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Thursday, December 15, 2005

It's All in the Family: Why Stan Van Gundy stepped down

I have been reserving this write up for a couple of reasons - I wanted to see how things played out and what the consequences would be. Having done that, I think it is fair to say that the press conference announcing why Stan Van Gundy stepped down was legit. The reasons why Stan Van Gundy stepped down, that his personal life was calling to him, are definetly true. And strangely, this is not without precedent - even with the Van Gundy family.

But the question remains, why now? Why would a man who has worked tirelessly and endlessly to reach the pinnacle of his profession just decide to call it quits?

Stan Van Gundy has been an assistant to Pat Riley for 11 years - but that only begins to tell the story. His brother, Jeff, another long time Riley assistant was able to parlay his assistantship into a head coaching gig once Riley left and even matched up against his mentor in those famous Knick/Heat rivalries. With all the success that Jeff Van Gundy was able to achieve as a coaches' coach, it seems the reason why he left may have also been foreshadowing what his brother would eventually face.

Jeff Van Gundy quit as head coach very abruptly. His reasons? As coach, he claimed, he was losing his focus. "I didn't feel my focus was at its best. I didn't want to hurt our team. I certainly don't regret the effort I put forth. I just think it's time to step back and let the team move on."

But what is even more telling is this, what Jeff Van Gundy said next, "I'm going to step back and exhale for the first time in 13 years. When I told my daughter today, she said: 'Does this mean you get to have lunch with me?' So that's cool."

Sound familiar?

Just like when his brother Jeff stepped down in NY, Stan has been mulling this decision since the offseason. Even Stan himself said that in the offseason, everything is fine since he got to see his family more regularly. Remarkably, the sound bite Stan Van Gundy gave was eerily similar to what his brother said just a few years before, "I mean, it's been like that for my kids' entire lives. I've got a 14-year-old daughter and it started to hit me when I started thinking about her birthday, which was last month. I've got four more years left with her. Four. And then she'll be off to college and I'm just not willing to sacrifice any more of those four more years."

Is family simply the reason? It seems improbable that two brothers, raised by a basketball coaching father, would be unaware of the impact their chosen profession would have on their lives. Perhaps they weren't totally conscious of the impact, but nonetheless, they had an idea. Their amibitions pushed them onwards towards their rewards of a head coaching position for a professional basketball franchise. And the brothers Van Gundy were damned good at what they did.

The problem wasn't with themselves or their personal lives, it was with the people they were working worth. Most specifically, the players.

When Jeff Van Gundy stepped down, he tried to take all the blame - that the team underperforming was his fault. That somehow, he was getting frantic and losing his focus. He was trying to save face for the Knicks, who had a lousy team put together with a generally lousy attitude. Perhaps the players started to tune Jeff Van Gundy out.

Dr. Jack Ramsay, one time Heat commentator and Hall of Fame coach, had this to say about Jeff Van Gundy's sudden resignation:

"The players hold Van Gundy in high regard. In fact, I've never heard one of his players criticize him -- they've always spoken very highly of him. I'm not sure there isn't more to this than just the day-to-day toll that affects every coach. Jeff is a perfectionist and I don't think he'd resign unless there was some additional pressure. He may have felt he wasn't getting the support or cooperation from management."

It was the pressure of the people he was working with that forced Jeff Van Gundy out. Perhaps he felt his methods were not being taken seriously enough and that he was being tuned out somehow. Seeing as Jeff Van Gundy is a perfectionist, it is not surprising that something like that would take a toll personally on him and force him into his ultimate decision.

There is evidence that supports a similar scenario for Stan, too. Although, it wouldn't be management but the players themselves that may have been putting the pressure on Stan Van Gundy. All this added pressure, the feeling of not being respected or listened to, made him think about the apparent sacrifice he was making at the expense of his family - for the sake of his career, which was starting to turn more and more sour for him.

The evidence is as plain as that trademark Shaq sheepish grin. It was the Diesel who has been quoted as saying this in a recent article:

"The only adjustment that the guys are going to make is they're going to really, really listen now, because of his resume. I've been in this situation before, where you do a lot of stuff and then they bring (in) somebody who knows what he's talking about and everybody listens. It's a different locker room. Guys are listening. Nobody really..."

Guys are going to listen now. Now? I guess it is no coincendence that as soon as Riley took over, Gary Payton's production has stepped up. The same Gary Payton who was only 'professionally' disagreeing with Stan Van Gundy a month back about offensive philosophy.

That Stan Van Gundy decided to step down due to personal reasons should not be in doubt. As always, Van Gundy kept his views honest and made them public without any fear whatsoever. As a coach, he was no different. But the blame must be cast on the veteran leadership of this team. If in fact they had tuned Stan Van Gundy out to the point that it forced him to retire (since Stan saw that he wasn't reaching the players and it was his duty to do so) then shame on them. They certainly weren't endorsing him with their silence.

But they should also know, that you get what you wish for. And the vengeance of Pat Riley will not be mild. This team has many problems that need to be cleared up and Van Gundy is absolved of any and all blame. In fact, Riley has made it clear that no quarter will be taken for players who denounce or speak out in any way against Stan.

And for the first time in a long time, it seems Pat Riley is truly incensed. If these players and this team are truly desiring a championship, there will be hell to pay. Riley will play the devil himself.

Meanwhile, quietly in the background, Stan Van Gundy will sit and watch. Ever loyal to his family. Ever loyal to his mentor. Ever loyal to this organization. It truly was Riley's wish to have Stan steward this ship onto land and down Biscayne in the form of a victory parade.

But this time, he will have to do it himself. The players know not what has befallen them.

Monday, December 12, 2005

The Unthinkable: Pat Riley is back

Pat Riley is returning as Heat head coach. That's is right, the team president is demoting himself because Stan Van Gundy is stepping down - voluntarily. Well, that is the official word from SVG, citing "family" as his reason for giving the reigns back to Riley. No official word yet as to whether or not Stan considers the Heat family.

But this demonstrates the unthinkable. I guess I have seen it all. I never expected Pat Riley to return to this team and chalked it up to media speculation - and aything less than that is not warranted. Sure, Riley is a lifer and loves to coach and has always fought the itch to get back into it. He was recently interviewed for the Lakers head coaching spot this past summer. And for any writer or member of any media to say 'I told you so' is a bunch of bologna. Everyone thought about the possibility, but no one knew it was going to happen. No one.

Now, the question remains, will Riley be able to get this team to perform to its full capacity? There is no doubting Pat Riley's credibility or track record, just whether or not he is the right coach for this team. It seems it is time to find out.

Stan Van Gundy has done an excellent job managing the ship while Riley was away. Taking two very different teams deep into the playoffs in his first two seasons as head coach is not something that should be overlooked. The official reasons as to why SVG is stepping down will be made known today around 11:00 pm at a press conference. The media frenzy will shortly resume from that point on. We will all lay witness to what follows - and although many will claim to know what is going on, no one will truly know what is about to happen.

Monday, November 28, 2005

The Days of Old?

The New York Knicks roll into town tonight to face the struggling Miami Heat. And Heat fans, as well as Knick fans - most of whom are 'trapped' in South Florida these days - can't help but think about the old days of those Heat and Knicks rivlaries. The ones that left us with images of flying elbows and stifling, physical defenses. Of Jeff Van Gundy clinging to Alonzo's ankle - who now plays for the other Van Gundy. Or Thunder Dan sticking the three from downtown Miami. Or Allan Houston tipping in a game winner with a fraction of a second left to break everyone's heart in South Florida.

Now Larry Brown has taken over in New York City. The last time Brown and the Heat met was in the Eastern Conference Finals last season. You may remember, there were diatribes exchanged in the media from Stan Van Gundy and Brown. It only heightened the games as both went back in forth speculating about the tactics of the other team's coach. As fans, we can only hope that this continues and helps to renew the rivalry of these two franchises - even though the only player left from those days is Alonzo Mourning.

But Van Gundy has come to the defense of Larry Brown recently, questioning Stephon Marbury's dissatisfaction with the new system that is being implemented in New York. So, perhaps the poison from this rivalry is gone forever. Not to mention the key ingredient, Pat Riley, is up in the sky boxes these days and far from view of the fans and the media.

To boot, the two teams are no longer in the same division, but instead head up seperate divisions since the realignment. One can only hope that something sets off this rivalry of old, but at the same time we are reminded that these two teams are so far apart that there is no need for a rivalry either.

Too bad, as fans, we always look for these kinds of matchups. Instead, we will have to look to Indiana or Detroit for this kind of heated exchange. But who knows, maybe in a few years, we will see, once again, a Heat and Knicks rivalry.

Monday, November 21, 2005

Heat still adjusting

Here we are 10 games into the season. A loss to the Raptors - previously the team with the worst record in the NBA - might send some into shock. Or make the bandwagon sputter a little bit.

Truth be told, this is a good thing for the Heat.

Coming into yesterday's game, the Heat had won 4 straight and just beat Philadelphia at home. They moved into first place atop the Southeastern division at 6-3. Things were looking good. Too good. No Shaq? No problem. JWill goes down with a knee bruise? Oh, we'll just make a minor change to the roster - welcome aboard Mr. Fitch, see you around Mr. Walsh - and things will be fine.

Not quite.

30 points in the 2nd quarter for the Raptors? 40 more in the 4th quarter?

The Heat are far from fine - and this is good. Dwyane Wade is playing like he is supposed to - trying to carry the load for the missing Diesel. He also seems to have enough humility to know what Kobe did not, that he cannot carry this team deep into the playoffs without the Big Sprain.

The supporting cast of this Heat team, the Paytons and Walkers of the bunch in particular, know this as well. So everyone is on the same page - win as much as you can right now and even still expect to win, but realize that this team is far from complete at this point. From the roster to the play on the court, there are still some elements missing.

Losing to the Raptors was good in that it will grant the Heat the proper perspective it needs to remain focused on its goal. They need Shaq. They need Jason Williams. And they need to listen more closely to Stan Van Gundy and the rest of the coaching staff. This team isn't ready.

At least, not yet.

Friday, November 18, 2005

Flame Head Coach Jeff Malone on NBATV


This was my first time hearing Coach Malone speaking to NBA TV. Jeff Malone still sounds like the veteran player on the bench who gives his all, but he has the ability to communicate the essential messages that a head coach needs to send to a young player in need of direction. He has a calming and supportive tone in his voice and an instructive ability to go along with it.

When people ask why young players should be in the D-League over playng abroad for more money, you can point to Jeff Malone as one of those folks who has been to the mountain, climbed to the peak, and made it back down to lead those daring enough back up again.

The Flame and Malone are joining for their first year together, and even if they lose every single game, every player knows they will have a good man leading them out every game with an keen instinct for the game and the abilities to share that instinct with those willing to learn.

I know Malone wants to win, but with the coaching abilities he has, his main problem may be keeping talent at the D-League level long enough to form the chemistry and plain old feel for the game that team units form in the minor leagues of baseball and hockey. I'm sure Jeff won't be too upset to see some of his Flame become this year's big D-League surprise. Hopefully it will be one of our Baby HEAT players.

Fitch signs with Heat, Walsh waived

In an effort to cut down on the W's on the roster, the Heat signed Gerald Fitch - the former Kentucky PG - and waived Matt Walsh, another SEC grown player. Fitch is expected to give the Heat some more depth at guard while Jason Williams recovers from a bruised knee which he suffered against Chris Andersen of the NOK Hornets.

Fitch, 6'3" 188, harvested a 39.6 career 3pt% while at Kentucky. He was first team all-SEC in his senior season in 2003-2004 and finished his career as UK's 22nd all time points scorer. Seen as an undersized 2 guard that can defend and stick the three. He saw some time with the Heat in training camp and impressed coaches, but there just wasn't room at the time for Fitch to stick with the team.

Now, with Williams' injury, Fitch's skills are more needed than Walsh's, who doesn't seem to have the ball-handling skills to play point guard or even shooting guard at this point. This also leaves Walsh's future in doubt, at least with the Heat. Walsh signed a guranteed deal with the Heat to make the roster for the season. Will he return? It may depend on how well Fitch plays.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Don't believe the hype

Media turns up heat on the Heat

The Heat win a game against the New Jersey Nets the other night, in Miami while faced with key injuries, and all the media could talk about was Walker vs. Williams. Oh, and Gary vs. Stan Van Gundy.

It is no secret that many pundits covering the NBA and looking at the Miami Heat have questioned the moves Pat Riley and Randy Pfund have put together for the upcoming season. Well, most of these critics fail to even cite Randy Pfund as a part of this organization, forgetting that Riley is the president while Pfund is de facto the GM. But that is besides the point - accuracy is not stressed.

The major concern has been about chemistry, or the meshing of personalities such as Walker, Williams, and Payton on this team with Shaq and Wade. Also of intrigue is the Riley/Stan Van Gundy relationship and whether or not Riley is trying to sharpen an axe to relieve SVG of his coaching duties.

Look - this is what the media does. They sensationalize in order to provoke discussion. We here at Miami Heatwave consider ourselves fans, but enlightened ones at that. There is no conspiracy here for Riley to take over the head coaching duties while creating a well-crafted bomb just to demote himself. But the intrigue and the speculation offers too much and proves too tantalizing.

So it spins and spins, continuously out of control.

The Miami Heat must understand that this isn't about them. This isn't about their team. This is about a few members of the national media elbowing for attention. They have nothing else to focus on other than themselves, instead of letting the story tell itself. They are not reporters, but narrators.

This became most apparent to me while away from the internet (and this beloved site) and having to get my Heat fix through the straw of ESPN. The national ignorance of this team was all too evident.

What I saw prompted me to make a phone call to my brother to ask what was going on. ESPN kept showing a 'highlight' of Walker barking at Williams for apparently not cutting through the paint to relieve Walker of the impending double team. Walker turns it over, Nets fast break, Williams plays phantom defense and it looks bad. On the next possession, when Walker gets a chance, he starts barking at Williams - on his own free throw attempts. The Heat ended up getting a delay of game tech, too.

It is a well-known fact that guys don't get along all the time. Especially millionaires who disagree about how they are going to do things. And even more so when you factor in the fact that this was a home game against a tough Eastern opponent who are looking to measure up against the elite Heat. This is a reality in the NBA and even for the Miami Heat. In '03-'04, Rafer Alston and Caron Butler almost came to blows - and that team was supposed to have the chemistry on par with the cast of "Friends". Even last season's team that won 59 games sputtered at times, with Shaq suggesting that his teammates (EJ and DJ) were playing soft and needed to start hitting their 3's.

But Shaq is no stranger to this situation: Shaq and Kobe had their spats, but still managed to somehow win a couple of championships.

And don't even get me started about Gary Payton's comments about his own offensive philosophy. Stan Van Gundy is the coach, GP knows that. The Heat also know that the Glove is outspoken. Always has been. SVG is the kind of personality that will make light of it and move on.

But not the national media - that seems wont to see this team fail. We like underdogs, not empires. We like to see things started from scratch, not bought and paid for. This is all understandable, but also keep in mind that this is all hype. In fact, this can be easily illustrated by the fact that ESPN was running this supposed Heat 'collapse' story on the eve of their next NBA telecast - on Wed. November 9th which featured the Heat vs. the Pacers.

Nothing sells like controversy. Nothing titillates like drama.

So like Flavor Flav and Chuck D once told us, 'don't believe the hype'. As Heat fans, we got to look past the smoke and see the fire. This team will have its struggles - the media will try and blow them all out of proportion.

Don't believe the hype.

Let this team grow, first.

Saturday, November 05, 2005

Sprewell DENIED

The internet rumor, started by Probasketballnews.com, of Latrell Sprewell signing with the Miami Heat has been 'vehemently' denied by Heat front office personnel. Both the Miami Herald and the Sun-Sentinel have reported this as well.

So it looks like Spree's family will continue to starve and the Heat are not feeling the least bit charitable.

Good.

Because signing Sprewell would have been a mistake basketball-wise and would have certainly made for an even more volatile situation in the clubhouse. In the meantime, the injury to Shaq may have squashed any possibility of this happening because now the Heat need Michael Doleac more than ever, in order to backup Zo - once Doleac makes it back from a preseason injury. In the meantime, Heat fans will get a good look at Earl Barron - the summer league wonder that impressed the Heat brass with his interior toughness and scoring.

The Heat face the Milwaukee Bucks tonight at 8:00pm on Sun Sports. You can also follow the game over at the Miami Heatzone in our Gameday forum.

Friday, November 04, 2005

5 with the Florida Flame


The Florida Flame enter their first season as the destination for Baby HEAT players. The team, which plays its games at the Germain Arena in Estero, Florida, outside of Fort Myers, Florida, has the right to host HEAT players who have less than 2 years of experience. The Flame will also host players from the Orlando Magic, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Boston Celtics, all under the loving control of first year Flame Head Coach Jeff Malone.

Earlier this Friday afternoon, Mr. Tim Becwar, of the Florida Flame, was kind enough to join MiamiHeatWave.com in a Flame Q&A session.

1. What makes the Flame different from previous SWFLA Basketball teams?

"This is the best [basketball] talent outside of the NBA."


2. What have the Flame been up to in the community?
The NBA, WNBA, NBDL, and the Florida Flame all back the "Read to Achieve" literacy initiative and hope to aid local charities in Southwest Florida. We are locally owned and operated.


3. The Germain Arena is a great place for almost any event, but will Flame games be affordable?
Games will be affordable to attend. Tickets will start at $9 a game for an End Zone Bowl seat.


4. What will the games feel like to attend?
Games will be family-friendly, entertaining, and a great value. All within an easy and familiar drive from anywhere in Southwest Florida.


5. Where can fans tune into to follow the Flame on the road or those times they cannot make it out to Germain Arena?
At this time we are working on a radio package, we hope to announce it soon, but we cannot at this time.

Shaq update: Miss 2 to 4 weeks

The Miami Herald's Barry Jackson is reporting that Shaq's MRI revealed no damage but did show the center suffered a sprained ankle. He will be missing anywhere from 6 to 13 games.

For the Herald article, click on this link.

For discussion, go to Miami Heatzone. For example, do you think it was a dirty ploy by Ron Artest?

Keeping Pace

The Heat lost to the Pacers, the final score lit up on the scoreboard was 105-102. But why do I feel pretty good after this loss? Hmm...let's see...

The Heat shot 3-16 from 3 point range or 18%. The Heat are not going to be a great three point shooting team, but no team in the NBA is that abyssmal...

James Posey, the team's starting SF and probably best perimeter defender, was injured as was Shandon Anderson and Micheal Doleac...

17 turnovers...

Fought their way back from a 14 point deficit...

The Pacers shot 48% from the field. That is not likely to happen very often with this team's defense...

Jason Williams was 1-8 from the field and couldn't get off the bench at the end of the game which won't be happening again...

The Heat, together for little over a whole month, went up against a team that has been together for the better part of 3 seasons...who is also playing with a huge chip on their shoulder AND is one of the more talented teams in the East...

Shaq twisted his ankle and didn't return for the final 6 minutes of the game...

So, basically, not a whole lot went right for the Heat, who struggled early on in the game - even missing layups - as they were just incohesive overall. They had their biggest star in Shaq go down, played terribly at some points and still had a chance to go into OT with a rimmed-out Dwyane Wade three point shot.

If I was the Pacers, I would be very scared. Because the biggest difference between the Heat's win against the Grizzlies and their loss to the Pacers is execution. Against a tough team like Memphis, the Heat can rely on their natural talent to steal a game. But against a playoff-hardened contender like Indiana, you must execute. They didn't, and they lost. Barely.

But once the Heat develop into a team and learn how to play with one another - no more misplaced passes to Shaq in the post, no overdribbling from Walker and better shot selection and comfort on the floor - this team is going to be frighteningly good. We saw how the Glove and Shaq picked apart the Pacer's interior defense. Speaking of, Gary said it best, he said that right now this team is thinking too much and not just playing the game. We saw excellent ball movement and how quickly the Heat broke down full court presses and moved the ball down court with deft passing - so we know good things are coming. It will take about 10-15 games.

On a side note, we also had to put up with a terrible announcing team in Reggie "Homer" Miller (or was that Cheryl? Couldn't tell the difference), Steve "I love the Spurs" Kerr and Marv "I bite women, but love the Knicks" Albert.

So yeah, it was a frustrating home debut for the players and for the fans. But let's have a laugh, because in truth, this team is only going to get better. And the Pacers and Pistons should be scared.

Thursday, November 03, 2005

Sprewell Next?

There is a rumor that has seemed to have 'grown legs' that Latrell Sprewell is going to sign with the Miami Heat. Currently, Sprewell is a free agent and talks with Miami seem to have surfaced a couple of weeks ago as his agent told the Miami Heat that Sprewell was interested and available.

Looks like his family maybe starving after all.

What is also giving this rumor some substance is that the Heat are looking to move Doleac and reports have surfaced that it could be for just a 2nd round draft pick for the upcoming draft. Although that may seem to be well under value, making a move for Doleac for a non-player commodity makes sense in the event that the Heat are going to sign Sprewell.

The fact remains that the Heat do not have a backup SG for Dwyane Wade, or at least not a traditional one. Sprewell would provide just that and most likely would sign for the veteran minimum contract with that understanding of his role. Stay tuned...discuss further on the Miami Heatzone message boards.

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Let the SF Controversy BEGIN!

Opening night for the Heat was started on the road as the Grizzlies proved to be gracious hosts. They put up a good fight, but eventually bowed to the talent-rich Heat.

But this latest model of the Miami Heat was not as polished as it should have been. There were still a few dents and scratches, but nonetheless, a win on opening night against a possible playoff team is always a good way to start things off. Even Stan Van Gundy, always the most cynical - as such is the position of a head coach - couldn't find a reason to complain. A question was asked about Antoine Walker's shot selection; Van Gundy flashed a smile and quipped that all shots are good when they are going in.

In all seriousness, the Heat is faced with a nice little dilemma. James Posey is going to be out for a few games with a sprained thumb, possibly as much as a few weeks. Scrambling for a solution, SVG started 'Toine at the 3 tonight - betting on more offense. The pundits have all stated that Walker would be better coming off the bench, and even at power forward, his natural position. Well, tonight - if only for one night - Walker proved them wrong.

He set a franchise record for most rebounds on opening night, grabbing 16 and beating Clarence Weatherspoon's old record of 15 (set back on opening night in '99). Walker did more than that though, he was vital to this team's success tonight. He played with great tenacity and energy - for 41 minutes, hit some key three point shots (where he was 4-7), and was overall efficient from the field (10-17) with 4 assists to only 1 turnover.

The key tonight was Walker's ability to create fastbreaks. Not since Lamar Odom, or even Jamal Mashburn, have the Heat had a player at SF that could grab a rebound and push out a fast break. Walker did just that tonight and offers that ability in the future for the Heat.

So tonight, after an ugly but impressive win, the Heat start off the season right. And everyone will start scratching their heads and wondering whether or not Antoine Walker just may be better suited for starting at SF for this team.

Let the controversy begin.

Running down a Dream: Miami Heat 2005-2006 Preview

Well, here it is, fresh out of the box with that new car smell. Yep, that is right, the Miami Heatwave Miami Heat 2k5-2k6 season preview. We must warn you, this season is going to be one of the most exciting in Heat history. So, be prepared and read on with full attention. There will be a test at the end and Pat Riley is going to conduct it himself.

Ok, that was a trick. So relax, and read on as the Heat get it on tonight and open the new season with the hopes of chasing down a title.

Season Review

Last year, the Heat lost to the Pistons in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals - at home in Miami. Banged up, the Heat could not stave off the Piston's attack as Detroit proved to be more resilient - and healthier - than the Heat and snatched back the Eastern crown from the upstarts.

The Heat were 59-23 last season, scoring 101.5 points per game and giving up 95. Despite the success, Riley was not content to stand pat (yes, pun intended) and allow the sourness to set in and right itself. Instead, he opted to roll the dice and make a big trade - the biggest in NBA history - that netted Jason Williams, James Posey and Antoine Walker as the main pieces.

But that was only part of a very busy offseason. Gary Payton and Jason Kapono signed on to round out the roster and help push the Heat closer towards a championship. Impressed with the play of Earl Barron in the Summer League, the Heat signed the ex-Memphis center who until recently was playing in Turkey. The Heat continued to add young talent to the roster with Matt Walsh, an undrafted guard from UF - yes, another Gator - being signed as well as the Heat's top pick Wayne Simien. After one of the most anticipated reunions in Heat history, Alonzo Mourning decided to stick around for another year and took the veteran minimum to play again for the Heat as did Shandon Anderson. Most impressive may have been what seemed to kick off the offseason - the re-signing of Shaq and Udonis Haslem. Both players took less money, much less, just to stay in Miami and continue to play for the Heat, proving to be both gracious to the Heat as well as serious about taking this team to a championship level.

Now with the pieces in place, let's take a look at each player and analyze what we can expect.

Player Preview Capsules

Starters

Jason Williams: He took 9.1 shots per game (13.2 per 40 minutes) last season and used 20.0 possessions per 40 minutes last season. His PER rating last season was 15.48 (26th among point guards). Williams had an effective field goal percentage (or eFG%, which adjusts for the value of 3-pointers) of 49.6% last season with the Memphis Grizzlies, which is below average. His true shooting percentage (takes into account the adjusted value of 3-pointers and free throws) was 52.2%, slightly above league average. He shot a poor 32% from 3-point range, but 50.6% from inside the arc. It's puzzling that more than half the shots he took last season were 3-pointers, even though he's an efficient shooter inside the arc and a poor shooter behind the arc. Williams' offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) was 107, as was his defensive rating. The offensive rating was slightly above average, but his defensive rating was slightly below average (the league rating for both stats was 106).

Williams' free throw percentage was an above average 79.2%, though he only took 2 free throws per 40 minutes. He had a good assists to bad pass ratio of 4.4 last season while averaging 8.1 assists per 40 minutes. Williams committed turnovers 10.7% of the time. 69% of his turnovers last season were due to his passing, while only 25% of his turnovers were a result of his ballhandling. The only Grizzlies players who shot significantly better with Williams on the court last season with consistent playing time together were Shane Battier and Brian Cardinal. Battier shot 47% with Spiderman on the court compared to 44% overall, while Cardinal shot 39% with Williams on the floor compared to 37% overall (Cardinal was still a bad player even with Williams on the court, just not as bad as usual). However, Stromile Swift actually shot 40% with him on the court compared to 45% overall.

Expectations: Williams' assists and usage rate should go down with Dwyane Wade playing with him in the backcourt. Don't expect him to penetrate too often, considering he got to the line at such a low rate last season. The team will certainly be running more fast breaks with Williams in the lineup, meaning less time for Shaq to get down the floor. This means Shaq's role at times will be simply rebounding the ball and making the outlet pass.

It's not a guarantee, but a possibility that his eFG% and true shooting percentage will go up because of the open looks created by Shaq forcing double teams and Wade driving to the lane and drawing defenders. The fact that the coaching staff has been working on his shot and trying to get him to stop shooting off-balance for the past 2 months certainly helps. His shooting won't improve the way Damon Jones' did last season, but 43% from the field and 35% behind the arc isn't out of the question. Spiderman's shots should slightly decrease to about 11-12 per 40 minutes (in other words, to 8-9 shots per game, assuming he gets 28 MPG). However, he needs to cut down his 3's in order to have a successful year shooting-wise next season. Spiderman's defense will be an upgrade to DJ's because he moves around the court so much on offense. This means the opposing point guard will have less energy to expend running the offense when Williams is playing on the defensive end. His PER should rise, and he will be an upgrade to DJ in virtually every area except shooting.

Dwyane Wade: He took 17.7 shots per 40 minutes last season and had a PER of 23.17, second among shooting guards. Wade produced 109 points per 100 possessions and allowd 103 points per 100 possessions, both above average numbers. He used 29.0 possessions per 40 minutes and stole the ball 1.6 times per 40 minutes. Wade even had 1.02 blocks per foul last season, an excellent number for a shooting guard. His eFG% last season of 48.3% was below average, but that was because he only took 45 threes all year (making only 13 of them). His true shooting percentage of 56.1% was well above average since he averaged 12.3 free throws per 48 minutes (10.3 per 40 minutes). Wade shot 76.6% from the line last season, around league average. He also averaged 6.5 rebounds per 40 minutes, excellent for a shooting guard.

Wade averaged 7 assists per 40 minutes last season despite a below average 3.7 assists to bad pass ratio. 41% of his 4.3 turnovers per 40 minutes were a result of his ballhandling, an area he needs to improve in next season. More comforting is the fact that only 45% of his turnovers were caused by bad passes. He also made the NBA All-Defensive 2nd Team last season. His impact wasn't so much that he made the teammates around him better - only Rasual Butler and Christian Laettner shot significantly better with Wade on the court (Butler shot 43% with Wade compared to 40% overall; Laettner shot 60% with Wade compared to 58% overall). His impact was that he shot well close up and got to the line at a strong rate.

Expectations: His 3point shooting most likely improved this offseason, though it remains to be seen how he utilizes it. Wade's summer training sessions with Tim Grover (strength coach to Michael Jordan) have improved his strength and subsequently his ability to take hits while allowing him to maintain his athleticism and explosiveness. This means he has a less likely chance of injuring himself during the season or during the playoffs, like he did in last year's Eastern Conference Finals against the Detroit Pistons.

Wade will get to the line at a similar rate to last season with his penetration. His usage rate and shots should stay about the same, as should his PER. If his 3point shooting improves greatly, his eFG% and true shooting percentage will improve as well to about 52 and 60%, respectively.

Wade's ballhandling and decision-making will improve this season with the help of an additional ballhandler in Williams to help him out. Gone will be the days when Wade was forced to expend energy bringing the ball up the court because Damon Jones struggled to do so. He should make either the 1st or 2nd All-Defense Team next season and cement his place as one of the top 3 shooting guards in the NBA.

James Posey: He had an absolutely horrible season last season because of nagging foot problems which caused him to miss 32 games. He had a PER of 10.48 (50th among small forwards) and averaged 10.3 shots per 40 minutes. Posey only used 15 possessions per 40 minutes. He shot 31% behind the arc and had an eFG% of 43.4%. Posey's true shooting percentage was a dismal 50%. He produced only 100 points per 100 possessions, though his defensive rating was an above average 103. Posey did average 1.4 steals per 40 minutes, but that was down from a career 1.8 steals per 40 minutes. He averaged 6.4 rebounds per 40 minutes, but only got to the foul line 3.3 times per 40 minutes.

Posey's 2003-04 numbers were much better. He had a PER of 18.8 and averaged 12.6 shots per 40 minutes. He used 17.2 possessions per 40 minutes. Posey shot 39% from 3point range with an eFG% of 55.1%. He had an excellent true shooting percentage of 61.4%. His offensive rating was 119 and his defensive rating was 101, both numbers above average (in fact, his offensive rating was excellent). Posey averaged 5.5 free throws and 2.3 steals per 40 minutes. He also averaged 6.6 boards per 40 minutes (though not much of a difference from his rebounds per 40 minutes in 2004-05). Because of his sprained thumb, he will miss the first few games of the season.

Expectations: Which Posey do you go with? The 2003-04 or 2004-05 version? Chances are he'll reach a medium between the two seasons and have an eFG% of about 49% and a true shooting percentage of 55-56%. Posey's usage rate should be about 16 possessions per 40 minutes. His steals should reflect his career numbers of 1.8 per 40 minutes and his 3point shooting should be at about 35-36% if he can take advantage of the open looks provided by Flash and Shaq.

Defensively, Posey is young, tall, and very athletic, which should help him have a good year taking the toughest perimeter assignment every night. Will he be as good as Eddie Jones was for us last season? Probably not. But he'll be close.

Udonis Haslem: He had a good year with the Heat last season, with a PER of 15.55 (better than league average, but 30th among power forwards) while taking 9.6 shots per 40 minutes. He produced 119 points per 100 possessions and allowed 102 points per 100 possessions, both numbers well above average. He had an eFG% of 54.1% and a true shooting percentage of 58.8%.

Haslem went to the free throw line only 3.4 times per 40 minutes, but hit 79.1% of his free throws. He only used 13.4 possessions per 40 minutes and missed all 4 of the threes he attempted last season. Haslem was the Heat's 2nd-best offensive rebounder last season, picking up 33% of the Heat's offensive rebounds when he was in the game. He was also the team's 2nd-best defensive rebounder, picking up 26% of Miami's defensive boards when he was in the game. Overall, Haslem averaged 10.9 boards per 40 minutes. Not bad for a player who went undrafted just 3 years ago.

Expectations: With reports surfacing that Haslem was working on adding a 3point shot to his repertoire over the summer, he will now be able to stretch defenses out to 3point range and improve the Heat's spacing (assuming he actually uses the shot during the games). If not, expect to see similar numbers from last season. High shooting percentage, excellent offensive rebounding and very good defensive rebounding, and good free throw shooting.

Don't forget that Haslem, as evidenced by his defensive rating of 102 last season (compared to the league average of 106), will provide very good defense on opposing power forwards despite the fact that he is only 6'8". He won't be blocking many shots next season, however.

Shaquille O'Neal: The most dominant center in the NBA put up his usual excellent numbers last season. His PER of 26.95 was the best among centers. He produced an offensive rating of 111 and a defensive rating of 100, both well above average. He had an eFG% of 60.1%, but a true shooting percentage of 58.3% (because he shot 46.1% from the foul line last season). However, he took 12.3 free throws for the Heat per 40 minutes, which helped the team get into the penalty quicker and have players like Wade get to the line more easily.

Shaq took 17.6 shots and used 27.4 possessions per 40 minutes. Shaq had 1.13 blocks for every foul he committed and averaged 2.67 blocks per 40 minutes. Most importantly, he only missed 9 games last season, the fewest he had missed since the 2000-01 season. O'Neal was the Heat's best offensive and defensive rebounder last season, picking up 40% of the Heat's offensive rebounds and 27% of its defensive rebounds when he was on the court. Overall, he averaged 12.2 rebounds per 40 minutes. He did average 3.3 turnovers per 40 minutes and that number needs to go down this season. The only player who shot significantly better with Shaq on the court was Shandon Anderson. He shot 50% with O'Neal on the court compared to 46% overall. Haslem actually shot 54% overall compared to 52% with Shaq on the court. Christian Laettner shot 58% overall compared to 56% with Shaq on the court. And Michael Doleac shot 45% overall compared to 40% with Shaq on the court. This means, like Wade, Shaq's impact on the other players will be more so getting to the line and getting the Heat into the penalty than creating open looks (though some players certainly will benefit from the open looks).

Expectations: Look for Shaq's eFG% and true shooting percentage to stay about the same. It's a shame he misses so many free throws because if he didn't, his true shooting percentage would be astronomical. He will take a ton of free throws next season and miss the majority of them at a percentage of around 47.5%. But what is important is that those free throw attempts will allow Wade and at times Williams to create more free throws for themselves.

Shaq will always be a very good rebounder and defender because of his size and ability to clog the lane on D. His usage rate will stay the same, as will his shots per 40 minutes. But his minutes will be going down to the 30-32 minute range considering he's 33 and has an excellent backup center in Alonzo Mourning. However, what matters is that he will be just as efficient as he was last season. After receiving a 5-year, $100 million extension this past summer, Shaq will want to conserve his energy for the playoffs and the upcoming seasons.

Bench

Gary Payton: He had a good year last season, though his PER of 15.18, 28th among point guards and just above league average wouldn't seem to indicate it. Payton took 11.4 shots per 40 minutes and had an eFG% of 49.7%. He had a true shooting percentage of 53.7%. The "Glove" had an above average offensive rating of 111 and a below average defensive rating of 109. He only used 17.2 possessions per 40 minutes. He hit 76.1% of his free throw while getting to the line 3.2 times per 40 minutes.

Payton had an assists to bad pass ratio of 5.4, among the best in the NBA. He averaged 7.4 assists per 40 minutes. Payton only committed 2.3 turnovers per 40 minutes as well. Only 27% of the turnovers he committed last season were a result of his ballhandling, while 59% of his turnovers were a result of his passing. He had 1.2 steals per 40 minutes, down from his career rate of 2.2 steals per 40 minutes. Antoine Walker shot 47% with Payton on the floor compared to 44% overall as a Celtic last season. Al Jefferson shot 56% with Payton on the court compared to 52% overall. And Mark Blount shot 55% with Payton on the court compared to 53% overall. However, Walker McCarty shot 39% with Payton on the floor compared to 41% overall. Kendrick Perkins shot 47% overall and 43% with Payton on the court. Tony Allen also shot worse with Payton on the court (48% overall; 46% with Payton on the court).

Expectations: Payton will continue to be an efficient shooter next season and have a good true shooting percentage. His eFG% is questionable since he doesn't hit 3's very well (33% last season), but it will still be around 50%. He will continue to be an efficient passer, as evidenced by his high assists to bad pass ratio. He won't commit many turnovers and he will pick up a good number of assists per 40 minutes.

Payton's playing time will decrease since he will be backing up Jason Williams. However, since coach Stan Van Gundy plans to use Spiderman, Payton, and Flash together in a 3-guard set at times this season, he can "steal" some more minutes. Damon Jones was the better option to sign this offseason, but Payton is cheaper and still very effective. He will be the playmaker on offense.

Dorell Wright: Wright got virtually no playing time last season, playing in only 3 games (in two of those games, he played garbage time minutes). He had an eFG% of 27.3% and a true shooting percentage of 61.2%. He averaged 1.33 steals and 1.0 turnover in 9 minutes per game (5.9 steals and 4.4 turnovers per 40 minutes). Nothing can be taken from these numbers considering the very small sample size. In the 2005-06 preseason, Wright had an eFG% of 47.8% and a true shooting percentage of 50.6% in 7 games. He averaged 1.37 steals and 3.62 turnovers per 40 minutes. However, nothing can be taken from these numbers either since they came in only 7 games.

Expectations: Wright should spend the season playing in the NBDL, getting good playing time against good competition. He is only 19 years old so he probably will not be a major contributor on the team this season, barring major injury to one of the wings. If he is not sent to the NBDL, he will have to spend time on the day-to-day Inactive List and earn his playing time through practice. He worked out with Dwyane Wade this summer, so he is considerably bigger than he was last season. However, he still needs to gain weight. He lost a couple of his teeth this summer when he was elbowed by Laker Von Wafer in the Long Beach summer league, so at points in the season he will miss time due to surgeries.

Matt Walsh: He had an eFG% of 57.7% last season in his junior year at the University of Florida, improving upon his sophomore eFG% of 53.7%. Walsh had a true shooting percentage of 62.8%, improving upon his true shooting percentage as a sopohomore of 60.1%. Last year, he shot 82% from the free throw line and got to the line 5.1 times per 40 minutes. He also averaged 1.3 steals per 40 minutes.

Expectations: Walsh will probably spend the season in the NBDL or stay with the team, but be on the day-to-day Inactive List. If Anderson or Jason Kapono is injured at some point during the season, expect Walsh to take their place backing up Dwyane Wade and James Posey. One can make the case for Walsh getting playing time over Anderson and Kapono anyway, considering his shooting in college. But it remains to be seen whether that translates to the pros. For now, because of Posey's sprained thumb, Walsh will be in the regular rotation.

Shandon Anderson: He had a PER of only 8.93 last season, 57th among small forwards. But his strong defensive rating of 103 is what landed him a minimum deal and roster spot on the Heat this season. He had a poor eFG% of 46.3% and a true shooting percentage of only 51.8%, with an offensive rating of only 103. Anderson used only 11.0 possessions per 40 minutes. He did shoot 82% from the free throw line, but only took 2.3 free throws per 40 minutes. Anderson only averaged 1.4 steals per 40 minutes, but he is quick enough to stay with his man and put a hand up in his face.

Expectations: Anderson will be called upon by SVG at shooting guard, small forward, or even power forward when the team needs defense against teams like the Suns or Spurs. The team will have to live with his limited offensive production. He does have a career true shooting percentage of 53.7%, so it is possible that he improves this season to that range. At times last season, he worked very well scoring when cutting to the basket off feeds from Shaq. His perimeter game is virtually nonexistent at this stage in his career, so cutting to the hoop is how he will have to earn most of his points.

Jason Kapono: He didn’t have a great year last season with the Charlotte Bobcats, with a PER of only 11.8 (43rd among small forwards). He did shoot 41.2% from 3-point range, though he had an eFG% of only 46.1%. His true shooting percentage wasn't any better, at only 48.6%. His offensive rating was 101 and his defensive rating was 111, both numbers well below average. He shot 82% from the line, but only took 2.3 attempts per 40 minutes. He used 20.5 possessions per 40 minutes. It'd be great if all of the shots he took were 3's since he's so effective behind the arc, but instead 71% of his shots last season were inside the arc, where he only shot 40%. Casey Jacobsen would have been the better option to sign considering his 55.5% true shooting percentage last season, assuming he had interest in signing with the Heat. Jacobsen is now in Spain with pro team Tau Ceramica.

Expectations: Kapono will be relied upon to back up Dwyane Wade and James Posey at the shooting guard and small forward positions. If he took all his shots behind the arc and made 35% of them, he would have an excellent year considering that would equate to an eFG% of 52.5% (and an even higher true shooting percentage). Since that probably won't happen, Kapono must improve his shooting inside the arc. He is a liability on defense, as evidenced by his very poor defensive rating, so at times he will have to give way to the Heat's defensive specialist off the bench in Anderson.

Antoine Walker: He had a poor 2004-05 campaign with a PER of 15.41 (only 30th among power forwards and below that of Haslem, the player he'll be backing up but still above the league average of 15.00, however). His offensive rating was a very poor 95 and his defensive rating was a below average 108. Walker's 3point shooting percentage was only 32%. His eFG% was horrible, at only 46.2%. Walker's true shooting percentage was a dismal 47.8%. He took 5 free throws per 40 minutes and only made 53.9% of them.

Walker used 25.3 possessions and committed 3.4 turnovers per 40 minutes. In short, he was a very inefficient player. Walker did take down 27% of his teams' defensive rebounds when he was in the game, but only took down 20% of his teams' offensive rebounds. Overall, he averaged 9.4 rebounds per 48 minutes. Since the team is already stacked with defensive rebounders, Walker needs to improve his offensive rebounding.

Expectations: Walker was not a very good player last season, and his shooting must improve this season in order for him to be effective. That means fewer 3pointers and more penetration. His game can resemble that of Lamar Odom's at times, but he spends too much time setting up on the perimeter and taking low-percentage shots. Expect his defensive boards to go down with the presence of Zo and even Wayne Simien at times (if the Heat decides to go big).

If Walker takes more high-percentage shots and hits his free throws, the Heat should win the title next season. If not, the team will lose to the Spurs or possibly even the Pacers and Pistons in the playoffs. Amazing that a team's fortunes are riding on whether or not an inefficient player suddenly becomes more efficient.

Wayne Simien: He had an eFG% of 55.8% last season in his senior year at the University of Kansas, improving upon his eFG% as a junior of 53.5%. His true shooting percentage of 62.5% was also better than his true shooting percentage of 61.0% as a junior. He averaged 12.8 rebounds per 40 minutes, but missed time due to a shoulder injury. 29% of his rebounds were on the offensive boards (3.8 per 40 minutes). SVG has said that Simien is the most fundamental big man he has ever seen coming out of college. He can knock down the mid-range jumper but isn't much of a shot blocker.

Expectations: Expect to see him on the day-to-day Inactive List or possibly even the NBDL this season. He may get some minutes if SVG wants to go big and play Walker at small forward and Simien at power forward, but the Heat has too much depth in the frontcourt to give Simien extended minutes. Simien will have to make his mark during practice. If he does play, the Heat need him to be a presence on the offensive boards.

Michael Doleac: He had a poor year last season, with a PER of only 9.68, 59th among centers. Doleac had an eFG% of only 44.7% and a true shooting percentage of only 46.0%. He went to the line only 1.4 times per 48 minutes, and only hit 61% of his free throws. Doleac's offensive rating was a poor 100, though his defensive rating was a strong 103. He only used 13.7 possessions per 40 minutes. Doleac took down 24% of the Heat's offensive rebounds and 24% of their defensive rebounds when he was on the court. This makes him a liability because he is an average defensive rebounder and a below average offensive rebounder. Doleac did average 8.8 boards per 40 minutes, but isn't much of a shot blocker despite his height.

Expectations: Look for Doleac to be the 3rd-string center behind Shaq and Zo. He may even lose playing time to 7-0 rookie Earl Barron, signed by the Heat this past summer. The Hawks were reportedly interested in Doleac and could be willing to offer a 2nd round pick for him. If the Heat feel secure with Barron as the 3rd-stringer, they have to make this deal, especially considering as of right now they have no picks for the 2006 draft.

Earl Barron: He had an eFG% of 49.9% last season in the NBDL for the Huntsville Flight. Barron's true shooting percentage for the Flight was an above average 56.1%. He shot 81% from the foul line and took 5.7 free throws per 40 minutes. He averaged 8.8 rebounds per 48 minutes but most importantly, 42% of his rebounds were offensive boards (3.7 offensive boards per 40 minutes). He wasn't much of a shot blocker (0.97 blocks per 40 minutes) despite his height, but he didn't turn the ball over much either (2.1 turnovers per 40 minutes).

Expectations: He made the team in training camp and if his NBDL numbers translate to the pros, he will make Doleac expendable to a team like the Hawks. For now, Barron will be the 3rd-string center to Shaq and Zo (Doleac is still recovering from a calf injury). When Doleac returns, Barron should spend time again in the NBDL for the Florida Flame. If any of the Heat's big men get injured, he will be called up to the pros. Miami needs Barron to shoot well, get to the line, not turn the ball over, and pick up offensive rebounds for a team whose major weakness is offensive rebounding.

Alonzo Mourning: He only played 37 games last season, but still put up good numbers. He had a PER of 15.33, 25th among centers. In that span he had an eFG% of 47.2% and a true shooting percentage of 51.5%. He shot 58.2% from the line on 8 free throws per 40 minutes. He used 19.5 possessions per 40 minutes and had a very good defensive rating of 98. However, his offensive rating was only 98, indicating that he still needed time to adjust offensively coming off a kidney transplant. He averaged 27% of his teams' offensive rebounds and 28% of his teams' defensive rebounds when he was on the court and averaged 11.3 boards per 40 minutes. Zo also averaged 4.2 blocks per 40 minutes. He needs to cut down on his turnovers, as shown by his 3.2 turnovers per 40 minutes.

In his career, Zo has had an eFG% of 52.4% and a true shooting percentage of 58.1%. He has used 24.1 possessions per 40 minutes and has had a PER of 21.7. Zo has shot 70% from the line on 9.3 free throws per 40 minutes. He has averaged 11.2 boards per 40 minutes. Zo has also averaged 3.5 blocks and 3.5 turnovers per 40 minutes.

Expectations: Zo will be needed for his defensive rebounding and blocks next season. His usage rate will go down, but his shooting percentage will go up with a full preseason to learn the team's plays and make adjustments. As a result, his PER and offensive rating will go up to the 17.00 and 107-108 range, respectively.

Zo will be called upon for 15-20 minutes every game to give Shaq a breather and even play alongside him at power forward at times. Considering the Heat had one of the worst offensive rebounding percentages in the NBA last season, Zo will have to take over the offensive boards off the bench, since Walker is more of a defensive rebounder and Simien will only get limited minutes.

Player capsules written by TheBigAristotle92
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With the given personnel and the challenges that lay ahead for the Heat, there should be expected a bumpy start to the season. After all, there are 8 new players to this year's team - which is close to last year's roster turnover which saw only 6 players return from the previous season. Stan Van Gundy has his work cut out for him, but with players like Shaq and Zo setting the tone, the roster should fall into line.

So, let's wish the boys good luck for the upcoming season. It is going to be filled with much drama and fun. Expect to see old rivalries renewed - like the Knicks, under coach Larry Brown who was exchanging jabs in the media only several months ago as a coach of the Pistons with Stan Van Gundy. And there is the Pacers, who are getting Ron Artest back. Factor in that the Heat have a bigger target on their backs this year and there is plenty to watch out for.

Good luck and go Heat.

5 Burning Questions for 2005-2006



Tonight the Heat kick off another NBA season - but arguably its most anticipated season to date. After the arrival of Shaq last season, that seems to be a very hard feat to top. Nonetheless, here we are.

What I would like to do here is list 5 questions that we will need to keep in the back of our minds as the season progresses. So, here we go:

5) Will Dorrell Wright or any other young player be able to contribute to this year's team success? Wright is in year 2 of his NBA career and outside of practice, doesn't have much experience to show for his time thus far. He missed the Summer League with an injury, but came on pretty strong in preseason. Still, he is very young and may need time to develop. Despite the talent upgrade this team went through, there maybe not enough depth at certain positions without having to rely on some of the young talent the Heat have. This means Wayne Simien, Earl Barron, Matt Walsh and Wright may all have to step up their education in order to help out this Heat team at some point during the season.

4) Will the new guys adjust? The question isn't really whether or not there is enough shots to go around, or enough touches, but whether the players on this team will buy into a reduced role while at the same time challenging themselves to become more efficient players. All of this for the sake of a championship and winning.

3) Will the Heat have enough 3 point accuracy? After losing Damon Jones, the Heat have had to scramble to replace his .432 three point FG% as well as the .372 clip of Eddie Jones. Jason Kapono can hit the three, but that is about it. Jason Williams and Gary Payton are not strong three point shooters historically, and Dwyane Wade very rarely attempts the trifecta. Defenders may cheat down and double up on the interior and force the Heat to shoot.

2) Will Dwyane Wade be able to adapt and continue to grow his game? Michael Jordan experienced it early in his career and it looks like Dwyane Wade is now faced with a similar challenge - the growth and maturation of his game. Dwyane Wade started to develop an outside shot last season under the tutelage of Erik Spoelstra, Heat assistant coach. Even gaining some confidence with a buzzer beater in Madison Square Garden against the Knicks. Yet now, with the new cast, Wade will be asked to move without the ball more. While this means less wear and tear as he is not asked to handle the ball as much, it could also serve as a growing pain to Wade's game as he tends to rely on having the ball in his hands to make plays. We could see either an evolution of Dwyane Wade's game or possibly see his shortcomings in a higher relief.

1) Will there be a parade down Biscayne? Riley said he dreamed about it, envisioned it when he first came to Miami about 10 years ago. After landing Shaq and the uber-development of Dwyane Wade, and pulling off the biggest trade in NBA history, the Heat seem to have all the ingredients necessary to make the impossible a reality. Don't worry about the Riley-to-coach story, although that is something to definetly keep an eye on, there seems to be little evidence to warrant Riley taking over. If anything, Stan Van Gundy has demonstrated himself to be one of the most dynamic coaches in the modern-NBA - going from the Lamar Odom, Dwyane Wade and Caron Butler fun-and-gun playoff team to the Eastern powerhouse of last season. The coaching staff and the core players are tempered by the excitement and expectation of a playoff hunt and that could go a long way towards hoisting the trophy. If the Heat are to grasp the title, it will have definetly been earned.

Burn baby, burn.

Monday, October 31, 2005

Hyperminutes: The only way to run



It's that time of year again, basketball fans: the season opener. The opening tip. And there is plenty to sort through before all of that begins.

The Heat have obviously made a ton of noise this offseason - like a jet-engine alarm clock sounding off. But stop hitting that snooze alarm, time to wake up.

Unfortunately, most of the noise has been negative. Actually, harsly negative. The nay-sayers continue to expound upon the notion of team chemistry, and how personalities like Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, Shaquille O'neal, Gary Payton and Dwyane Wade will all clash like a Nicole Richie outfit. One of the paramount issues in this on-going chemistry debate is whether or not the new Heatians can subscribe to 'lesser roles' or becoming 'complementary players'. This is the charge of the head coach, Stan Van Gundy - and it is possible.

As for the latter concept, every player is a complementary player. Not to wax philosophical, but it is a team sport and like any organism, it can only function as well as it is composed. As for the idea of a 'lesser roles', SVG is going to have sell the whole team on this concept because EVERYONE will, in essence, take on a lesser role.

First of all, this is how teams become champions. You increase the talent in the talent pool and become less dependent on one player carrying the team. This is what Minnesota has yet to figure out with Kevin Garnett - who seems to get a hernia carrying that team year in and year out.

Yet, this also leaves the door wide open and illustrates for us the idea of 'hyperproductivity' or something I would like to coin which is 'hyperminutes'.

The idea is simple: it is all about efficiency in a given period of time. Basketball stats has, for example, figures that are calculated out per minute and then gives what a player's production would look like over a 48 minute span. This is nothing revolutionary at this point; every novice basketball fan has heard of a player's production over 48 minutes.

If we follow this illustration, we can see how the Heat have to approach their season and meet the challenge of keeping the players happy. Stan Van Gundy and the coaching staff all have to articulate to the players that their numbers may fall off, but the challenge for each player must be in not just keeping pace with their prior career numbers, but improving upon them and becoming more efficient. Believe it or not, this will require each player to be better, and at the same time being on a team like the Heat which is deep with talent, they will have more opportunities to become more efficient players.

Better efficiency increases the likelihood of winning. With increased wins comes increased chances for a player to win a game, too. After all, nothing builds 'chemistry' more than winning. Or does good chemistry yield wins? Well, that debate may never be settled. But one thing is for sure, for the Miami Heat to be successful this season, there is one main challenge they are faced with: to convince their players to take on less minutes and become more efficient players and show how that this will benefit them as a team.

Quite simply, the Heat are faced with making a team out of what has been already deemed a collection of indivduals. Selling the players on a notion like hyperproduction or hyperminutes is the key to making a run for the championship.

Saturday, October 29, 2005

How the Glove will fit

The preseason is over - at least, the scrimmages between other teams are. The Heat are pretty much done with their evaluations and the coaching staff and front office are left to figure out how they want to configure the talent on this team and mesh it with their gameplan. The sole focus remains a championship. Given the well-documented trade and the upgrade in depth that the Heat have found, the challenge of getting all these pieces to fit remains the ultimate hurdle for this franchise - and for quieting the doubters as well.

Yet, lurking in the background is one prominent question: where does this leave Gary Payton? How is Gary Payton going to figure into the Heat's plans? I think the immediate answer is backup PG, but I also think we may see GP in a role we have seen him in only rarely - backup SG, too.

The Heat really have no favorable options for the backup SG position behind Dwyane Wade. You could send Dorrell Wright or Matt Walsh out there and hope they grow into the role, but that is a risk that Stan Van Gundy may not be willing to take. You also have the option of putting Jason Kapono at the two with the second unit, but his lack of defense makes it a liability as well. Shandon Anderson is another option, but he should be looked to primarily as a SF defensive presence.

But what about the Glove? Can he play 2 guard? He is only listed at 6'3" - but Dwyane Wade is not towering over him, all of 6'4" himself. What Gary Payton does bring, in addition to his mental toughness and veteran experience, is his ability to create off the dribble and penetrate as well as shoot the 3 point shot.

Of course, the downside is, Jason Williams would have to be in there when Payton is wearing his backup SG hat. But this also means, potentially, that SVG has the option of keeping all three stars happy in terms of minutes and involvement. You could see a three headed beast with the likes of Williams, Wade and Payton all being rotated in and out to offer periods of rest or insurance against foul trouble for each player.

Not to mention, as a shooting guard, a player needs to move well and score without the ball. Gary Payton, playing alongside JWill this preseason, has demonstrated that on the occasion that Van Gundy has demanded it. This could also be a tip of the cap towards what the Heat head coach is thinking in terms of mixing up his personnel.

However this season shakes out, Gary Payton will most undoubtedly have a part in its success. What role that is exactly has yet to be revealed. An untraditional role maybe just the perfect part to help this veteran and future hall-of-famer find that elusive ring.

Thursday, October 27, 2005

Reversal of Fortune?

It was the mid-90's. The Magic were the NBA's darlings. They had Brian Hill leading Shaq and Penny Hardaway and Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott and a whole host of players towards the NBA Finals. They ran into the Houston Rockets. And the 72-win Bulls the next season in 95-96.

And then Shaq left.

But for a moment on the NBA scene, the Magic were one of the best franchises in the NBA. They won the lottery seemingly every year and built their franchise with Shaq and a trade that landed Penny Hardaway (and sent Chris Webber packing). The Magic today look far different, yet there is still that glimpse of the familiar. Brian Hill returns to lead the Magic once again, and gives the franchise a direct link to its once glorious, although short, past. And so does Shaq, yet from the visiting team's locker.

Looking at this scene one cannot help but ponder how both franchises have swirled since those mid-90's days - since after Shaq. Shaq went on to pick up paychecks for the Lakers and with his heavy bills he lifted the Lakers to championship after championship. He also left a hefty void in the East that allowed for teams to rise and take over the lofty position once held by the Magic. The Heat were one of the teams that began to reap success on the embers of the burning Magic franchise. They landed arguably one of the best coaches ever to grace an NBA bench in Pat Riley who then transformed this franchise into the New York Knicks south, but instead of Patrick Ewing he had Alonzo Mourning. He also found a resurrected Timmy Hardaway and guided the Heat towards several Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference showdowns - becoming favorites in several of those seasons. Yet still losing to their hated Knick rivals.

The Magic, on the other hand, fell while the Heat rose.

And how odd is it today that these two franchises square off again with such a wide gap between them. Shaq joined the Heat last season in the twilight of his career partnering up for a championship ride with Dwyane Wade. Now, a whole cast of who's who in basketball have joined up with the Diesel-powered Heat. The Magic? An injured Grant Hill and a young Dwight Howard will lead this cast on the court to what hopes to be a playoff appearance at the end of the season.

When Shaq left, was there indeed a reversal of fortune for both of these franchises? Did it help the Heat in terms of getting more exposure for their franchise over the Magic when Shaq left?

The answer seems as obvious as the final score of tonight's preseason game.

Saturday, October 22, 2005

A Rivalry Renewed?

The last time we saw our heroes, they were losing game 7 in Miami to the Detroit Pistons, who took the Eastern Conference title from a hobbled Heat team. There was no shortage of jabs during the series either - most notably the exchanges in the media by Larry Brown and Stan Van Gundy. Van Gundy complained about Larry Brown's whining over officiating, Larry Brown whined about Van Gundy's complaining about Brown's whining.

But things have changed. The Pistons have changed, and so have the Heat.

LB is gone. His desire to coach the Pistons gave in to a desire to coach the Knicks instead (insert standard bite about Larry Brown's coaching wanderlust here). No one is happier probably than Darko Milicic, who actually gets to wear sneakers to a game for a change instead of wingtips.

The Heat have changed too. Damon Jones karate-inspired, posting-up-from-half-court point guard play is gone. So are his cement-filled shoes. Instead the Heat have the ultra-slick Jason Williams who Stan Van Gundy, get this, actually wants to open up his game MORE. James Posey replaces Eddie Jones - and is a better defender at the SF position as that is his natural position. And then there is Antoine Walker coming off the bench next to future hall-of-famer Gary Payton.

That is just the start for both teams. One can argue that the Pistons may actually be better. In fact, I will make the argument - I think Flip Saunders is a better coach for this Pistons team. They know what to do, there is no more learning needed and Flip is a player's coach and his players will play for him and not have to wonder where his loyalties lay. Those distractions will disappear, as could any malaise the Pistons may have suffered undergoing another season with the status quo.

Some of the intensity of the rivalry is gone, some say. I very seriously doubt it. Both of these teams are going to be beasts in the East. Both of these teams know what is at stake and have a chance to grasp the title but the claim of it may come by knocking out the other. There will be no quarter - not even in the preseason. There will be sizing up, there will be trash talking.

And as a fan, you have got to love what is pending.

Monday, October 17, 2005

Everyone, relax

The Heat are 1-2 in their early preseason run and have tabulated over 20 turnovers each time out. Stan Van Gundy is already critical of the lack of ball movement and POOF! - the Heat have problems.

Or so the media would want you to believe. Oh yeah, and the sky is falling.

It is ridiculous to think that this team was going to spring out of the gate without a hitch. This is not a shuttle launch people, this is a basketball team. And anyone who has seen the movie 'Hoosiers' could tell you it will take more than a montage to get this team on the same page.

Think about the personnel this team has: only 6 returning players and two of them were on the team last year for only about half the season (Anderson and Mourning). Throw in a couple of rookies for good measure as well as the fact that three of the new guys - acquired in the history making mega deal - are going to be major components to this soon-to-be-well-oiled machine and you have quite a job ahead of you.

But soon is not now, not in the preseason. Soon may not even be until late December or January. And that is the kind of perspective one must hold to when dealing with a team and its journey over the course of a season. The old motto - a marathon, not a sprint - is most applicable here.

Instead of focusing on the problems here, lets take a look at what we can grow to expect more of. Friday night, against the Grizzlies in Puerto Rico, Zo blocks a shot in the paint and keeps it in play - typical of Zo's blocked shots. Jason Williams picks up the loose ball, and begins running a fast break - the kind of improvisation which would bring a smile to Jimi Hendrix's face. Wade cuts outside ont the wing, drawing his man out and spreading the floor, but instead of giving it up to Dwyane, JWill holds on to the ball and waits for the coming storm - which he finds in the form of a slashing Alonzo Mourning who takes the pass from Williams and rocks the rim with a thunderous dunk.

This is the kind of play you can expect to see from the Heat for now - improvisation on the fly - because the talent level is so rich for this team that all these players will show their great instincts. What you will come to see in the near future - that is, if this team wants to win any hardware at the end of this season - will be brilliance contained within set plays and formations. The kind of synchronicity and timing that is expected of a champion.

Make no mistake, that will not be found now, in the preseason. Being overly critical of this team at this point is like walking out on a movie during the previews.

So sit back, relax. And have a little patience.

Friday, October 14, 2005

The Return of Easy-Ed

Tonight's preseason game against the Grizzlies - live from San Juan, Puerto Rico (8:30pm NBA TV) - has some very intriguing back-stories. Sure, there is the matchup of Jason Williams and James Posey against their former teammates on the Memphis roster. There is even the story of Jason Williams going up against Mike Fratello - a coach who was rumored to not be very thrilled with Jason Williams' production. Fratello was also the Heat's color analyst for their TV broadcasts while he was here in Miami for a brief stint before being hired on as the Grizzlies head coach after Hubie Brown stepped down.

But behind all of this is an even more interesting storyline - the one that sees Eddie Jones return to play against his former team. Sure, it is not in front of a Miami crowd at this point (that isn't until January 24th), but it is still bittersweet. EJ will now go up against the team that only a couple of months ago he was a part of and auditioning to be in the Finals representing the East. Now, he is cast over to the Western Conference and playing for another scrappy up-start, the Grizzlies. Eddie can take solace in the fact that one of the best GM's ever to grace the game, Jerry West, wanted him to play (again) for his team - eventhough one of the best coaches and now, Presidents, had sent him packing in Pat Riley.

Still, the former Heat team captain seemed to have left town as quietly as he came. He never got the respect that he deserved from the majority of the Heat fans; most "heatians" coming on-board the crowded bandwagon very late. Like 50,000 mile-warranty-expiring-late. As a result, most of these fans missed out on why Eddie Jones was such a valuable player to the Heat.

Last season, Eddie Jones took to the role of playing small forward. This was not his natural position, playing mostly shooting guard throughout his career, but he took to it and did what the team and Stan Van Gundy asked. EJ was a premier defender, and the Heat's go-to guy for perimeter defense - going up against players much larger than him and probably stronger on any given night. And he shut each opponent down, night in and night out.

EJ's offense wasn't worth the big contract he was getting, sure. But it didn't have to be - after all, this became Dwyane Wade and Shaq's teams while EJ was on watch. He knew that, and deferred - without question or complaint.

EJ also was a great citizen, standing out for his work in the community as well as being a presence in the clubhouse for his work ethic.

Tonight we get to check up on an old friend. We get to see how he is doing, how he is adjusting at his new job in a new town. We should all wish Eddie Jones the best, because when he played for the Heat, he gave us just that - his best.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Heat sign Braswell and Rice

Today was the Heat's media day, right before kicking off training camp tomorrow, but this wasn't the only activity going on for the Heat - they also signed former UM star Darius Rice and PG Kevin Braswell.

Braswell, a 6'2" point guard hailing from Georgetown as their 7th all time leading scorer, has played with Darius Rice before - last season for the Florida Flames of the NBDL. The Flames are also the minor league affiliate for the Miami Heat. Braswell has been signed due to recent concerns over injuries former Kentucky PG Gerald Fitch has sustained.

Darius Rice, nephew of NFL great Jerry Rice, is listed at 6'10" 222lbs and averaged 16.1PPG for UM. He shot .344 from 3 point range for his college career while also hitting from the field at a clip of .403. He looks to challenge for a spot at SF or even SG during training camp.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Finally, Payton

The Heat signed Gary Payton to a veteran minimum contract of $1.1M earlier today. This was the same kind of contract the Heat re-signed Shandon Anderson to only a few days earlier.

This is a coup, ladies and gentlemen. Why? The Heat not only obtained an experienced point guard with a wide assortment of skills, but got him on board for huge value. The Heat still retain their $5 million mid-level salary cap exception as well as their $1.9 million trade exception.

But make no mistake, this is not a surprise, no matter what some reports may claim. The Heat have been looking at Payton for some time now, the most recent mentionings coming into the press on September 11th - but this courtship has been going on since late July, early August. Here are some sources:

Shaq wants Payton
Miami Heatzone Discussion Sept. 11
Miami Heatzone Discussion Sept. 5
Miami Herald - Heat contact Payton Aug. 9

Apparently, trade talks with the Wizards had broken down and the Heat opted not to go after Blake but instead focus on their discussions with Payton.

Heat re-sign Anderson and explore other possibilities

The Heat solidified its rotation and depth at the small forward position by re-signing Shandon Anderson to a veteran minimum contract. Anderson, a 31-year-old veteran, is expected to continue to provide the strong perimeter defense since being acquired from the Knicks last season. But he is not, as suggested by Ira Winderman, going to be the answer off the bench for the Heat beyond James Posey. I would suggest that Antoine Walker come off the bench at the small forward position, with Wayne Simien being the backup at power forward. This alleviates the need for the Heat to acquire another player, spend more money, and have to figure out what to do with its already booming roster.

Anderson was signed to the veteran's minimum, a special contract which can be used by any team as often as it wants to fill out its roster for eligible players. This also leaves the entire $5 million mid-level salary-cap exception intact for the Heat as well as its $1.9 million trade exception. This of course gives the Heat a lot of payroll flexibility and options to explore at this time.

In fact, Ira Winderman also reports that the Heat are taking a "second look" at free-agent Rodney White, a small forward that was the 2001 first-round pick of the Pistons, and is also looking at former Stanford standout Casey Jacobsen and Jason Kapono who played for the Bobcats last season. Both players are expected to provide outside shooting, something the Heat have been criticized of lacking going into this season. Both players have demonstrated this skill, hitting 3 pointers at clips of .373 and .474, respectfully, for their young careers.

Also according to Ira Winderman, the Heat are earmarking their entire $5 million exception for free-agent point guard Gary Payton who played for Boston last season. Reports have surfaced ranging from Shaq's desire to have Gary Payton in Miami and even to a recent remark by Pat Riley which suggested that the Heat envision a spot for the veteran in their backup point guard role.

Stay tuned to the Miami Heatzone for more details.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

DJ leaves but there is still hope

So, DJ left Miami with a $16M/4 year paycheck. Good. He has worked hard to get himself into this position and now should be the starting point guard for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

And that is something he definetly wouldn't have seen in Miami - another starting role.

After the Heat landed Jason Williams in a trade, the best DJ could hope for would have been a backup role. And in truth, I was not thrilled at that prospect.

Most of Jones' abilities were reliant on Shaq's presence in the paint and his ability to draw defenders to him. Dwyane Wade also helped enhance DJ's game, too, but it all started with Shaq. On this year's Heat team, DJ may not have seen much time on the floor with his good friend O'neal since he wouldn't have started. So, his complementary role was noted, but not renewed.

Not to mention, DJ offered a slower attack for this current Heat team. With Walker in the 2nd unit, as expected, the bench will be looking to push the ball, too. Walker is already going to be launching threes and with Zo's presence inside, it just may work. But having two players hanging around the perimeter may have clogged things and slowed it all down dramatically.

But a departing point guard seems all too familiar to Heat fans who watched Keyon Dooling depart earlier in the offseason to Orlando, getting that big paycheck and a chance to start. But this also seems familiar too - a young or virtually unknown point guard comes to Miami and makes himself known. This should also give hope to Heat fans who may start to panic at the loss of DJ. Rest assured, the Heat have options that could actually be better. There is still restricted free agent Steven Blake and even oft-traveled vetern Howard Eisely. The athletic Anthony Goldwire, long a Riley target, is also hovering out there as are some other intriguing young talents like DaJuan Wagner, Jannero Pargo and even Jay Williams.

So, wish DJ well. It was fun while it lasted. But there is still plenty left for Miami to choose from and move forward on their hopes of reaching the ultimate goal - a championship.

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

The Cold War

It has started to settle deep into the background of the NBA. Lurking behind the scenes in a dark shadow, but such is the price of greatness.

There is a cold war being waged. And two of the teams that are involved are among the elite franchises in the NBA.

On one side stands the San Antonio Spurs. The defending world champs that have leaped from team on the rise to potential dynasty. They have excellent scouting. Excellent coaching. They have a nice mixture of young players in Ginobili and Parker and veterans in Duncan, Horry, and Bowen. They get the maximum out of their players and they are as smart as they are skilled. The Spurs are the class of the NBA - they cast their nets far and wide to bring home the best talent available that fits their system and plays their brand of basketball.

On the other side stands the noveau riche Miami Heat. Built with a strong foundation on the shoulders of Alonzo Mourning, this franchise rose and fell within the last 5 years of the 1990's. But like a phoenix, the Heat rose again from their ashes through the shrewd drafting of players like Caron Butler and Dwyane Wade. Pat Riley, always with a jewler's eye for talent, transferred coaching duties to his super assistant, Stan Van Gundy. This move paid off by freeing Riley from one of his toughest customers - Pat Riley the coach. No longer relegated to a certain style of play, the Heat were able to land talent to fit a system that Van Gundy could tailor to the needs of his players. The young gun team of '03-'04 gave way to the juggernaut team of '04-'05 because of the arrival of one Diesel. And the fortunes for the Heat have changed since.

It seemed like both these teams were on a collison course for destiny last season. The Heat had the best record in the East, the Spurs the best in the West. Both were strong at home and strong on the road. And this may have been where the cold war started - with two super powers eyeing each other from afar, anticipating the final showdown.

The Heat felt they weren't strong enough at small forward and took a chance on Qyntel Woods, the super athletic but troubled talent let go by the Trailblazers. Woods, at the time, was selecting between the Heat and the Spurs.

Then there was Glenn Robinson. Rumors were flying that early in the season the Heat were thinking of dealing Eddie Jones away for Robinson from the Sixers. The deal made some sense as the 'Big Dawg' could fill in for the Heat at small forward and provide some more offense at the position. Big contracts could have been moved, too. But it never came to pass, and Robinson was released. Still a target for the Heat, although a mild one, the Spurs ended up scooping Robinson. In response to missing out on Woods? Or only to keep the Heat from landing Robinson and having one less weapon to face in a showdown?

Then there is the courtship of Michael Finley. Finley, as reports recently have stated, has decided to sign with the Spurs. It is widely known that the Heat and Phoenix were also favorites to sign the 32 year old veteran. The Heat could offer up their entire mid-level exception as well as a possible starting job and a chance to win a championship in the coming future. More money, a starting position and a chance at a ring. The Spurs could only realistically offer one of those things. Still, Finley signed with the Spurs.

The details are not yet revealed as to why. But there is one thing that does seem to be lingering here: is there indeed a cold war between the NBA superpowers the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs? Are they stockpiling talent while keeping their collective gazes fixed on the other side?

If there wasn't a cold war before, there certainly is one now.

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

The Education of the Miami Heat fan

So many in the media have begun to spin out of control over the chemistry issues with the new "Heatians" that have arrived in Williams, Posey, and Walker. Aside from the fact that we added two more "W's" to the roster, this shouldn't even be questioned as a positive.

We will detail, with statistical analysis, why this transaction will work for this team in a coming blog. So keep your eyes peeled. But what we do need to address here is the notion of basketball and what a Heat fan should take note of.

Know first and foremost, your team just got better. A 'helluva' lot better. The talent pool, regardless of all the emotional attachment to EJ and all the promise of a talent like Woods or even Butler, has gotten much thicker. Like cement-poured-in-water thick.

Let's take a very simplistic look at that notion. A team's goal is to win. Win as often as it can. To do that, you need players that can play better - and more consistently - than the other team. In other words, you got to have talent. More talent = more chances of winning. Good teams win games. Great teams win championships.

Now, the Heat have great talent. Sure, asterisk it with *on paper. And yes, we have seen great teams assembled not win it all. But more likely than not, you will see a great team on paper win it all than a not-so-great team on paper even come close.

Which brings us to the big 'chemistry' question. Is there such a thing as "bad chemistry"? Indeed there is - and you may have seen it with last year's Timberwolves or even the Chris Webber/Allen Iverson Sixers. But if there is such a thing as bad chemistry, then it is necessary to also honor a thing known as good chemistry.

But all of this is not the point. Chemistry, is just a general term for reflecting how a team plays together. And we honestly don't know quite yet how this team will play together - so be wary of anyone who claims to know how this team will perform. Especially in a sport like basketball where the very nature of "team" is most immediately illustrated as 5 guys decide to play against 5 other guys with only 1 basketball. In fact, it seems like the sport is designed for psychological disfunction.

As a Heat fan, you must realize that all things won't begin to click right away. This isn't football, South Florida. It isn't day after day of practice for one game. It isn't a season dictated by a measely 16 game schedule. No, this is about 82 games. And how a team grows over those 82 games. There is plenty of time to learn - and also plenty of time to learn about this team.

So read and enjoy all the media sensationalism about how the Heat may have ruined their chances and have somehow opened up Pandora's jar full of things like "bad chemistry" and "egotism" and "the '03-'04 Lakers". And remember the one simple principle we pointed out here today - greater talent means a greater chance at winning. The Heat, under the guidance of Pat Riley, have been able to achieve just that.

Now, let's leave it up to the players to decide.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Please Riley, scrap DJ


Know anyone in the league that would like a 3 point assassin for a PG? One that plays with his back to the basket - while taking the ball over half-court? How about one that has a patented karate-kick move used to ward off defenders? Or has so little lateral quickness and footspeed you would think he had cement in his shoes? You don't?

Me neither.

Especially not the Heat. Sorry, Damon Jones, you seem to have overvalued yourself. And thank you for doing so. Because the last point guard that did so was Anthony Carter - and thank God his agent couldn't file the papers on time. That little miscue not only afforded Pat Riley a mulligan on what would have been another terrible move (note: he was serving both as coach AND GM at the time) from a contractual perspective, but opened the door which lead to Lamar Odom's arrival. And eventually, that door was torn off the hinges for Shaq's entrance.

The Heat also has a history of making careers for point guards. Just ask Eric Murdock. Or Rafer Alston. Or witness the return of Timmy Hardaway. DJ would just be another in a long line of one-hit wonders that passed through Miami and gained from playing in a great system.

The latest reports out of Cleveland are that they are getting tired of waiting for DJ to decide. They have offered him, reportedly, a contract but the most they could work out to was $21.5M - or the $3.7 cap space extended for 5 years with raises built in. Considering he opted out of his $2M contract for this season, that figure seems to be in the right neighborhood. And it frightens me that Riley may be giving DJ what he wants - and that is why there is a delay in DJ's decision.

If the Heat match what Cleveland supposedly is offering, they will do so without really tapping into their mid-level exception - which is worht $5.1M. Now, this is smart because it allows the Heat to sign a couple of players without any penalty. If they chose not to sign DJ, they would still have to sign a backup PG but do it while using their mid-level exception - possibly in or near its entirety.

But that is the best option. There are several intriguing players available still that can not only fill the need of backup PG but can also be upgrades over DJ. Chris Duhon, who was a big part of the Baby-Bulls phenomenon, has signed an offer sheet with the Raptors for 3 years at around $2.5-3M per season. (He is a restricted FA and the Bulls are believed to match). Steven Blake, a Miami High product, is another option although also a restricted FA. Dan Dickau, who had a very productive season as the starter for the Hornets in 67 games last season, has also drawn some interest. Getting 13.2 points per game and 5.2 assists on that team is not half bad. Imagine what Dickau could do with the Heat.

All of these players will cost less than the $4M per season that DJ wants. Sure, you would have to use that mid-level exception to land one of these players, but you would also have to use about the same amount of the MLE to retain DJ's services anyway.

Why not upgrade the position? Go with a younger guy who is a better ball handler, passer and has more defensive skill and athleticism? Earl Watson is available as is Jannero Pargo.

So Pat, don't overpay for DJ. The Heat just attained some payroll flexibility in this latest trade, not to mention generated quite a buzz around the league and making you look even more like a genius along the way. Don't ruin that by overpaying for DJ who looks better than he really is on this Heat team.