Heat face Pistons (and refs) next

Some of you out there will find fault with what I am about to write here. And that is fine - no one likes a cry-baby. Least of all before there is really anything to cry about.

But I fear this series with the Pistons. Not because I feel the Pistons are a better team, no. Not at all. They are a very good team with a solid cast but they do not have the depth they had last year nor are they even playing the level of team defense that they were last year. I fear this team because they benefit from the refs a little too much and that has been what has saved them all season long.

The Heat were 1-2 against the Pistons this season. And they averaged 79.3 points per game in those contests. That was 22 points less than their 101.5 regular season average.

Of course, the Pistons style of play is a very physical and grinding half-court oriented game. Much like the Heat teams of the late 90's which used similar tactics against their twin, those storied Knicks of that same era. Those games are always ugly and slow paced, filled with the incessant blowing of a whistle. Those games also always seem to favor the attacker. Just like in a fight, the one who reacts gets called, rarely the instigator.

And such it is with the Pistons. They will push you, tug you, set moving screens and will clutch and grab and frustrate you. And all you will do is get frustrated and react. Then the refs will hit you with fouls. And that is how the Pistons grind you down.

The Heat averaged 23.3 personal fouls in this series and shot 26.7 free throws in this series. During the season, the Heat averaged 22.1 and 30.1 in both those categories, respectively, against the rest of the league. That is one more foul and about 4 less free throws. The Pistons, in this series over the course of the regular season, averaged 21.3 and 25.3. That is 2 less fouls than the Heat and 1 less free throw.

Doesn't seem like staggering differences, but the scoring also plummeted 22 points. How? Wade shot .463 against the Pistons but Shaq shot just .447 against them. It would seem that the key is Shaq ability to be more efficient - at least as much as Shaq and his regular season .601 would indicate.

You have to give some credit to the Pistons' defense. Surely. But what exactly are they doing to limit Shaq? And how is it that almost every statistical category is down for the Heat when they play the Pistons?

Keep your eyes on the men with the whistles. I feel Jeff Van Gundy was right in part and this series should be watched very closely. The Heat's task just got a whole lot harder.