Wiggling free from the Nets

The Heat did escape Game 3 in NJ with a win. It only took two overtimes, and some missed shots, but the Heat survived. And sometimes, that is enough for the playoffs. It is the first team to 16 wins, not the team to the sexiest 16 wins.

And as it stands, the Heat are only 13 away from that trophy.

But, how was this game more competitive than the previous ones? A series in which the first two games could have been characterized as blowouts?

If we break down some very basic - and quite boring - stats than the picture becomes clearer. So, what exactly saved this game for the Heat?

3 point assasination
The Heat continued to shoot very well from beyond the 3 point line, but did this save them in Game 3? The Heat shot 45% (10-22) while the Nets shot 13% (3-23). There is definetly an advantage there, but the difference is only +7 points (the Heat won by +3). Let's look elsewhere...

Free Throws not cheap
How about free throws? The Heat shot 57% (22-38) from the charity stripe while the Nets - not faring much better - shot 66% (18-27). The Heat made 4 more free throws, again, +4 (along with the threes = +10). That should have been enough for the Heat to win in regulation. For some reason, it wasn't.

More telling is the rebounding. Remarkably, we actually won a game in which we were outrebounded (57-51, Nets). And that, my red-outfitted friends, is what starts to tell this story...

So, we made more 3's and shot more FTs but could only win by 3 after double OT. Why?
Field goal attempts: the Nets shot 107 shots to our 83. That is +24! If the Nets are able to just make 5 of those 24 FGA's, then we are tied up (remember, with the extra threes and free throws, the Heat were +10 in scoring). And that is not calling for a very efficient shooting percentage for a Nets team that was among the lowest in the NBA in FG% (42%).

The more important question is, how did the Nets put up so many shots? Because truthfully, missing all those shots wasn't surprising to me - getting the shots was. Especially when you consider that our FG% dropped as the game went on.

But this may be a clue - we had 18 turnovers to their 14. Not that big of a difference, and considering that we were only outrebounded by 6 there doesnt seem to be much here.

There is a more telling stat, however: offensive rebounds. The Nets had 18; the Heat had only 9. That is +9 - all of which are second chance opportunities. Figure in the 4 more TO's and that puts them at +13 in terms of possession. That is possibly +13 more shots (and we already know they were +24).

The diagnosis? The Heat need to do a better job rebounding and boxing out on the offensive glass and take better care of the ball. There were a lot of careless passes that lead to turnovers and fast breaks. Wade is not innocent in this, he had 9 TO's.

It seems that the Heat almost turned this game over as well. Just wiggling free while the Nets missed shot after shot down the stretch.