-2010
Udonis Haslem has 3 more years at 6M rising to 7M in 2009-2010
Micheal Doleac is in his final year at 3.1M
Zo is in his final year at 2.7M but it is only speculated that he is returning
Dorell Wright is in his final year at 1.7M but Heat can match offers next season
Wayne Simien will make 997K with a team option for 1.8M next season

Now, owner Mickey Arison has stated he will pay luxury tax dollars for a player that is worth it - so that is the main reason for public speculation about the Heat acquiring another big name. Yet the reality is, there are teams with slightly more to offer and the chances for the Heat are not as good as some in the media might dare to portray.

Yet, there is plenty of hope left for the Heat to re-tool their lineup. In fact, the options that are out there can be much more enticing.

I am going to outline a couple of unrestricted free agent options that could immediately help this team get better and deepen its talent pool in the areas it needs help. What are those areas? Good question, and a great place to start.

Let's play GM:

Point Guard.

The Heat need point guard depth as Gary Payton is retiring (not official yet...but 99% chance he does not return with the Heat), Jason Williams has question marks over each knee and Chris Quinn is solid, but not proven enough to build with.

Options.

- Steve Blake. He is a hometown kid with a pass first mentality and his motor runs but never blows a gasket out there. He knows his limits and plays safe, smart basketball. He has pretty good handles, can penetrate and can stick the open three. Not going to offer too much defensively, but for the price would be a much more valuable alternative to Jason Williams. As such, would free up the Heat to deal Williams and his expiring contract.

- Jason Hart. Despite being 31, has a lot of minutes still in him, but just needs a place to play. A very good defender for his position, not a huge scorer but a solid passer and can shoot the open three - the only question is can he knock it down consistently? Can run an offense and do what is asked and for the price, could be another valuable alternative to Gary Payton - may only take the veteran minimum depending on the market.

- Brevin Knight. Probably the best defender at his position on the market, but concerns about his durability is what got him on the open market in the first place. Basically, he's fragile, but when he is healthy he is one of the better floor generals and playmakers at his position. Great assist man and offers low turnovers. Can't shoot to save his life, but can get to the rim and create. Not a scorer, but has his nights. Could be had for the veteran minimum and could start on the Heat because Wade will do most of the heavy lifting on offense and Knight could hold it down defensively.

- Jannero Pargo. Another rangy guard that has great quickness and athleticism, but needs a place to play. He can shoot the three and can run an offense; defensively he can get busy while bouncing in and out of lanes and has the physical tools to guard his man. May cost a little bit more because he has a perceived potential that could result in a higher ceiling of the guards available. Like Blake, may be looking for the entire MLE (mid-level exception worth about $5.6M).

Small Foward.

The Heat have another hole forming at small forward due to the free agent status of James Posey and the now-departed Jason Kapono. The Heat at least have Dorell Wright, a building piece in that spot, and can play Antoine Walker at the small forward position (where he started, incidentally, for the championship team in 2006) although it isn't recommended.

Options.


- Ime Udoka. Very good perimeter defender as well as solid shooter: he can hit the three, he can hit his free throws and he won't try to do too much on offense. An excellent candidate to replace James Posey and he will do so at a much cheaper price (made 744K last season). Starter caliber SF with excellent defense and spot up shooting as well as tough and physical and will battle for loose balls and rebounds. His age (turning 30) could price him down which makes him a bargain for the cash-strapped Heat. Only 3 years as a pro in the NBA which means, like Hart, has a lot of game left in his legs at this point.

- Jumaine Jones. Another tough perimeter defender that could lock down the SF position but has a little more experience scoring the ball with other teams. Actually younger than Udoka, but has more experience in the NBA. Just a very good and solid all around game, he also can replace Posey at a fraction of the cost - only made 744K last season as well.

- Devean George. This guy always seems like he has more potential, extremely gifted athlete and can defend at SF, PF and even SG. Has a nice shooting touch and can score the ball from time to time and will have his break out games as well. Has experience and has played with Shaq back in his Laker days. Might cost a bit more than Udoka and Jones, however, as he has had a more consistent NBA career. Opted out of a guaranteed $2M contract for next season, so not as much value especially considering his disappointing performance last season with the Mavs.

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Not only would these options answer questions for the Heat and address needs, they would also offer a strong package of complementary pieces that could build around Wade and Shaq for the next three years. Each player listed should be signed using the MLE and the only ones looking to use the entire MLE are Blake and possibly Pargo.

Signing these players also frees the Heat up to move other pieces and contracts that are on the books. For example, finding a replacement for Jason Williams allows the Heat to deal Williams; finding a replacement for James Posey allows the Heat to deal Pose. What this means is the Heat could sign-and-trade Posey, coupled with Williams' expiring contract, and get back a bigger piece to obtain that third scoring option they so badly need. This does not require the Heat to deal Udonis Haslem or Antoine Walker, which they also cold do provided they get back a PF in the deal to account for Haslem's loss - such a PF does not have to be an all-world talent, instead he just has to rebound and help spread the floor. It is debatable at this time if Simien could do this himself, although it remains a very good possibility.

The Heat don't have to rebuild, just reload. They can do this affordably given the options on the market but it would be advisable that they move quickly as teams are looking to make that quick deal in the beginning of the free agent period so that teams don't have a chance to sign-and-trade with their own free agents.

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