With or Without You: Part I

Shaq is waiting in the wings and ready to come back and make his re-debut this season, slated for January 15th. He has only played in 4 games this season, but he is the "Big Difference Maker" for the Heat, as he will help tilt the games into the Heat's favor.

At least, that is the basic understanding of Shaq's presence in the post. Analysts like how Shaq spaces the floor - he demands attention in the low post and constantly draws double teams. With Dwyane Wade's ability to create and penetrate, teams have to pick their poison when facing the Heat and their two-headed beast, like Dallas came to discover in last year's finals.

Yet, so far this season, there is little statistical evidence to supply this notion. But is the Big Yardstick's presence overstated? Sure, it is a small sample size, but here are the numbers:

With Shaq the Heat are 2-2 but without him they are 13-17.

There is a little theory though that I have been working on, as some of you know who read this blog, that free throw attempts (FTAs) is the secret to winning NBA games. The more FTAs you log, the more likely your victory is going to be.

There are few players in the NBA that demand the attention of the officials like Wade and Shaq. Wade is getting 10.7 FTAs per game this season; while Shaq is gaining 4.5 this season (in only 4 games), he received 8.0 FTAs per contest last season.

Coupled together, that is 18.7 FTAs a game between the two star players alone.

As a team, the Heat are getting 25.3 attempts at the charity stripe this season, but last season it was up to 28.2 per night.

That would indicate that Shaq's presence increases the number of FTAs for the Heat, but the evidence for this season concludes that Shaq does not. FTAS with Shaq so far this season, 25. FTAs without Shaq this season, 24.47.

Again, the sample size is so skewed (4 games with Shaq, 30 without) that it isn't a fair analysis. A look at last season's numbers and how they broke down would give us better data to forecast the numbers for this season - but I haven't completed that analysis yet (thus, the 'part I' in my title!).

Upon completion of that analysis, a more accurate picture can be obtained. Still, as it stands, the data indicates that the FTAs stay about the same with Shaq or without him. That is interesting because the winning % obviously increases with Shaq in the game, as one would expect. Stay tuned...

...and yes, U2 is my favorite band...