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Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Trade Shaq? Has Everyone Lost Their Mind?

Recently, Ira Winderman wondered aloud about the possibility. Thank God the man has some sense.

The thought, to be honest, is on everyone's mind. One of our members over at the forum asked if the Heat made a mistake in trading for Shaq, opting out of the potential of that 2003-2004 team which sported a young, athletic nucleus of Wade, Odom, Caron Butler, Rafer Alston, Udonis Haslem and Rasual Butler. The argument is tantalizing but as ridiculous as a voice mail from Alec Baldwin.

That team would have had some nice playoff runs and would have helped integrate Stan Van Gundy into the NBA coaching fabric as he would have proven to be one of the bright young strategists in this league.

Yet, make no mistake, they wouldn't have been favorites to win any title. They may not have even had enough to get by the Pistons.

As we reflect on a disappointing 2006-2007 season, a sad attempt at a title defense, we must keep in mind that for a team to be disappointing must mean there was some expectation in the first place.

The entire championship team returned this season, so there is little reason for excuse - even with the injuries. True, the Heat starting lineup basically never got a chance to develop consistency - over the last 2 years the starting 5 haven't been able to play a full 82 games together. That contrasts greatly to the Bulls and Pistons, who have been extremely lucky in not having any significant injuries over the last several years.

So, let's stop this nonsense about the Heat not being a good team anymore. If you project the same kind of injuries and obstacles on other teams in this league, let's see if they even make the playoffs.

Shaq is now the poster boy for what is wrong with the Heat. And there are 20 million reasons why that is the case yet the idea of trading Shaq away from the Heat would be to bleed out this franchise of its purpose. You cannot rebuild this team with Shaq on it; and you cannot rebuild it by trading him away. The Heat and Shaq are married to one another, like a symbiotic relationship the two need each other. For starters, with all the negative attention Shaq has garnered, his value has plummeted and you wouldn't get like for like. Plus, as good as Dwyane Wade is, the Heat would be making a mistake in thinking that they could build around him at this point and win a title. Just ask the Lakers about such "innovative" thinking.

Sure, this new NBA favors the perimeter offense - all the more reason not to invest in overvalued talent. The market, to break it down as an economist, is quite large when it comes to perimeter talent; yet it is a challenge to yield a decent post player.

Look at the teams left in this playoff race - Suns, Spurs, Jazz, Warriors, Pistons, Bulls, Cavaliers and Nets. Only the Spurs and Jazz have dominant post players, everyone else is running crazy with perimeter-oriented offenses. Now, that would seem to indicate that the paradigm has shifted but if we peel back and take a look, only the Rockets and Heat - of the teams eliminated - have dominant centers. The Rockets went 7 games - against the Jazz. The Heat? Well, they had a sub par performance not in just the playoffs but for the entire regular season and still had a decent shot at the title. Why?

Of course Shaq now is not the '93 model or even the '98 model or even the '04 model. But he still is the most dominant big man in the entire game and part of his skill set that is conducive to the game is his ability to pass the ball. In fact, Shaq has to be one of the better passers in this league. He had a decent playoff against the Bulls too, scoring points efficiently and effectively. Where Shaq needs to change things for the better is upstairs in the ol'noggin of his. His physical strength is very much there as his agility. Shaq cannot afford to get stupid fouls or even cannot play 40 minutes anymore, but for the 30+ he can play he can leave it all out on the court and play at a higher level than practically any other big man on any given night.

Really, why follow the trends? If the Heat try and do a makeover this offseason, it would prove nothing more than Miami living under a panic and that Riley is a tool with no strength of vision. And for a man who envisioned a parade down Biscayne on his arrival over ten years ago, that would be a fallacy.

Miami needs to retool, not rebuild. The Heat blasted the whole clip, time to reload. They will be forced into doing that, but you certainly don't rewrite the script. The Heat has plenty of reasons to believe they will be back at the top next season - and it starts with reason #32. Trading Shaq would be an even bigger mistake than not trading for him in the first place.

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